Week 10 Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Nov 13, 2023

Monday Night Single-Game DFS: Broncos at Bills

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Showdown Breakdown for Week 10 Monday Night Football, where the Denver Broncos visit the Buffalo Bills in a game rich with AFC playoff implications. As the Bills vie to secure a foothold in the fiercely competitive AFC East, the Broncos aim to build on their recent successes and disrupt the playoff picture much more than we thought just three weeks ago. With both teams boasting relatively healthy offenses and a plethora of talent, this matchup presents a complex puzzle for showdown enthusiasts, let’s dig into the strategy for this primetime slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Broncos (+7, 20.25) @ Bills (-7, 27.25); Over/Under 47.5

The Bills enter this matchup with an imposing implied total of 27.25 points, signaling a strong offensive expectation. Favored by 7 points at home, they appear positioned for a potentially dominant performance. The Bills' offensive strategy is marked by above-average passing in neutral game scripts, with quarterback Josh Allen leading an uptempo and efficient offense for much of 2023. Allen averages 4.4 deep passes per game and 5.4 red zone attempts, placing him among the top five quarterbacks in both categories. Despite their eighth overall ranking in pass plays per game, the Bills have the sixth-slowest pace of play when you expand to all game scripts. With an average score differential of +2.3, eighth best in the NFL, the Bills have shown that they’re comfortable downshifting to a slower pace, but only when they’re playing with the lead.

Contrasting the Bills, the Broncos exhibit a more conservative offensive strategy in neutral scripts, averaging 29.1 attempts per game, 29th in the NFL. Russell Wilson, although less frequent in his passing attempts, surprisingly mirrors Allen in high-leverage situations, with 4.1 deep passes and 5.1 red zone pass attempts per game. This indicates a strategic choice to utilize Wilson's arm in crucial moments, despite appearing to be run-heavy when looking at total air yards and pass attempts. The Broncos’ average score differential, although recently improved, remains at -3.9, bottom-5 in the NFL, reflecting challenges in their early-season games. Their recent approach, however, suggests a new readiness to use Wilson in a more “vintage Wilson” style, which could be pivotal in a game against a formidable opponent like Buffalo.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Josh Allen has been dominating in pure passing metrics, leading the NFL in completion percentage vs. expectation and in EPA per game. His rushing ability further bolsters his fantasy expectations, as he averages 4.9 carries per game, ninth among quarterbacks, with a third of his carries coming inside the red zone. With 18 passing touchdowns (second highest in the NFL) and six additional scores on the ground, Allen’s multifaceted skill set makes him a nightmare to prepare for. Denver’s defense—ranked 26th overall in adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks—showed signs of resilience against Patrick Mahomes in Week 9, suggesting more of a potential challenge for Allen than season-long numbers imply.

On the Denver side, Russell Wilson’s improved play has been a key catalyst in the team's midseason turnaround. He’s now above league average in completion percentage versus expectation, true drive success rate, and EPA per game. Wilson's 16 passing touchdowns are top 10 in the NFL, as is his 6.9% touchdown rate per pass attempt. He currently leads the NFL in PlayerProfiler’s production premium metric, which evaluates performance in similar on-field situations. He’s entered the top five in red zone completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure. Benefiting from a receiving corps that averages 2.3 yards of separation at the target, the third-most in the NFL, Wilson is suddenly well-positioned to exploit the undermanned Bills’ secondary. Buffalo's defense ranks slightly above average in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.