FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 4 GPP Breakdown

Sep 30, 2023

Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

In this space each week will be the top stacks, contrarian plays, and strategies to attack GPPs on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The backbone of our player pool is value, as highlighted by 4for4’s proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. To be successful in GPPs, however, it’s essential to be unique and that can be accomplished by combining knowledge from 4for4’s suite of DFS tools including ownership projections, leverage scores, correlation, and stack values.

Even with all of these resources at our disposal, adjusting for game type is essential. For example, someone playing the Millionaire Maker shouldn’t have the same approach as someone entering a $300 single-entry contest with 150 entries. For nuanced explanations on game selection and lineup construction, be sure to check out 4for4’s DFS Strategy Hub and DFS MVP game theory segments.

Note: Many of 4for4’s value plays should be in your GPP player pool but may not necessarily be written about below. Most starters on teams with high implied totals are worthy of being rostered but players in this breakdown are those to be overweight on.

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More Week 4 DFS Strategy: Top Values and Cash Plays | WR/CB Matchups | Ownership Projections | Leverage Scores

Week 4 Overview

Good luck parsing between the receivers with 30-point ceilings this week. With so many to choose from, the elite quarterbacks who appear more favorable on paper should be regarded as players who make our lineups structurally worse.

Popular Games to Target

Dolphins @ Bills (-3); O/U 54

Buckle up. The highest rostered game across the board warrants it.

Generating the league’s fourth-highest pressure rate and tied with Dallas for accumulating a league-high sack rate to date, Buffalo’s defense appears menacing on paper. Peek under the hood and you’ll find the three quarterbacks they’ve faced notoriously rank first (Zach Wilson), 11th (Jimmy Garoppolo), and 13th (Sam Howell) in holding onto the ball before release. On the other hand, Tua Tagovailoa ($8,000 FanDuel/$7,400 DraftKings) is averaging the quickest time from snap to throw and remains one of only six quarterbacks stacking 9.0+ Air Yards Per Attempt.