Best Week 7 Prophet Exchange Bets: Burrowing for Value

This week's Prophet Exchange bets focus on two plays that are valuable for contrasting reasons in terms of recent play. Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice. You can read here for more on the benefits of using a sports betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let's see where the value lies in Week 7...

Week 7 Prophet Exchange Picks

Bengals -6.5 vs. Falcons

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -106 to +100.

After a slow start to the season, Joe Burrow and the Bengals' offense seem to have caught up to the defense and have won three of their last four, scoring 27+ points in each win. The Atlanta Falcons have covered every game this season, largely due to their offense, which has been able to move the ball on the ground consistently, leading the NFL in run DVOA.

The improvement from the Bengals offensively can largely be contributed to better play from their new-look offensive line. In the first two games of the season, Joe Burrow was sacked 13 times. In the four games since, he has only hit the dirt nine times. With Tee Higgins getting healthy and a porous Falcons defense getting beat up in the secondary, the big-play Bengals should be ready to roll at home.

Explosive plays for both sides could determine the value of this number. Cincinnati has been the eighth-best pass defense by DVOA, but is just league-average against the run. While Marcus Mariota has limited his mistakes, it is fair to wonder how that will change if forced to move away from the run game by a high-powered Bengals offense.

Being able to get Cincinnati inside of a touchdown, especially at even-money thanks to Prophet Exchange, gives the requisite value to make the bet.

Lions +7 @ Cowboys

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -107 to +100.

Taking a walk down narrative street before reading the play may make someone double-take. The last time we saw the Lions they were getting shut out and outclassed by a Patriots team that was led by, checks notes, Bailey Zappe. For the Cowboys, their injury report is getting shorter with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz all practicing in full.

Detroit is coming off their bye and their injury report is starting to look up with D'Andre Swift being limited in practice and Amon-Ra St. Brown practicing in full. Plenty of the explosiveness the Detroit offense showed before the bye that allowed them to stay in games was based on the abilities of Swift and St. Brown, especially after the catch/contact. The Lions are also one of the few teams in the NFL that has a quality offensive line to be able to possibly slow some of the impact of Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush. Jared Goff has shown—with reasonable protection—he can lead an explosive offense, and that may be required to keep it within a touchdown against the Cowboys.

Even with the skill position players returning for Dallas, it is fair to question the effectiveness of Dak Prescott in his first start. This was a hand injury that directly impacts the grip on the ball for Prescott. Russell Wilson showed last year how much the first start back from that type of injury can yield less-than-stellar results. In Wilson’s first game back after a fractured finger, he completed 50% of his passes, threw for 160 yards, and two interceptions.

The Lions' defense has been putrid this season, ranking 32nd in defensive DVOA, but with Jeff Okudah attempting to slow down Lamb, focusing on the Cowboys' run game and forcing Prescott to go to secondary options gives Detroit a chance to limit the big play ability of Dallas. With the ninth-ranked offense by DVOA to start, if Detroit can give Jared Goff enough time and the defense provides any resistance off the bye against a less-than-100% Dak Prescott-led Cowboys team, they can stay within a score and cash this bet.

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