Week 1 Monday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Sep 11, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Bills at Jets

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Showdown breakdown for an exciting Monday Night Football clash between the Bills and Jets. These squads both see themselves as AFC powerhouses, each with their own aspirations of Super Bowl glory and are set to face off in what promises to be an epic start to the year for both sides. With the game total pegged at 45.5 points, it might seem modest, but don't be deceived. This matchup could be a showcase of offensive prowess, and for DFS gamers, it's a captivating single-game slate, with tons of angles to take to try and gain leverage on the field.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20& and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Bills (-2.5, 24.00) @ Jets (+2.5, 21.50); Over/Under 45.5

Despite having a reputation as a high-flying, uptempo offense. Buffalo actually played at a surprisingly moderate pace a season ago. But whatever the Bills lack in tempo, they more than makeup for in both pass rate and, while not visualized above, in deep passes. Quarterback Josh Allen led the league in total air yards a season ago, en route to the seventh-highest passing yards in the NFL. The team’s slightly deflated passing numbers overall a season ago (15th in the NFL in pass plays per game) are mostly a product of game script. When a capable offense (like, say, one led by Aaron Rodgers) pushes the Bills, they are more than happy to oblige their opponent with increased passing and pace.

The Jets’ place on this chart cannot be trusted whatsoever. When you have a quarterback upgrade as significant as they’ve had this offseason, we should simply assume this squad in the dead center of the chart above until we have more information. It should be noted that the Rodgers-led Packers actually found themselves in the lower-left quadrant of the graph, indicating they were below average in both pace of play and pass rate in neutral game scripts. This author’s hunch is that the Jets aren’t nearly as interested as being a run-oriented offense as Green Bay was in 2022 (and appears to be again in 2023).

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