Week 8 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Bills and Cowboys Victors at Home
With three large spreads and a big cluster of close matchups, picks may be a little tougher to decipher in Week 8. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
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Week 7 Recap
Thanks to losses by the Patriots and Packers, Week 7 was the third week in a row that my picks went 3-2. Baltimore, Kansas City, and Miami all came through, bringing my season record to 21-14 in this column.
Let’s move on to Week 8, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 8 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 8 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.
Favorite Favorites
Buffalo Bills vs. Packers
When the schedule was created, this looked like an exciting matchup, but the way 2022 has been panning out for the Pack, it could be rough. The Bills are strong on both sides of the ball and Green Bay just won’t be able to match them. Aaron Rodgers may muster up some fight to not get totally blown out, but the Packers should lose their fourth-straight contest.
We’re looking at an 11.5 spread in this game, with PoolGenius odds of 84% in favor of Buffalo. The public is selecting the Bills 96% of the time, so you’ll win or lose with your pool mates.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Bears
We all watched Chicago beat the Patriots on Monday night, and they’re likely beat-up after a short week. The Bears have allowed 20+ sacks and will face Micah Parsons and a tough Dallas defense. With Dak Prescott back and an efficient run game, this should be an easy one for Dallas at home.
The spread on this game is nine points, with win odds of 79% for the Cowboys by both PoolGenius and Vegas. Public bettors are rolling with Dallas 95% of the time, so your pool mates will be in the same boat with the selection.
Sensibly Priced Favorites
Miami Dolphins @ Lions
This could read as a trap game, but Miami has all the makings for a win this week in Detroit. The Lions' defense is extremely porous and won’t have enough to combat Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert. Offensive injuries have taken their toll on the Lions, while Miami has been playing very well on the other side of the ball.
The Dolphins are 3.5-point road favorites in this contest, with 63% win odds via Vegas and 61% courtesy of PoolGenius. Public bettors are going with Miami 87% of the time, which is lower than some other picks with similar spreads, like the Bengals (90%), so there is some value here.
Value Favorites
Seattle Seahawks vs. Giants
This should be a fun one, with an emphasis on the ground game for both teams. The Seahawks are three-point favorites in this contest with 59% Vegas odds to win at home. Seattle and New York are outproducing expectations so far in 2022, but I give the edge to the home team in what could be a shootout.
Despite Seattle being pegged as the favorite, just 54% of public bettors are riding with them this week, so there’s some solid value in making this pick.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Saints
This game also has a recipe for some shootout action, as both of these teams have had their sloppy moments. I’m giving the edge to the more well-rounded offense with a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr being able to pick apart the Saints’ struggling secondary. This could be a close one, but Vegas pulls out the win.
The Raiders are two-point road favorites in this tilt, with just 55% PoolGenius win odds. Only 61% of the public is taking Vegas, which presents some nice value over picks with similar spreads like the Titans (91%) and Jacksonville (82%).
Survivor Picks for Week 8
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 8 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Buffalo Bills vs. Packers (82%, 11.5-point favorites)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Steelers (81%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Bears (79%, 9.5-point favorites)
- Atlanta Falcons vs. Panthers (66%, 4.5-point favorites)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals (64%, 3.5-point favorites)
Pick Popularity
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 8 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Bears (30%)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Steelers (27%)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Packers (12%)
- Miami @ Lions (6%)
- Tennessee Titans @ Texans (5%)
Future Value
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 8, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (11.0)
- Philadelphia Eagles (7.8)
- Baltimore Ravens (5.6)
- Dallas Cowboys (4.4)
- San Francisco 49ers (3.4)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
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