Greg Dulcich: The Next Great Fantasy Football Tight End

The tight end position is an annual wasteland of disappointment in fantasy circles. Every year, we try to talk ourselves into a litany of options before the season begins, only to be reluctantly streaming the position by midseason. Last year, 88.9 half-PPR fantasy points separated Travis Kelce from the #2 tight end, T.J. Hockenson. Another 50.1 points separated Hockenson from the #7 tight end, Cole Kmet. Talent at the position drops off quickly, and fantasy managers are clamoring every year for another tight end to emerge as a legitimate weekly fantasy option.

Sometimes, that player emerges. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Mark Andrews all have had their “emergent” seasons in the last five years. It happens sometimes. But for every one of those stellar breakout players, there are dozens of players like Gerald Everett, Irv Smith Jr., and Noah Fant who fail to live up to the offseason optimism.

Greg Dulcich may become another afterthought when all is said and done, but when I look around the league and try to find the next tight end to break into elite fantasy territory, Dulcich seems the most likely option. Luckily, he doesn’t cost very much with a 12th-round ADP on Underdog right now.

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A Promising Rookie Season

Bookended by hamstring injuries, Greg Dulcich showed flashes in his 10 games as a rookie. He averaged 3.3 receptions on 5.5 targets and 41.1 receiving yards per game. He only scored two touchdowns, as the Broncos offense was dead last in the league in points scored in 2022. Still, he was the TE12 in half-PPR fantasy points during his healthy span of games.

Most importantly, Dulcich was on the field for 76% of the team’s offensive snaps while he was healthy. No other tight end on the roster eclipsed 35%, and he was tied with Jerry Jeudy for the most targets on the team during that span as well. Basically, when Dulcich was healthy, he had a prominent receiving role on the team.

Stylistically, Dulcich was everything the team hoped he’d be as a receiving option coming out of UCLA. He was able to line up inline and use short-area footwork to get quality releases. He was able to line up in bunch formations and slide through coverages to stretch the seam. He was also able to find soft spots in zone coverage. Here’s a video from Highlight Heaven that shows him doing all three of these things on the same drive against Jacksonville:

On the first play, notice him slide by number one overall pick Travon Walker, who should’ve given him a bump there, and settle in the zone. He has the awareness to feel the ball coming as soon as the middle linebacker bites on the crossing route, overloading the weak side. Dulcich identifies the soft spot in the zone and then whips around for an easy first down.

On the second play, he releases from the tight formation and breezes by the first level of defenders. Russell Wilson makes a great throw to find another soft spot before the corner Darious Williams can pick up Dulcich. Another first down.

On the third play, the defenders choose to double the wide receiver on the deep post route, leaving Dulcich 1-on-1 with a safety. That’s easy for the big tight end as he easily gets over the top of the safety on a deep corner.

Basically, Dulcich is a receiving weapon, and the team brought him in last year with the intention of using him in the passing game. He only lined up inline on 33.5% of snaps last season (per PFF) and was outside or (mostly) in the slot the rest of the time. And the Broncos see him as a playmaker. His ADOT was third in the league among tight ends with at least 20 targets, behind only Kyle Pitts and Darren Waller, per Pro Football Reference.

Tight End Progression

Tight ends often take a little time to become top-notch fantasy options. While that trend is starting to inch in the other direction with players like Dulcich, Pat Freiermuth, and Kyle Pitts (as a rookie) bucking the trend in recent years, it’s still smart money to assume a rookie tight end will be a better dynasty asset than a productive redraft option. I took a look at players who finished in the top three in recent years at the position and looked up their rankings in half-PPR fantasy points per game over the first three years of their careers.

Ranks were taken from our outstanding Fantasy Points Browser Tool. N/A means they didn't score enough to warrant a ranking. Note that Waller’s Year 3 in the above table is actually his fourth year, but he was out of the league in what would’ve been his Year 3 season (2017).

None of these elite fantasy tight ends finished as TE1s in their rookie year. Waller, Schultz, and Ertz didn’t make it there until Year 3. However, five of the seven made significant jumps in their second seasons, and four put up TE1 numbers.

Now let’s look at last year’s top-10 tight ends in half-PPR fantasy points per game:

*Again, Waller’s seventh NFL season, but eighth since his rookie year, as he was out of the league in 2017.

Only the 10th-place Pat Freiermuth logged fewer than three seasons prior to last year. That’s less encouraging than the first table in regard to a second-year boost for Dulcich, but I think it re-iterates the point that tight ends take time to progress into elite fantasy options.

Dulcich doesn’t have to take a massive leap in order to justify where he’s being taken, but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that he can, given his skill set and the new coaching staff in Denver. Dulcich could very well be the next Andrews, Hockenson, or Kittle who takes a huge Year 2 leap.

Sean Payton’s Arrival

The one-year Nathaniel Hackett experiment was a dismal failure in Denver, but the Broncos were able to lure Sean Payton back to the game to replace him. Payton will immediately be tasked with trying to get Russell Wilson back on track after a career-low 36.7 QBR and his worst TD ratio (3.3%) since 2015.

One way to do just that might be to get their talented receiving tight end featured in the offense. Payton had already glowed about Dulcich and even said he could take on the “joker” position in the offense, a position Payton has likened to Reggie Bush, Alvin Kamara, and Taysom Hill.

Payton has been good for tight ends in the past. Mostly, we remember Jimmy Graham, but Taysom Hill, Jared Cook, and Ben Watson have all delivered TE1 seasons under Sean Payton.

So as long as Greg Dulcich isn’t Coby Fleener, there’s precedent here for significant usage under Payton.

Bottom Line

• Ranked just outside TE1 territory and going as the TE14 on Underdog right now, Dulcich is a low-cost option with sky-high potential.
• The offense almost has to be better after ranking dead last in points scored last season and with Sean Payton now at the helm.
• Some of the best current tight ends took a big leap in their second seasons.
• Dulcich profiles as a receiving tight end who can stretch the seam and be a weapon in the passing game.
• He also has amazing hair.