Fantasy Football: Tyler Higbee is the Rams No. 2 Pass-Catcher

The much-anticipated departure of Gerald Everett coincided perfectly with the arrival of Matthew Stafford in 2021, and the subsequent glow-up for tight end Tyler Higbee was fresh on every fantasy player’s mind. Things started off wonderfully as the new teammates kicked off the year with a 5-68 stat line on six targets, but the rest of the season would see Higbee hit 50+ yards on only three more occasions.

The subsequent 2022 season started in another promising manner, as Higbee had a crazy 48 targets through the Rams' first five games, yet still ended the season as fantasy’s TE18 with 6.8 half-PPR points per game. That would be the third-straight season he had finished at or below TE15. With the two biggest pieces of the offense (Stafford and Cooper Kupp) back to full health, can Higbee finally break through in 2023 and deliver the type of top-10 performance we’ve been waiting years for? Let’s investigate.

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A Steady Part of the Rams’ Offense

While it feels like fantasy managers have been waiting for eons for the Tyler Higbee breakout, it did come in some form during the 2022 season. The team was scrambling for options to catch the ball, and Higbee finally eclipsed 100 targets in a season, turning them into a very respectable 72-620-3 receiving line.

At a position that relies so heavily on touchdowns, his numbers were still good enough for the overall TE9 finish, even though he only found the end zone those three times. According to 4for4’s Fantasy Points Browser, this would turn out to be his best fantasy year since finishing eighth in points at the tight end position in 2019.

It’s understandable to be trepidatious about Higbee netting a career-high in targets during the same year Cooper Kupp only played seven games. On the same token, Kupp still gobbled up 98 targets, and they both had to play with Bryce Perkins, John Wolford, and Baker Mayfield while Matthew Stafford spent nearly half the season on the sidelines.

Looking at 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, we can see that Tyler Higbee had the fourth-highest target share among tight ends in 2022. In addition, he had the lowest average depth of target (3.0) among all qualifying tight ends, hinting that the team may want to use him as their dump-off, high-target option moving forward. Their offense is certainly devoid of eye-popping talent after Cooper Kupp, and they don’t have many options coming out of the backfield.

Where Else Is the Ball Going to Go?

While the offense as a whole looked as if it were reeling from a Super Bowl hangover last season, Higbee performed more-or-less, right in line with where we should have expected him. Over the last two seasons, around 8.0 half-PPR points qualify as a TE1 finish on any given week. In 32 games since Matthew Stafford arrived in Los Angeles, Tyler Higbee has hit that total 12 times, or 37.5% of his games played. Higbee would hit that 8.0 number three times in Stafford’s eight games missed (exactly the same 37.5% hit rate, oddly enough), including a massive 11-target performance from Baker Mayfield during Week 16 of 2022.

That sample size doesn’t explain Higbee's 20.4% target share with Stafford at the helm, the sixth-highest mark among the league’s tight ends, and second on the team behind only Cooper Kupp. On top of that, Higbee had weeks down the stretch where he shockingly operated as the team’s No. 1 pass-catcher while they were struggling to find firepower.

*receiver air conversion ratio calculated as receiving yards divided by air yards

With a lack of capital heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams didn’t have much wiggle room to bolster the above pass-catching group. In fact, the team would select backup quarterback Stetson Bennett before they drafted a skill position player, with two (WR Puka Nacua and TE Davis Allen) coming in the fifth round. The only additional help they received in free agency came in the form of 29-year-old Demarcus Robinson, who had spent much of his career buried on the Kansas City Chiefs depth chart. At least some of these additions will need to be used to fill the hole that the Allen Robinson trade to the Steelers left behind, but A-Rob was also coming off of a career-low 0.93 yards per route run in his age-29 season.

With an obvious role in an offense devoid of playmakers, Tyler Higbee has a clear workman-like road to compile an overall TE1 season yet again. By simply keeping his target share where it is, there is also room for upside, as referenced in our best ball quarterback rankings; we should expect significantly more volume from this offense, given that the 2022 version was Sean McVay's first unit to average less than 62 plays per game (58.9) and below a 60% pass rate (58.6%) in neutral game script.

There are no hints that a change in usage is in store for Tyler Higbee, while a full season of receiving a 20%+ target share from Matthew Stafford is enough to consider the veteran a top —if frustrating— fantasy option for the 2023 season.

The Bottom Line

• With too many holes to fill elsewhere, Tyler Higbee is again in line to receive a vast majority of the team’s TE targets, and could very likely finish second on the team behind Cooper Kupp.
• While dealing with a rotation of quarterbacks behind an ailing Matthew Stafford, Higbee still finished as the overall TE9 in 2022, even though he only found the end zone three times.
• Because of where he operates in the offense, it’s difficult to expect many spike weeks, but Higbee offers a higher weekly floor than other fringe-TE1 options, such as Cole Kmet, Greg Dulcich, or Dalton Kincaid.
• Higbee is currently coming off of Underdog draft boards as the TE16 in the 13th round. We have him slightly higher as the TE14 in our current Underdog rankings. You can very cheaply pair Stafford with Higbee to make a low-risk wager that a bounceback is in store for the Rams' offense. Looking at my own personal best ball exposure, Tyler Higbee is my second-highest tight end player exposure at this point in the summer.