Fantasy Football Debate: Nick Chubb vs. Josh Jacobs

Which running back should you target between Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs in fantasy now that Jacobs' holdout is apparently over? In this debate, Justin Edwards argues for Nick Chubb while Nic Bodiford capes up for Josh Jacobs.

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The Case for Nick Chubb

Justin: As one of the best “pure” runners in the sport, Nick Chubb is going to benefit in spades, with former teammate Kareem Hunt out of the picture. Hunt accrued much of his fantasy running back points in the passing game, including the 166 targets he earned in his four seasons with Cleveland. But, much like other aging veteran backs who remained unsigned late into the offseason, his effectiveness in the running game has diminished as he gets closer to the dreaded RB age cliff. His 2022 career-low 3.8 yards per attempt exemplified that.

With Hunt moving on, the Cleveland Browns have a good bit of vacated RB touches to fill in (33.1% from 2022, to be exact), and there’s no reason to assume Chubb won’t account for a large piece of that pie. Even with Hunt in town, Chubb finished the 2021 and 2022 seasons as the RB10 and RB6, respectively, in half-PPR points per game in offensive landscapes that left plenty to be desired. According to 4for4’s Team Stat Explorer, the Browns didn’t finish higher than 22nd in explosive pass%, 22nd in passing yards per game, or 18th in pass EPA per play over the last two seasons. Regardless, Chubb consistently delivered fantasy production with a mostly-inefficient passing offense.

This is because Chubb is one of the most efficient runners in the game, finishing in the top six of both yards after contact per attempt and broken tackles per attempt in both of those years. Since 2019, Chubb has seen 20.1 touches without Hunt in the lineup, and that has led to a bump in fantasy scoring (15.0 vs. 16.7). That 16.7 benchmark alone would have been good enough for an RB5 finish last year.

There’s a very good chance the offense as a whole will improve around Nick Chubb in the 2023 season now that we are a full year removed from the circus that was the situation surrounding Deshaun Watson. The improvement would include a full (normal) offseason with Watson and his teammates, the additions of Elijah Moore and rookie Cedric Tillman, and a top-10 offensive line.

On the other side of the country is a team that, on paper, is pretty clearly heading in the other direction. After losing both Derek Carr and Darren Waller this offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders responded by adding a quarterback who may not be ready to play in Week 1, with a clause baked into his deal that he can be waived for basically no cost to the team, and free agent wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. With a possibility that we will be seeing Brian Hoyer and/or fourth-round rookie Aidan O’Connell taking snaps under center for some period of time this season, the offensive environment surrounding Josh Jacobs could very well be in flux this season.

The Case for Josh Jacobs

Nic: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is available at a steep average draft position (ADP) discount thanks to a futile contract-related standoff that is coming to a merciful end, per 4for4’s 12-team Multi-Site ADP tool. Jacobs soared to career-highs in nearly every major counting statistic in 2022, yet the front office remains reticent to offer the 25-year-old a long-term contract, instead opting for the franchise tag. The front office knows that the collective bargaining agreement effectively prevents Jacobs from holding out into the regular season, allowing for a strong-armed negotiation approach. Although this imperfect situation carries risk, it is highly likely Jacobs will take the field for Las Vegas in 2023 and smash his late-second-round ADP (2.12, RB9) in the process. Fantasy managers could consider the ever-steady Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb at a far higher 1.10, RB4 ADP, but Jacobs is the smarter value play.

Cleveland allowed passing-down specialist Kareem Hunt to leave in free agency this year, promoting second-year player Jerome Ford to the role. Although Ford, currently nursing a hamstring strain, is likely a lesser player than Hunt, Chubb’s critical scoring-position role is threatened by mobile quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Chubb finished as the half-PPR RB6 and RB10, respectively per 4for4's Fantasy Points Browser, over the last two seasons, bagging top-five and top-eight rushing touchdown sums in the process. The impressive feats were accomplished via a top-five team rushing share inside the opponent’s 5-yard line in 2022 and a top-12 team green zone rushing share in 2021, per 4for4's NFL Player Stats Explorer.

After Watson took the helm from Jacoby Brissett in Week 13, though, Chubb’s rushing attempts per game, red zone rushing attempt share, green zone rushing attempt share, and inside-the-5-yard-line share took serious hits. Chubb’s green zone rushing share most notably dropped by 8.1% and although the inside-the-5 sample size was small (two total rushing attempts), Watson did steal one of them, along with a 16.7% green zone rushing share.

Conversely, Jacobs’ new starting quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, had a 12.1% green zone rushing share in 11 games played for the San Francisco 49ers last year, while averaging 1.6 total rushing attempts per game, distantly trailing Watson’s 4.5. Jacobs’ primary backup Zamir White also failed to earn a single green zone rushing attempt last year, helping Jacobs hog more than 85.0% of the backfield’s green zone and inside-the-five rushing attempts last year. Both rates ranked in the top three among qualifying running backs.

Las Vegas’ refusal to invest in Jacobs long-term at 25 years old is no coincidence. While Jacobs’ consecutive 50+ reception seasons (53 and 54, respectively) hit the bare minimum requirements for DPT Adam Hutchison’s All-Purpose+ categorization, 2024 will be Jacobs’ age-26 season. Hutchison’s research indicates that All-Purpose+ running backs experience a significant production drop-off around age 27.5, while standard All-Purpose running backs begin their descent at 26.5. Jacobs is in the clear for 2022 and should play well on a high-touch volume, however, a multi-year deal is understandably undesirable for general manager Dave Ziegler, with Jacobs bearing a fringe All-Purpose-to-All-Purpose+ profile. Expect the team to deploy Jacobs at a near-league-high rate this year, as they did in his prolific 2022 campaign.

NFL Running Back Rushing (min. 100 attempts)

NFL Running Back Receiving (min. 35 targets)

Jacobs should start Week 1 start and see a massive workload, as any wear and tear accrued is Jacobs’ cross to bear during his post-Las Vegas life. The capable dual-threat player should remain highly efficient as Las Vegas’ No. 1 offensive weapon in 2023 and comes at a significant discount to the scoring-position-challenged Chubb.