NFC East Odds & Bets: Best 2023 NFL Futures
A case can be made that tying up funds in NFL futures for 5+ months is a pretty -EV way to handle your money. But let's be honest; you've made more egregious -EV decisions in your life than getting down on the Commanders to make the playoffs in early July.
We're starting our Divisional Preview Series on Move The Line this week, and a ton of work goes into that on my end. I deep dive into all aspects of each roster, along with scheduling anomalies and anything else that might matter in preparation for each episode. I'll go division by division, in lock-step with each week's show, giving you my elevator pitch for each team and the best way to bet on them in the futures market.
This was a fruitful venture for those that tailed in 2022. In this space, I went 20-11-1 overall (+9.55 units), going 4-0 in the NFC East. This season, the NFC East faces the AFC East and NFC West while rotating through the NFC North, AFC West, and NFC South for their "unique 3" opponents.
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NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles clearly benefited from the league's easiest schedule in 2022. They made the Super Bowl difficult to handicap because their path to Glendale was about as clean as any team in history, but it was obvious that despite that fact, the Eagles were legit contenders and the class of the NFC. A repeat trip to the Super Bowl always seems to come with more obstacles than the initial run, and that is the case for the 2023 version of the Philadelphia Eagles.
This offseason was fraught with turnover in Philadelphia, both on the field and among the coaching staff, which is not uncommon in this era of the NFL. Coordinators get poached for head coaching positions, and it's difficult to maintain year-over-year continuity among your starting lineup. Thanks in large part to Executive VP Howie Roseman, the bones of this roster and organization are so strong that they're built to sustain last year's run despite it all. Brian Johnson takes over for Shane Steichen (IND) as offensive coordinator, but he's been the quarterback coach for the past two seasons, minimizing any upheaval in terms of Jalen Hurts' development and familiarity with the system that's maximized his skill set so well the past two seasons. New defensive coordinator Sean Desai is a wash at worse, considering former DC Jonathan Gannon (ARZ) was not known to be an elaborate difference-maker as a defensive play-caller.
We should anticipate some level of regression as it pertains to the Eagles' elite pass-rushing efficiency last season, but it should remain a strength in 2023. They also ran hot in terms of health, losing the fourth-fewest adjusted games due to injury in 2022, according to Football Outsiders.
Jalen Hurts' contract extension was another big offseason storyline, but his development is why I remain bullish on this team. Hurts will be dropping back and running behind one of the league's best offensive lines, and they've added depth this offseason despite losing Isaac Seumalo (PIT) in free agency. The pass-catching duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith is one of the very best in the league, and if a tougher schedule and other mitigating factors force the Eagles to increase their pass rate (56%, 22nd in the league), Hurts is equipped to handle it. For the second straight year, his yards-per-attempt mark (8.0) and adjusted completion percentage (78.0%) improved, while his time to throw (2.86 seconds) and turnover-worthy play rate (1.9%) dropped. All encouraging signs that Hurts' 2023 performance has roots.
An argument against the 2023 Eagles often includes the numerous new faces on the defensive side of the ball. Javon Hargrave (SF) will be missed, but the Eagles' depth at both interior defensive line and EDGE remains as good as any club in football. They also return both starting corners, James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who anchor this defense at the perimeter. They've added cornerback depth behind them while turning over starters at linebacker and safety, which is likely a net positive both in terms of salary allocation and play on the field.
I love that the Eagles get a soft opening schedule, which will help the learning curve of the new coordinators and young starters on defense. They're staring at a 5-0 start before the meat of their schedule kicks in. They're currently favored in 14 of 17 games, and barring an injury to Hurts, should be primed to repeat as division champs.
Best Bet: NFC East Division Winner (-105, Ceasars)
Caesars Sportsbook Bonus
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys needed a sacrificial lamb after another early playoff exit in 2022. While a viable case for head coach Mike McCarthy could be made, it quickly became evident that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore would take the sword. McCarthy will take over play-calling duties, with Brian Schottenheimer taking the empty offensive coordinator title by name only. I'm not sold on Kellen Moore being the problem, but time will tell.
McCarthy's been vocal about leaning more on the run, which could be framed as a zing to the NFL's pass-happy zag, but it feels more reactionary based on quarterback Dak Prescott's career-high 15 interceptions in 2023. Prescott is one of the NFC's top signal callers when protected and surrounded by above-average playmakers. The offensive line should continue to be a strength if they can avoid cluster injuries, while more Tony Pollard touches are a net positive for the offense as a whole. The passing game is better equipped to thrive this season, so pivoting away from it seems short-sighted. CeeDee Lamb flew solo last season, soaking up 156 targets as Michael Gallup battled back from his 2021 ACL injury. This offseason, Gallup has talked about how much better he feels heading into the 2023 season, and the addition of Brandin Cooks, who's topped 1,000 yards in six of the past eight seasons, gives this team a top-tier trio at wide receiver and adds a field-stretching element that was severely lacking for most of last season.
