Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 8 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last five weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Possibly the game most ripe for volume is the matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings. Over the last five weeks, Arizona and Minnesota ranked in the top ten in neutral-script pace. These teams also use no-huddle at the first (Cardinals) and third (Vikings) highest rates in the league, an indication that they like to keep things moving. While Arizona's offense had it's best outing last week, posting 42 points against the Saints, it was the first time that they scored more than 26 points in regulation. Minnesota has yet to top 30 points, but it has eclipsed 23 points in all but one game this season. The 49-point game total is the third-highest on the main slate, so this game has all the makings for a smash spot from some key players.
  • Action: target this game, including the ancillary players, in DFS and start all the key players with confidence
• Entering the season, expectations were relatively low for most of the AFC South teams, which has held true for the most part. But, the Tennessee Titans - riding a four-game winning streak - will head to Houston in a divisional matchup. However, this game may not be fruitful for fantasy purposes, given the lack of urgency with which these teams play. Over the last four weeks, the Texans and the Titans ranked in the bottom half in neutral-script pace and PROE. With a 40-point total, this game also has the second-lowest total of any game on the main slate, yet another indication that this should be a slugfest. Tennessee also has the second-fewest combined plays per game so far this season, a truer sense that volume will come at a premium this Sunday afternoon.
  • Action: start only Derrick Henry and Dameon Pierce and fade everyone else

Team Pass Rates

• There is not a single player on the Atlanta Falcons that is a must-start for fantasy football. On Sunday, when Atlanta went down 14-0 in the first quarter of the game, we got a glimpse into how the Falcons would play in a completely negative game script. How did they respond? By throwing the ball a total of THIRTEEN times! Kyle Pitts was targeted five times for an outstanding 38.4% target share, but he just has one game with more than 25 receiving yards. Meanwhile, after recording 13 receptions for 160 yards in the first two weeks, Drake London has just five targets combined in the last two weeks. Atlanta has yet to throw the ball more than 26 times in a game since Week 1 and has a -11.9% PROE this season because of it. With games against the Panthers (twice), Chargers, Bears, and Commanders, there is no reason to expect things to change in Atlanta. There just isn't enough volume to make these pass catchers valuable right now.
  • Action: sit Kyle Pitts and Drake London
• Through the first four weeks of the season, it looked like the Baltimore Ravens had a new offensive identity with a 4.7% PROE. This made sense because the Ravens hadn't been nearly as effective in the rushing game. However, over the past three weeks, Baltimore has reverted back to its old ways with a -7.2% PROE, the 6th-lowest rate in the league over that span. This directly coincides with the success they've had rushing, as their EPA per play has jumped from 0.009 in the first four weeks to 0.089 for the last three weeks. In Week 7, Baltimore hit a season-low -19.8% PROE. Even with a game against the Bucs (who just got trampled by the Panthers) on Thursday night, it looks like the Ravens will be acting more like we had expected them to, which only makes a few of their key pieces worth playing in fantasy.
  • Action: start Rashod Bateman (if healthy), Mark Andrews, and Gus Edwards

Running Back Usage

• With Christian McCaffrey shipped off to San Francisco, a lot of eyes were on the Panthers' backfield and how touches would be distributed between D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard. Overall it was a fairly even split between the two, with Foreman having a slight edge in snaps (50.9% to 45.3%) and opportunities (17 to 12). Hubbard did have the slight edge in routes run (11 to 10), though, and had one more target. But all indications are that this is going to be a committee approach moving forward, which was to be expected. From a fantasy perspective, this backfield may be more valuable than originally anticipated, as these two combined for 181 rushing yards against what was previously a solid Buccaneers defense. They were also both extremely efficient, with 3.58 RYOE per carry and 2.41 RYOE per carry for Foreman and Hubbard, respectively. I'm not saying that this level of efficiency will continue (it most certainly won't), but with two games against the Falcons in the next three weeks, they should each have some value as spot starts to fill in during bye weeks.
  • Action: hold D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard
• The backfield on the other side of the ball in the Bucs and Panthers matchup fared much, much worse. With a season-low 4.2 PPR points on Sunday, Leonard Fournette looks like he may be starting to lose his stranglehold on the workhorse role in Tampa Bay. After playing just six snaps in Week 3, rookie Rachaad White has played on 35.4% of the team's snaps in the past four weeks. White is also averaging just over eight opportunities per game (including 3.5 high-value touches per game) over that span. Most of his increased workload has come as a receiver, as Fournette's routes run percentage has dropped from 71.4% in the first three weeks to just 54.5% since Week 4, while White is up to 34.3%. This is notable because Tom Brady targets running backs at a 19.5% rate, which is in the league's top half, and his receivers have struggled to stay healthy all year. Though this offense looks devoid of any fantasy value right now, that makes it the perfect time to buy into it.
  • Action: buy Rachaad White

