Thanksgiving Day Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays for Commanders at Cowboys

Nov 22, 2023

Thanksgiving Day Single-Game DFS: Commanders at Cowboys

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Thanksgiving football, Game 2, featuring a classic NFC Turkey Day clash between Washington and Dallas. The Cowboys are rolling, and after two resounding wins over lesser opponents, look to make it three in a row in a game they’re favored by two scores. Meanwhile, the Commanders are identity-less and direction-less and are biding time until the offseason after an embarrassing loss to the Tommy DeVito-led Giants. Let’s examine this one-game slate strategy and see if there’s any hope for competitive football.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Commanders (+11, 18.75) @ Cowboys (+1.5, 29.75); Over/Under 48.5

The Cowboys are fairly neutral in their offensive approach, playing slightly ahead of league average in terms of pace, and just slightly above average in terms of pass rate in neutral game scripts. The Cowboys have turned up the dial on their aggressiveness in the red zone to fantastic effect, as Dak Prescott ranks top five in the NFL in red zone attempts per game and it’s led to a top-five ranking in total passing touchdowns. The Cowboys rank just above average at 35.2 pass plays per game, and top-5 in the NFL with an average score differential north of +6.5 this season.

The Commanders are average in pace of play, but employ a dropback-happy approach with Sam Howell under center, especially as the team has proven that they’re perfectly content to let Howell scramble if he can’t find anything downfield. They rank well above average in pass rate during neutral game scripts, but their bottom-third average score differential indicates they don’t spend a lot of time in those neutral game scripts, and like Week 11, are playing from behind. This has led Howell to average 39.7 pass plays per game, the highest rate of any team in the NFL. Howell is neck and neck with Prescott in total passing touchdowns this season, trailing 19 to 18. He’s also needed 104 more passes to do so.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

With the Cowboys surging up the NFC standings, winning five of their last seven games (and with their only losses against Philadelphia and San Francisco), Prescott has emerged as an MVP candidate and currently ranks top three in the NFL in per-drive and per-game efficiency based on the charts above. He’s fourth in AYA, sixth in QBR, and second in PlayerProfiler’s Accuracy Rating. He’s done this despite dealing with 1.7 drops per game, fifth most in the NFL. He has a chance to annihilate a Washington defense that ranks dead last in aFPA and has allowed the most touchdowns from outside the red zone of any team this season.

Howell’s metrics are respectable for a first-year starter, especially one drafted outside of the first round of the NFL draft. He’s above NFL average in completion percentage vs expectation and just below average in per-drive and per-game efficiency. There are some things to like in Howell’s advanced metrics as well, as he ranks seventh best in PFF’s ratio of Big Time Throws to Turnover Worthy Plays. Yet he’s still thrown the most interceptions in the league, and now faces the league’s 10th-best defense in aFPA to quarterbacks and fifth-best defense in Pass DVOA.