The Fantasy Football Impact of Marvin Jones to the Detroit Lions

On Wednesday, March 29, Marvin Jones signed a one-year deal with the Detroit Lions, who he played with from 2016–2020. Coming off his worst statistical year since his rookie season, the 33-year-old Jones will look to recapture some of the success from his first go-round in Detroit. The Lions’ passing game is anchored by Amon-Ra St. Brown, but there are holes to fill beyond ARSB.

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Marvin Jones Receiving Profile

After Jones’ first full year with the Lions—and fourth healthy year in the league—he began to evolve as one of the better deep threats in football. As a primary deep threat, Jones peaked in 2017 when he finished as fantasy football’s WR13 in half-PPR points per game. In both 2017 and 2018, Jones ranked in the top 10 among wide receivers in average target depth.

In 2019, Jones’ responsibilities changed, and he played more from the inside—he went from running 26% of his routes from the slot in 2018 to 56% in 2019 (SportsInfoSolutions). Despite running more short and intermediate routes than early in his Lions career, Jones still put together a WR17 fantasy finish in 2019. Maintaining his slot usage in 2020, Jones posted similar per-game fantasy numbers before taking his talents to Jacksonville in 2021.

The move to the Jaguars marked a steep decline for Jones. With an ambiguous role in an offense that was abysmal in 2021 and evolving in 2022, the once-reliable WR2 posted some of the worse numbers of his career, bottoming out with just 5.9 half-PPR points per contest last season.

While the change in scenery certainly hurt Jones, his decline has been a fairly steady one, especially in terms of efficiency. Since averaging 1.9 yards per route run in 2017 (32nd among wide receivers with at least 40 targets), Jones hasn’t ranked better than 66th in yards per route run in any season. In both 2020 and 2021, Jones ranked outside the top 100 in yards per route run.

A declining player in his age-33 season is rarely a fantasy asset worth investing in but there will be pass-catching opportunities available in the Lions' passing game in 2023.

How Marvin Jones Fits into the Lions' Offense

Jones will return to Detroit in an offense that is much different than the one he left in 2020. With Matthew Stafford, Jones was part of a Lions offense that consistently ranked in the top half of the league in neutral passing rate, including two seasons in the top six. Last season, Detroit ran at the 10th-highest rate in neutral situations and threw deep at the 10th-lowest rate in the league.

Even with Detroit’s lean toward the running game, though, there is a pass-catching role to be carved out alongside standout wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. After the departure of tight end T.J. Hockenson halfway through 2022, the Lions failed to establish a solid number-two pass-catcher after St. Brown—Detroit was one of just two teams to end the season without two players reaching a target share of 13% or higher. Additionally, 27% of their 2022 targets and 31% of air yards are up for grabs. As a team that rarely threw deep, they could deploy Jones in that role. With the Jaguars last season, Jones was one of 17 players (minimum 40 targets) to post an average target depth above 13 yards.

Jones has been good enough in his career that it’s not inconceivable for him to have one more resurgence but his small contract hints that the Lions aren’t counting on it. Given their barren wide receiver depth chart and minimal investment in the position this offseason, the Jones signing most likely means that Detroit believes in Jameson Williams as their WR2, that they plan on addressing the position in the draft, or both.

After being drafted 12th overall in 2022, Williams was plagued by injuries in his rookie season and was only active for the last six games of the year. A burner built in the Will Fuller mold, Williams profiles as a deep man with enough skills to dominate as the Lions’ flanker while St. Brown mostly mans the slot.

With four picks in the first two rounds of this year’s NFL Draft, Detroit has plenty of ammo to take a shot at a wide receiver or top tight end prospect within the first two days.

Jones’ likely best-case scenario is the Lions’ WR3 with the possibility of some spike weeks if he and Willams can help stretch the field and give Jared Goff more downfield opportunities than he had last season.

Projecting the Lions’ Passing Attack in Fantasy Football

There’s no denying that St. Brown is the player to own in this offense, regardless of what else the Lions do this offseason. After ARSB, though, the door is wide open for anyone to step up and take on a fantasy-relevant role.

Although Marvin Jones had his best years in Detroit, this version of Jones is a role player that will likely fall behind Jameson Williams or an unknown rookie in the Lions’ target hierarchy. Unfortunately for fantasy players, Williams’ potential is already baked into his ADP and the Jones signing is unlikely to change that.

As the WR30 off the board, Williams is being drafted 54th overall in recent best ball leagues. Early 4for4 rankings have Williams as fantasy football’s WR46. The potential for the Lions to add pass-catchers in the NFL Draft introduces as much downside as upside to Williams’ 2023 fantasy football outlook. Unless there is a radical change in ADP, drafters should be looking to acquire Williams primarily when he falls in fantasy drafts.

Adding Jones doesn’t move the needle for Goff. Currently going as the QB16 on Underdog, Goff is 4for4’s QB18. Best ball tournament players who draft St. Brown or Williams can easily draft Goff as a Tier-3/Tier-4 quarterback stacking partner. Jones is going largely undrafted and can be tacked on as a last-round double stack but can mostly be avoided in fantasy drafts otherwise.

The Bottom Line

• Marvin Jones has seen multiple role changes in his career and he peaked in his first stint in Detroit. With steadily declining efficiency, Jones had two of the worst fantasy seasons of his career in Jacksonville.
• Jones returns to Detroit as a low-risk signing for the Lions. With Amon-Ra St. Brown locked in as the team’s top pass-catcher and one of the best fantasy targets in 2023 fantasy leagues, Jones will compete with second-year wide receiver Jameson Williams—and possibly a rookie—for the number two role behind St. Brown.
• Given Williams’ Draft pedigree and skill set, it’s likely that Jones’ best outlook is as the Lions’ third option that could offer some spike weeks if he and Williams team up to stretch the field, something Detroit struggled to do in 2022.
• Jones is nothing more than a late-round flier in best ball tournaments—it’s best to target Jones as the final piece to a double stack in drafts that have already paired Jared Goff with St. Brown or Williams.
• The public is already overzealous on Williams and the Jones signing shouldn’t impact that sentiment. As 4for4’s WR46, Williams is going off the board as the WR30, leaving little meat on the bone in an offense that favors the run and has two running backs that are capable pass-catchers.