Defensively, Micah Parsons is such a force multiplier that he can make up for some of the weaknesses of this unit. They'll still be a team that opposing defenses can run on, but first-round pick Mazi Smith's learning curve will impact that greatly. This secondary is strong on the back end, supported by Parsons' unrivaled ability to wreak havoc on the pocket. Stephon Gilmore comes over from Indianapolis and has dealt with multiple injuries since his 2019 Defensive Player of the Year win, and while he's not that player anymore, he's still an excellent addition across from Trevon Diggs at cornerback. Gilmore's addition allows DaRon Bland to lock down the slot, and the trio of Donovan Wilson, Malik Hooker, and Jayron Kearse at safety is one of the best in the league. Dallas continues to benefit from defensive coordinator Dan Quinn turning down head coaching interviews.
Even if you think Mike McCarthy messes this up, his roster is still good enough to make its way into the playoffs considering how poor the NFC is this season. Dallas is currently favored in 11 of 17 games, with a juiced-up win total of 9.5 (-154, FanDuel). Laying that, or the current price of -400 to make the playoffs, is not advisable, so bullish Cowboys backers should look at their division price, which is just short of 2/1.
Best Bet: NFC East Second Place (+130, BetMGM)
BetMGM Bonus
New York Giants
Even the face-painting Giants fans among us have to admit that last year was an unexpected ride. Brian Daboll's work was rewarded with a playoff appearance and Coach of the Year honors in his first year in New York.
The first-year head coach schemed layups for quarterback Daniel Jones, who set a career-high in adjusted-completion percentage at 81.1% with a career-low average depth of target at 6.4 yards per attempt. Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka also leveraged Jones's ability as a runner, with Jones setting career-high marks in attempts, yards, and touchdowns. Eliminating turnovers was paramount to the Giants' success. Daniel Jones threw just five interceptions on the season and drastically cut down on the fumbling issue that plagued his first two seasons in the league. Skeptics would argue that they were on the right side of variance, while I also believe all the parties involved deserve credit for creating and executing a scheme that could keep them in games. Two things can be true at the same time.
They'll need to be on the right side of variance again in 2023 to come close to last season's result, and I'm skeptical at best. They traded for former Raiders' tight end Darren Waller this offseason, and the wide receiver room is loaded with third-option receivers and slot guys. I don't know who will emerge from this group, but it's likely whoever wins the war of attrition since this group has struggled to stay healthy in the NFL.
Last year's defensive performance was even more unsustainable than what we saw from the offense, and that's hard to say because it wasn't even good. The Giants were 29th in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA metric and 28th in EPA per play, and despite Wink Martindale's aggressive blitz-centric man-to-man-heavy scheme, the Giants were dead last with six interceptions on the season. They dealt with injuries on defense all season long, and it was hard to hide at certain points. If Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux can stay healthy in 2023, they should be improved, but overall, this is still a bottom-10 defense with more questions than answers in the secondary.
The Giants come in near the middle of the pack in terms of strength of schedule, a stark contrast to last year's favorable path, and they're also on the wrong side of the rest advantage in numerous late-season spots. They're currently favored in just six of their 17 games this season, so getting plus money (+110, Caesars) on under 7.5 wins is worth considering. I believe that the Giants will remain competitive, especially considering how weak the conference is overall. Still, I'm willing to lay a bit of juice on them sitting out this post-season.
Best Bet: Giants To Make The Playoffs - NO (-170, Caesars)
Washington Commanders
Rarely does a team's record perfectly encapsulate their season, but an 8-8-1 finish by the Commanders in 2022 felt right. It was a pretty uneventful season overall, highlighted by their Monday Night road win in Philadelphia, which ended their divisional foes' quest for an undefeated season. 2023 brings lots of change to the nation's capital, with a new ownership group, offensive play-caller, and starting quarterback.
Let's start with Eric Bieniemy, who's made the rounds for the past four or five Januarys in an effort to land a head coaching gig and has come up short. Getting to work with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes was a blessing and a curse for Bieniemy. Whatever the opposite of being unable to wash the stink off of yourself is, that was Bieniemy's challenge in every interview. Though unusual, I think it was wise of him to take a lateral move and head to Washington, where he'll now get to answer those questions with 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell under center.
Howell was a highly regarded prospect entering the 2021 season at North Carolina, but a handful of factors pushed him out of the first two days of the draft, falling all the way to Washington at pick 144. We didn't get to see much of Howell as a rookie, but all reports and talking points coming out of Washington is that it's Howell's job. I thought this would be a quarterback competition between Howell and NFL Village Bicycle Jacoby Brissett, but I understand wanting to see what the young guy has to offer. If the offensive line can hold up, Howell will have an above-average supporting cast of skill position players to help elevate him, which leads to the optimism in Howell that we've seen this preseason.
Defensively, the Commanders can roll out the league's best front four if everyone's healthy. There's a trickle-down effect to their impact that can help hide deficiencies in the back half, but it only works if they get a full season out of Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young. They used their first-round selection in April's draft on cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who'll need to hit the ground running because Washington's depth in the secondary is a weakness.
Overall, there's a wide range of outcomes for this squad. There's a path where Howell meets his 2021 preseason expectations, the defense is among the best in the league, and this team is in the playoff hunt come December. Also in the range of outcomes? The Commanders are picking early in next April's draft. They're currently only favored in two of 17 games, and from Week 10 on, their schedule on paper appears to be quite challenging. Caesars has lined their division win total at 2.5. An optimistic sweep of the Giants would still require the Commanders to steal one from the Eagles or Cowboys or two if they split with the Giants.
