Week 10 Europe Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 11, 2023

Sunday Morning Single-Game DFS: Colts vs Patriots

Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for the Week 10 European Game. For this final overseas game of 2023, the Colts square off against the New England Patriots in a battle of struggling AFC squads. The Colts, holding a 4-5 record, are technically just two games shy of a wild card spot but face falling well behind the pack with an upset loss. They face a Patriots sitting at 2-7, the worst in the AFC. With both teams looking to right the ship before it’s too late, there are tons of angles to explore for DFS players, let’s dig into the strategy for this single-game slate.

For up-to-the-minute updates leading up to kickoff, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscriber-only Discord channel.

Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Colts (-2, 22.5) vs. Patriots (+2, 20.5); Over/Under 42.5 (Neutral Location)

The Indianapolis Colts enter this game favored by 2.5 points and with an implied total of 22.5, which is fairly strong for their standard. This season has been a rollercoaster for the Colts, with their offense showing a peculiar mix of tempo and strategic choices, especially after the midseason change in quarterback. Despite the absence of Anthony Richardson, the Colts have maintained a run-focused approach, evident in their below-average pass rate during neutral game scripts. This conservative ground game is juxtaposed with their tendency to play uptempo, especially when trailing, leading them to the second-highest overall pace of play in the league.

The Colts also rank 13th in team pass plays per game, but their deep passing and red zone passing rates are both outside the top 15, as they shift the focus back to their backs. The injury to wide receiver Josh Downs further complicates their aerial attack, and while he's active today, it's hard to see Josh Downs commanding his typical 20% of the team’s WOPR share— in their receiving corps. The Patriots' defense, while very strong against the run (top-5 in yards allowed per carry and rush defense DVOA), struggles much more against the pass, ranking 23rd in pass defense DVOA.

The Patriots carry an implied total of 20.5 and have actually been aggressive and uptempo in neutral game scripts, but sustaining drives has been the consistent issue. Ranking ninth in pass plays per game, the Patriots often find themselves playing from behind, as indicated by their 31st-ranked game script score, which measures the offense’s average score differential on a season-long basis. Mac Jones throws deep more often than league average (3.7 deep attempts per game) but is hampered by extremely poor accuracy, ranking outside the top 30 quarterbacks in PlayerProfilers’ accuracy rating. The Colts defense, while mediocre in aFPA, could present opportunities for the Patriots, especially considering the Colts' bottom-10 ranking in rush defense DVOA.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

Gardner Minshew has filled in admirably for Anthony Richardson, albeit while employing his typical high-risk, high-reward style of play. He ranks outside the top 40 quarterbacks in completion percentage vs. expectation, but well above average in true drive success rate and in EPA per game. Minshew has the ninth-highest QBR, and the 11th-best accuracy rating according to PlayerProfiler. He also has thrown the third-most passes charted as interceptable, and the second-most passes charted as dangerous, and he’s only started six full games. Minshew doesn’t rush a ton, but when he does it’s near the goalline, as two of his 15 total rushes have found the end zone. He averages less than six rushing yards per game, however. Minshew’s 12.1 fantasy points per game are just inside the top 30 quarterbacks.

Mac Jones has been anything but reliable for the Patriots this season, ranking 22nd in QBR and 30th in true passer rating. He ranks ninth in total pass attempts, and second in passes charted as interceptable. Jones has two weeks inside the top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring, but six games outside the top 20 (and two outside the top 30). Jones ranks 25th in expected fantasy points per game.