O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 7

Oct 18, 2023

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its impact on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
3	KC	LAC	32	29
6	MIA	PHI	29	23
2	PHI	MIA	24	22
7	CLE	IND	28	21
9	GB	DEN	30	21
16	SEA	ARI	31	15
10	BAL	DET	19	9
20	LVR	CHI	27	7
14	SF	MIN	18	4
1	DET	BAL	2	1
15	TB	ATL	16	1
26	ARI	SEA	26	0
21	CAR	BYE	21	0
17	CIN	BYE	17	0
4	DAL	BYE	4	0
23	HOU	BYE	23	0
27	NYJ	BYE	27	0
31	TEN	BYE	31	0
5	LAC	KC	3	-2
8	IND	CLE	5	-3
18	JAX	NO	14	-4
24	LAR	PIT	20	-4
11	ATL	TB	6	-5
13	BUF	NE	7	-6
19	DEN	GB	13	-6
32	NYG	WAS	25	-7
28	PIT	LAR	21	-7
12	MIN	SF	4	-8
25	CHI	LVR	11	-14
29	NO	JAX	15	-14
30	WAS	NYG	12	-18
22	NE	BUF	1	-21

Packers @ Broncos

The Packers are next up to take a run at the league’s most susceptible defense as they head to Denver on Sunday afternoon in a game that should be filled with fantasy points. The Broncos are currently dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing offenses, including 30th against the quarterback position, thanks in large part to a pass rush that has forced pressure on 30.2% of dropbacks (30th). Conversely, the Packers rank second in pressure rate allowed (26.5%).

The Green Bay offense has struggled since left tackle David Bakhtiari once again succumbed to a position on the injured reserve, but coming out of a bye week will hopefully help them put the pieces back together and persevere with an otherwise strong offensive line. Jordan Love and company will look to get back on track if the O-line can keep him out of muddy pockets, as the Denver defense has allowed an 80.7% completion rate, 9.1 yards per attempt, and a 123.6 QB rating when the quarterback isn’t pressured. Each of those marks is league-worst.

Both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are solid WR2/3 options, and Love is a great streaming option if he’s still available on your waiver wire. Tight end Luke Musgrave is also in consideration, as Tyler Conklin (4-67 on five targets), Cole Kmet (7-85-2 on nine targets), and the Washington Commanders tight end room (7-89-1 on ten targets) have all had varying degrees of success in three of the last four Broncos games, with the fourth game in that span being the Week 3 Miami Dolphins explosion when they scored 70 points.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

One of the only teams less adept at getting after the quarterback (25.0% pressure rate - 32nd) than the Denver Broncos has been the Arizona Cardinals. Though they have a respectable 18 sacks on the season (t-9th), they’ve got an unsustainable 27.7% pressure-to-sack rate, easily the highest in the league and far more than the 16.2% league average.

Those of you who watched the Seahawks/Bengals matchup from Week 6 will likely wonder why the Seattle offensive line would be touted as a positive for the team after allowing five sacks and constant pressure to the Cincinnati pass rush. Still, we must remember that the team had been dealing with several injuries, and it was only the second game of the season for sophomore left tackle Charles Cross. The Seahawks still garner league-average numbers across most offensive line metrics, including adjusted sack rate (7.38% - 17th) and adjusted line yards (4.32 - 10th).

The Seahawks' offensive line unit should look more like an above-replacement-level group in this matchup, which opens the door for Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett to vy for a top-12 finish at their respective positions.

Ravens vs. Lions

The Baltimore Ravens welcomed veteran all-world tackle Ronnie Stanley back in Week 5 to disappointing results, as the left tackle allowed nine pressures and a sack to the Steelers' pass rush in a 17-10 loss. However, things got cleaned up in his second game back, as the unit as a whole would only allow 11 pressures in Tennessee, as Lamar Jackson completed 70% of his passes and gobbled up 62 yards on the ground in the process.

The game marked only the second time this season (Week 1) in which the unit was fully healthy, and they’ll look to ride that injury luck into Week 7, as they face a Lions team that ranks first in RB aFPA but 19th, 23rd, and 26th in QB aFPA, WR aFPA, and TE aFPA, respectively. Detroit has been particularly susceptible to receivers running out of the slot, where offenses have averaged 148.0 yards per game against them, the third-highest mark in the NFL. This opens the door for not only Mark Andrews but also Nelson Agholor, who has surprisingly become that team’s No. 2 wideout, with Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham struggling to get up to speed.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Giants vs. Commanders

Watching the New York Giants defense—or the team in general—has been an unpleasant affair to this point in the season, but for fantasy purposes, they have about the best matchup we could ask for in Week 7. We have consistently nailed high-floor, high-ceiling outcomes by attacking the Commanders' offensive line through their propensity to allow pressure and Sam Howell’s predisposition to turn those into sacks.

