O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 9

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA—one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Cowboys @ Eagles

The Cowboys are in another great spot offensively, and luckily, for fantasy managers who have pieces of them, there are more to come. The Dallas offensive line almost went into Week 8 completely healthy, but left tackle Tyron Smith ended up being a late scratch after suffering a neck stinger in the week prior. It didn’t matter much, as they blew out the Rams 43-20, with Dak Prescott throwing 300+ yards and four touchdowns, with CeeDee Lamb (12-158-1) and Jake Ferguson (4-47-1) reaping much of the benefits.

The situation doesn’t look much different this week. While the Eagles certainly have the pass-rush firepower (Josh Sweat, Jalen Carter, Haason Reddick, etc.) to get after the quarterback, their coverage team trails in talent. Philadelphia has allowed the third most yards per game (212.4), second-most passing touchdowns (13), and the second-highest passer rating (108.1) from a clean pocket, continually getting sliced up when they’re not able to force pressure. This bodes well for Prescott, as his offensive line has allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate (29.8%) on the year.

The Cowboys offensive line—stop me if you’ve heard this before—should be fully healthy ahead of this matchup, barring any last-second scratches, particularly to Tyron Smith. Outside of the obvious names for fantasy, Michael Gallup and/or Brandin Cooks can be in consideration as FLEX options in what should be an exciting intradivision shootout.

Ravens vs. Seahawks

Lamar Jackson and the passing offense had a rough go of it last week, but the fantasy numbers certainly would have looked better if Gus Edwards hadn’t scored three touchdowns at the goal line. The box score doesn’t look appetizing in terms of pressure (12) and sack (4) counts, but six and three respective pressures and sacks were attributed to Jackson himself, which will occasionally happen with a play-making quarterback of his ilk.

This week, they will take on a Seahawks defense that leads the league in sacks per game (3.7) but is middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate (8.3% - 14th), and ranks 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. With Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum, and the rest of the line enjoying a stretch of good health, the passing attack is on track to have a bounce-back game, and they currently hold the second-highest implied team total (24.5) on Sunday’s main slate of action.

Beyond Jackson and Mark Andrews, fantasy managers should feel comfortable going back to Zay Flowers after his ghastly 5-19-0 Week 8 performance, as he still ranks 12th among all WR/TEs with his 26.3% target share. The Seahawks have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (134.7), even after facing off against P.J. Walker and Joshua Dobbs over these last two weeks.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins

Just a few short weeks ago, NFL fans had this matchup circled in sharpee as a game-of-the-year candidate, but some of that excitement has worn off after the Chiefs offense sputtered, not once but twice, against a woebegone Broncos defense. The Dolphins themselves hit a roadblock during that span of games, failing to top 250 yards on offense against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7.

Despite these recent hiccups, this still sets up for a Sunday morning full of fireworks, as two of the most exciting offenses in the league will take their services to Frankfurt, Germany, with Week 9’s highest total of the week (50.5).

From an offensive line perspective, the Chiefs will be tested by a Dolphins team currently registering a second-best 41.4% pressure rate. Still, they should be up to the challenge, particularly in the interior. According to ESPN’s pass block win rate metric, Joe Thuney (first), Creed Humphrey (second), and Trey Smith (14th) all rank within the top 15 along the interior, while Jawaan Taylor (seventh) and Donovan Smith (17th) are holding their own at tackle as well.

The continued ascension of Rashee Rice should come into play here, even after the team traded for Mecole Hardman, who has run a total of 22 routes—10 from the slot—in his first two games back with the team. Even with Justin Watson returning from an elbow injury, Rice logged his typical 60% route participation in Week 8, turning five targets into 56 scoreless yards. He should build on that in what is sure to be a back-and-forth affair.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Raiders vs. Giants

It looks as though the Giants will be welcoming back Daniel Jones for Week 9, but that’s not necessarily great news for their offense, and it’s certainly not bad news for opposing fantasy defenses. Over Jones’ 198 dropbacks this year, he holds the league’s worth pressure-to-sack rate (31.5%), far beyond the 19.3% league average.

Though the Giants' offensive line looked better in Week 8 without replacements rotating in for injury purposes, they still rank at or near league-worst in almost every metric. Those include adjusted sack rate (13.5% - 32nd), pressure rate allowed (45.5% - 32nd), blown block percentage (3.82% - 31st), adjusted line yards (3.26 - t-32nd), and running back yards before contact (1.25 - 28th). The Raiders D/ST should be prioritized wherever possible.

Browns vs. Cardinals

The Browns weren’t able to overcome a questionable performance from quarterback P.J. Walker (248-1-2, 48.4%) last week, but that doesn’t mean their defense wasn’t terrorizing Geno Smith all day long. Accruing 26 pressures in Week 8, Cleveland now ranks fourth in pressure rate (40.5%) and third in adjusted sack rate (9.6%) heading into this matchup against a Cardinals team that has a lowly 15-point implied team total in Clayton Tune’s first (and presumably only) start of the 2023 season.

Last week was the first of the year in which the Browns didn’t have a multi-sack game. Expect them to start a new streak on Sunday.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Colts @ Panthers

The Panthers put together a surprise performance against the Houston Texans last week, holding them to 250 total yards of offense while stifling C.J. Stroud and the ascending passing game. Though the run game was only marginally better (30 attempts, 110 yards), it was the seventh time in as many games that the opposing offense topped 100 yards on the ground, as the Panthers run defense remains 32nd in adjusted line yards (5.08).

This streak of 100-yard games is sure to continue against a Colts offensive line that ranks 11th in running back yards before contact (1.89/att.), it’s just a matter of pegging where the majority of the work will come from. Though Zack Moss has proven that he should get his fair share of the workload, the writing is on the wall for Jonathan Taylor to continue taking a larger piece of the pie. Since returning back in Week 5, his snap share has gone on a steady ascension (16.4%, 42.7%, 49.3%, 61.2%), while his share of the rush attempts has followed the same trajectory (17.6%, 47.1%, 45%, 50%).

This could be the first week Taylor forces this into a 60/40 split, and with a great matchup on deck, he should be considered a top-ten back once again.

Chargers @ Jets

After an absolute slog of a game in Week 8 against the Giants, the New York Jets will welcome a much more explosive offense in Week 9. Things could be rough for Justin Herbert and the passing game, but this lines up well for Austin Ekeler behind the league’s eighth-ranked offensive line in terms of adjusted line yards (4.40).

The Jets have been a run-funnel defense, both in terms of fantasy production and real-life football. While they rank first in aFPA to the quarterback and wide receiver positions, they rank 25th against running backs. That is mirrored in DVOA, where they rank sixth against the pass but 18th against the run. Ekeler hasn’t gotten things going on the ground since coming off of the injury report, but he does have 6+ targets in two of those three games. He should return to form in a good Week 9 matchup.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Emari Demercado, Cardinals
• Brian Robinson/Antonio Gibson, Commanders
• Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, Steelers
• Dameon Pierce/Devin Singletary, Texans