Buyer Beware of Julio Jones in Fantasy Football

Julio Jones has found a new home for the 2022 regular season, as he signed a one-year contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just as training camps opened. The name carries weight, but that may be about it. Father Time is undefeated unless you are Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers in the regular season. Injuries have finally plagued Jones and that is just the start of a few concerns for the veteran. Can he be a trusted wideout for fantasy football in a loaded Bucs team?

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Jones Finally Fits Injury Label

Remember when Julio was deemed ‘injury prone’ despite being on the field weekly? That ended in 2020 when he played fewer than 14 games for the first time since 2013. Nagging hamstring injuries kept Jones to 19 games played out of 33 the past two seasons. He enters the 2022 season as a 33-year-old coming off two partial seasons.

When Jones is on the Field

The Jones signing makes more sense from an on-field football stance than it does for fantasy football. The Bucs adding Jones coincided with WR Chris Godwin (ACL) opening training camp as a practice participant. Godwin’s surprise return paired with Mike Evans and offseason addition Russell Gage adds legit competition for Jones. 2022 will be his first season outside of the top two wideout options on a team since his rookie season alongside Roddy White (2011). The only way he becomes a top option is if injuries plague Tampa’s receiver room. Evans and Godwin have missed games in their careers, but neither has had extended absences that allow teammates to step in and be starters and more fantasy-relevant.

Russell Gage may not be as much of a household name as Jones is, but he was signed to legitimate money in the offseason, including $20 million guaranteed. That is not money you pay a guy so he can ride the bench in favor of an aging receiver coming off an injury. QB Tom Brady also vouched for Gage’s addition.

In terms of personnel used on the field, Tampa Bay has used 11 personnel (three receivers) at least 61% of the time in two seasons with Brady under center, including 70% of the time on 538 passing downs in 2021. If Godwin has issues coming back from ACL surgery or another receiver misses extended time, Jones will become a lot more appealing.

There is also some added hope if Jones can secure the WR3 role in Tampa:

Something we don't talk about a lot, but may be more impactful than we want to admit is WR-by-committee situations pic.twitter.com/6wEp3gFljW

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) July 20, 2022

Jones would be closer to a full-time player in Tampa playing in three-wide sets compared to a minor role as a WR4 compared to others in a similar role across the NFL.

There is cold water that can be thrown on Jones even if he gets consistent playing time. The aforementioned injuries will remain a concern because of recent history and age, but the Bucs' offense did target running backs in passing situations. Running backs only accounted for 18.8% of Tampa’s targets, but did secure 22.4% of the team’s completions (79% completion rate). The offense could change with Todd Bowles as the head coach, but offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is returning in the same role.

When asked about Julio Jones, 4for4’s John Paulsen included a valuable nugget of information. Jones’ 1.76 yards per route run was a career-low, but still good enough for 31st among 110 eligible receivers. That was when Jones was a top-two option for the Titans in 2021, not a third or fourth.

Bottom Line

• Despite elite name value, Julio Jones will be battling for playing time and will see his value max out with injuries to other Buccaneer wideouts.
• Anything less than WR3 snaps will bury Jones’ fantasy prospects, especially when considering the role running backs play in Tampa Bay’s passing game.
• Jones’ Underdog ADP is 180.8 (WR78) with an 11-spot jump in the 24 hours after his signing was announced. His value is at his current ADP or worse. Wideouts going around Jones now and in the near future that are more appealing include DeVante Parker (WR64), Joshua Palmer (WR65), Robbie Anderson (WR69), Corey Davis (WR73), Kendrick Bourne (WR79), Curtis Samuel (WR80), A.J. Green (WR84), and Zay Jones (WR90).