Washington has allowed the eighth-most pressures on the season and has the league’s worst adjusted sack rate (14.04%), no thanks to Sam Howell leading the league in pressure-to-sack rate (33.7%). With left tackle Charles Leno back in the lineup in Week 7, there’s a chance that the Commanders can bounce back, but the Giants' D/ST is in a good spot-start position, regardless.

Raiders @ Bears

Though Justin Fields undoubtedly adds pressure to his own offensive line—his 3.23 average time to throw ranks dead last after earning that finish in 2022—it’s hard to imagine that UDFA Tyson Bagent will ease the load for his offensive line. Bagent finished Week 6 with 15 dropbacks after Fields left with a thumb injury, absorbing five pressures, one sack, and an interception, with two turnover-worthy passes (12.5%).

Here’s what Kyle Crabbs of The Draft Network had to say about Bagent in his NFL Draft Scouting Report:

“Expectations for Bagent early in his NFL career should be low. He’s facing a significant jump in the level of competition and he is unlikely to be ready for live NFL action early in his pro career. But given the time to marinate and develop, there’s going to be an opportunity for an NFL team to secure a quality quarterback.”

Playing behind a line that ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate (12.7%) and 31st in pressure rate allowed (43.1%), we should be trying to get the Raiders defense in any lineups we can for Week 7.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	PHI	MIA	26	24
9	GB	DEN	32	23
1	DET	BAL	20	19
7	CLE	IND	25	18
3	KC	LAC	16	13
16	SEA	ARI	29	13
20	LVR	CHI	31	11
19	DEN	GB	28	9
25	CHI	LVR	27	2
12	MIN	SF	13	1
21	CAR	BYE	21	0
17	CIN	BYE	17	0
4	DAL	BYE	4	0
23	HOU	BYE	23	0
6	MIA	PHI	6	0
27	NYJ	BYE	27	0
14	SF	MIN	14	0
31	TEN	BYE	31	0
5	LAC	KC	4	-1
24	LAR	PIT	23	-1
11	ATL	TB	8	-3
13	BUF	NE	10	-3
8	IND	CLE	5	-3
22	NE	BUF	18	-4
26	ARI	SEA	21	-5
18	JAX	NO	11	-7
15	TB	ATL	7	-8
10	BAL	DET	1	-9
32	NYG	WAS	15	-17
30	WAS	NYG	12	-18
29	NO	JAX	3	-26
28	PIT	LAR	2	-26

Browns @ Colts

The Browns' defense has been incredible this season and should make life difficult for Gardner Minshew this weekend, as evidenced by their 2-point spread, despite rolling out P.J. Walker again. This opens the door for the team to lean heavily on the run behind an offensive line that ranks 10th in running back yards before contact (1.69/att.). This should bode well against a Colts defense that ranks 23rd in defensive adjusted line yards (3.89) and will be without DT Grover Stewart, who will be serving his first game of a six-game suspension due to PEDs.

Jerome Ford should be boosted into the fringe RB1 realm with so many other options (Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon) on bye, but what are we doing with Kareem Hunt? After earning 13 opportunities in his first two games back with his old team, Hunt handled 15 opportunities (12 rushes, three targets) in what would become a 19-17 underdog victory over the San Francisco 49ers. This was only slightly less than Ford’s 19 opportunities (17 rushes, two targets) in a competitive game. In fact, 11 of Hunt’s 15 opportunities came in the second half.

Hunt continues to be a woefully inefficient runner (3.3 yards per attempt in ‘23), which heavily impacts his ceiling, but desperate managers should consider the veteran in FLEX positions and deeper leagues.

Vikings vs. 49ers

The 49ers' defense has kept the heat on quarterbacks in the 2023 season, as they currently rank 13th in pressure rate and have allowed the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the position. They’ve been a little less imposing when teams keep it on the ground, though, as their defense ranks 19th in adjusted line yards (4.10) and 22nd in defensive DVOA in the running game.

This pairs nicely with where the Vikings can win in a post-Justin Jefferson world, as their offensive line ranks ninth in running back yards before contact (1.77/attempt) and second in adjusted line yards (4.81). While Cam Akers’ usage looked to be trending up in his second game as a Viking (21 snaps, seven opportunities in Week 5), that hype train came to a screeching halt in Week 6 (nine snaps, two opportunities), as the reins were handed back over to Alexander Mattison.

Mattison isn’t an exciting Week 7 option, but he should provide plenty of floor to be considered an RB2 in what could end up being a difficult week for running backs.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: