SharpClarke Divisional Preview: NFC North

Jul 14, 2023

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As training camps start up around the league, we continue our division-by-division analysis with a look at the NFC North. After the Vikings cruised to a division title last season, it looks wide open this year, with the tightest range of odds of any division in the NFL from top to bottom. Let's talk about what we can expect from each team in 2023.

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Detroit Lions

Narrative

The best off-season move for the Lions was not actually a move. Despite getting head coaching job interviews, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to stay and continue to build something in Detroit with Dan Campbell. In the same way that Sean McVay maximized Jared Goff in L.A., Johnson has designed a scheme that is built to succeed if the quarterback can just take advantage of opportunities. Similar to a Shanahan-style offense, Detroit runs multiple plays out of the same set frequently, keeping defenses on their toes. A strong offensive line forces defenders to focus on the run, which opens up play action, sweeps, and space downfield. Many plays are designed to set up explosive plays later, as Johnson understands the importance of sequencing. They also are not afraid to get creative on high-leverage downs, as we saw when they extinguished the Packers' playoff hopes in demoralizing fashion in Week 18 and pulled out a comeback win against the Jets on a 51-yard touchdown pass on 4th and 1.

They'll miss T.J. Hockenson, whom they traded to Minnesota last year, and D'Andre Swift, who is now in Philadelphia. They'll also have to wait another six games to see exciting second-year wideout, Jameson Williams. But they got David Montgomery and Jamyr Gibbs to handle the backfield, which should be just fine behind this stellar offensive line. Marvin Jones also returns to Detroit to at least play the role of a seasoned veteran, and they drafted an exciting tight end in Sam LaPorta early in the second round. Overall, there are more than enough pieces for Johnson to work with. Defensively, they upgraded in the secondary and will hope Aidan Hutchinson takes a step forward in Year 2, but there are still more questions than answers. The Lions' offense might be enough to win the division, but they'll need better defensive play to make a deep playoff run. It may only take a league-average defense, and the good news is that defensive performance can fluctuate from year to year. Ultimately, there is a lot to be excited about in Detroit.

Betting Approach

Of course, the Lions are not sneaking up on anyone. They finished strong and have been anointed strong favorites in the division. I am not more optimistic than the market is; I think people have been paying attention. Plus, a team reliant on a quarterback outplaying his talent due to scheme and offensive line play can be particularly vulnerable to injury. On a week-to-week basis, it's safer to back the Lions when they project to dominate on the offensive line. It might take a while for them to be favored by enough in games where they have a clear advantage and can run up the score in favorable situations. But in a tight game, I'm not sure I'd want to need a big play from Goff to win.

Minnesota Vikings

Narrative

You don't need me to tell you the Vikings' 13-4 record last season was a fluke. Nobody bought it, and that's why the betting market projects them to win 8 or 9 games this season despite no significant changes to the team structure. But I am not of the belief that all one-score games are toss-ups. Kirk Cousins has now engineered 15 game-winning drives in the past three seasons, and watching the Quarterbacks documentary on Netflix has genuinely impacted my view of Cousins as a player. His off-field training habits and attitude towards mistakes helped explain how he has reached his peak as a player in the NFL and exceeded expectations time and again. Still, they did escape with some lucky wins, and I expect regression. Losing Adam Thielen doesn't hurt much, especially with T.J. Hockenson coming on strong and rookie Jordan Addison joining the receiving corps. But Dalvin Cook was a true weapon, even as he declined as a runner. In particular, he was an excellent safety valve for an explosive play into a blitz. That will be something to watch. They also have some question marks along the offensive line. They will need to stay healthy to keep Cousins clean, which is very important for his game.

Perhaps the most exciting off-season development for the Vikings was replacing Ed Donatell with Brian Flores at defensive coordinator. The Vikings played so passively last year, putting too much pressure on an aging secondary and ultimately letting good, methodical offenses march up and down the field with ease. They couldn't even stop the one-dimensional Giants in the playoffs, and it cost them. Flores projects to bring the heat and creativity after demonstrating what he can do in Miami. His defenses create disruption and, hopefully, turnovers. There is always a question of talent with an aggressive defense because it can go sideways against good teams that capitalize on mistakes. But they might be better against bad quarterbacks this year, creating some actual margin to their victories. I am open-minded about this team improving on defense, which could help them emerge from a division without a clear powerhouse in it.

Betting Approach

Earlier in the off-season there might have been some value on the Vikings due to a possible overreaction by the market to the downside. But that has been ironed out now, and I think the prices on Minnesota are fair. I will miss being able to project a consistently passive defense on a week-to-week basis with a new coordinator and will have to adapt to how this defense looks under Flores. Right now, I do not see any strong angles, so I will just react to what I see with this team.

Green Bay Packers

Narrative

It's tough to have an opinion on the Packers without talking about Jordan Love. I haven't seen enough meaningful film to make a judgment on Love, and there is very little historical precedent for a first-round pick sitting for three years before being named the starter. But we do know some of the things that help a quarterback in his situation find success. These things pretty much fall unanimously in Love's favor. Matt LaFleur is a very good play-caller, and the offensive line projects to give Love solid protection. They have a creative and effective rushing attack to take the pressure off and a talented defense that is capable of keeping them in games. So the situation is solid. In addition, when a team moves on from a long-time franchise quarterback who played poorly in his final season, the ensuing performance is typically better than the perceived drop-off. Aaron Rodgers was not great last year, so Love doesn't need to be Peak Rodgers for the Packers to improve. Finally, highly-drafted quarterbacks who sit for a while before starting have achieved massive success at times in the past. It's not automatic, of course. But it's squarely within the range of outcomes.

The schedule looks exploitable if Love can get the job done. By my numbers, they face only two teams currently ranked within my top-10, in Weeks 11 and 13. This provides a potential ramp for Love to get comfortable before they face any really difficult matchups. The division is winnable, and the NFC is wide open. If Love is bad, none of this will matter. They'll be a mediocre team. But given the true range of outcomes for Love's performance, this team has some massive upside. They'll need to stay healthy on the offensive line and do a better job scheming on defense. Last year Joe Barry was a problem, including a nonsensical game plan in Week 1 in which I saw linebackers and defensive ends playing coverage on Justin Jefferson at some point. Despite this, they retained Barry. The silver lining is they did shut down Jefferson in the re-match, which they won 41-17. If they can play more like they did in that game on defense, this team has sneaky Super Bowl contender potential. Every year it seems a team comes out of nowhere. If I had to pick one for this season, it would be the Packers.

Betting Approach

It feels like the market is slowly catching up to this team's potential. The Packers' odds to win the division and go over their win total (generally 7.5 wins) have been creeping up all off-season as bettors are putting the pieces together. I still don't think they are getting enough credit, particularly with respect to fat tail outcomes to the upside. I would not want to go into this season without some kind of positive exposure to the Packers. I will be more cautious week-to-week because Love is still very much a question mark. But in situations where they project to face an easy defense, they should be a team to back.

Chicago Bears

Narrative

It's Year 3 of the Justin Fields era, and things have never looked better for him. The addition of D.J. Moore has a cascading positive impact on the offense because now Darnell Mooney can get more favorable matchups, and Chase Claypool can be a part-time role player, where he is at his best. The offensive line looks improved, and Fields got more comfortable getting outside the pocket last season. The offense can compete if the coaches can find a way to maximize Fields' strengths and each player's abilities. But two things curb my enthusiasm here. First, Fields has not been a good quarterback. People suffer from what I call highlight bias when a player's best plays look incredible, but their down-to-down consistency is lacking. To be a top NFL quarterback, consistency is key. But his incredible play-making ability (both rushing and passing) shows up in highlights. His frequent misses and bad sacks typically do not. Second, Fields is a major injury risk. He does not avoid contact well, often waiting until the last moment to slide. This induces a lot of late-hit penalties and other hits that do not bode well for his long-term health. He also takes a lot of sacks, which are a big source of injury for quarterbacks. He has been injured in each of the last two years, and I would be hesitant to bank on him playing 17 injury-free games.

Still, the biggest problem for Bears fans remains the defense. They added some good players, particularly at linebacker, but that will not transform anything here. They tried to prevent deep plays with a more passive approach on defense but were ultimately unable to get much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This led to serious struggles against teams that were comfortable taking the easy throws. They finished with the highest yards per attempt and the fifth-highest completion percentage allowed. So even when the offense was clicking, they struggled to win games. I expect the offensive upgrades will lead to more close games, but it will be tough to push past being a league-average team at best, with Fields at quarterback without a transformation on defense. I don't see it. The downside risk is huge, particularly if Fields gets hurt. But I also struggle to see the high upside here. I don't even have an appetite for long shots on this team because too much has to go right.

Betting Approach

There is probably too much to like to outright fade the Bears, or at least too much unknown. Instead, I'd look for another team in the division to be bullish on by proxy. Once the season gets started, Fields is a stronger bet when facing man defenses that tend to turn their heads away from Fields and create rushing lanes. And their defense can be exploited by methodical offenses. If these edges hold, there may be value in playing spots with the Bears regardless of whether they match, meet, or fall short of overall expectations.

Market Projections

Based on aggregating currently-available odds, the betting markets project the following for each team:

Lions - 9.6 wins, ~41% chance to win the NFC North

Vikings - 8.7 wins, ~23% chance to win the NFC North

Packers - 7.6 wins, ~18% chance to win the NFC North

Bears - 7.6 wins, ~18% chance to win the NFC North

Best Bet

As much as I like Ben Johnson and the Lions' offensive outlook, the market prices offer no value to me. Instead, I'm looking to capture the Packers' upside in a weak NFC. If Jordan Love can live up to his potential, the Packers will be right in the mix to win the NFC, especially if they can secure some home playoff games at Lambeau. I'm taking the Packers to win the NFC at 30/1 on DraftKings. I have several bullish Packers bets in my pocket heading into the season, but this is my favorite one still on the board. And if Love is terrible, it's a small price to pay. Good luck!