Wide Receiver Usage

• The New York Giants are winning games and they're doing so in unconventional ways, which I absolutely love. While this was an offense once avoided for fantasy purposes, it has recently shown some glimpses of optimism. Though the Giants still have a -4.8% PROE on the year, they have more volume to go around than the aforementioned Falcons, as New York has thrown the ball at least 25 times in all but two games— that's not a lot, but it'll do for now. In any case, Wan'Dale Robinson has proven himself a trustworthy option for Daniel Jones, as he's earned 12 targets in the last two games since he returned back from a three-week injury absence. He has still only run a route on just 58.8% of routes in those games, but that's given him a solid 0.30 targets per route run rate - an increase in routes should spell even more volume for Robinson. Behind him, Darius Slayton is a boom-or-bust option as the deep threat with his 14.8-yard average depth of target, and Marcus Johnson is getting plenty of wind sprints in this year as he's running a route on 89% of dropbacks but only has ten targets to show for it. Robinson is the only one I would trust on a team right now (and he gets a slight boost in PPR leagues)
  • Action: buy Wan'Dale Robinson
• A lot of the focus in San Francisco is on Christian McCaffrey, and rightfully so. But some interesting things have been happening to the 49ers wide receivers over the past couple of weeks that have caught my eye. Specifically with Brandon Aiyuk, who has inched himself closer and closer to being the top receiving threat for the 49ers. That likely won't happen while Deebo Samuel is around, but Aiyuk has 11 targets in each of the last two games and has yet to run a route on fewer than 90% of San Francisco's dropbacks in a single game this season. He's also been very versatile after the catch - among 56 wide receivers with at least 30 targets this season, Aiyuk ranks eighth with an average of 6.1 yards after the catch per reception. With the 49ers leaning slightly more pass-heavy with Jimmy Garroppolo (1.6% PROE), there should be enough to go around in this offense for Aiyuk to sustain his role as a WR3 or better in fantasy, even with McCaffrey coming into town.
  • Action: buy or hold Brandon Aiyuk

Tight End Usage

• With Mike Williams sidelined for a couple of weeks, Gerald Everett may see a bump in usage...or will he? Over the last three weeks, Everett's routes run rate has dropped, settling at a season-low 58.9% rate in Week 7's outing against the Seahawks. What is encouraging is that he had nine targets, which were the second-most for him in a game this season. But Keenan Allen will be another two weeks removed from his injury when the Chargers return from their Week 8 bye. Sitting at TE12 on a PPR points per game basis, someone desperate for tight end production may be willing to overpay for a middling option.
  • Action: fade Gerald Everett
• On Thursday night football of Week 6, Greg Dulcich came onto the scene with a long 39-yard touchdown catch in his first career game. He followed that up with a nine-target performance this past week, which was tied for second on the team in the game. Additionally, he hauled in six of those targets for 51 yards, securing his second straight game with double-digit PPR points. Dulcich has run a route on more than 70% of the team's dropbacks in both of his games and seems to have officially eclipsed Albert Okwuegbunam after he was a healthy scratch for the second-straight game. It's tough to trust much in this offense, but Dulcich offers fantasy managers an option for those hurting at tight end.
  • Action: add Greg Dulcich