Thanksgiving NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Nov 22, 2023

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Happy Thanksgiving! To everyone reading this column, we appreciate your support of 4for4! I truly believe we have collectively cultivated one of the sharpest communities in the sports betting space, and it’s incredible to be a part of that. Make sure to spend time with your friends and family, but I know football is going to be on regardless, so you may as well place a couple of bets. I’ll save my Week 10 recap for my regular column this week because I have way too much to say there.

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Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bets

There are multiple different ways to exploit Thanksgiving NFL player props this year, here are two for the early game. I'll likely release more in our subscriber discord.

Jahmyr Gibbs over 45.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet 365)

This is widely available at DK, FD, Caesars etc. Ever since the Detroit Lions came out of their Week 9 bye, Gibbs and Montgomery are in a much more even split. Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery each of the past two weeks while getting 42% of the rushing attempts. Montgomery is still getting more work than him (48% rushing attempts), but this is a SIGNIFICANTLY closer split than what we saw earlier in the season. In the first three games they played together, Montgomery had 66% of the rushing attempts, while Gibbs had slightly over 20%. With both in and out of the lineup the rest of the season, the latest sample is all we have to go on. As I laid out, the gap in workload has become much closer.

Now we get an above-average matchup against the Green Bay Packers. They are 23rd in early down success rate allowed and 29th in explosive run rate (rate of 10+ yard runs). The last time these two teams played, the Lions ran the ball 43 total times!

Obviously, some of that was game-script-fueled, but they also still made an effort to run the ball early and often based on their pass rate over expectation being so low. With a closer split in carries and a great matchup as home favorites, I like Gibbs to clear 45 rushing yards pretty easily.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

A.J. Dillon under 47.5 rushing yards (-110 Bet 365)

This is widely available at FD, Caesars, DK, etc. Aaron Jones is almost certainly out, but I still like this under on Dillon. He has been one of the least efficient running backs in the league, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and grading terribly in most advanced metrics. So far, he has started three games without Aaron Jones this year. Against the Saints, he ran for 33 yards on 11 carries. He had more than 47.5 against ATL and LVR, but that came in two close games against subpar run defenses.

He now draws the Lions, who have allowed just three running backs to clear 47.5 rushing yards all season. They are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs as well. The Lions enter this game as 7.5-point home favorites, creating potential game script concerns for Dillon if the game gets out of hand. The last time these teams met, he finished with 11 yards on five carries. Like in that game, the Packers have completely abandoned the run at times if they need to catch up.

On top of all of this, Dillon is reportedly dealing with a groin injury himself. There's a chance one of their backups sees more run than usual if Dillon isn't 100%.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Curtis Samuel under 29.5 receiving yards (-114 FD, playable to 26.5 everywhere else)

Curtis Samuel has had a tumultuous last few weeks. He was ejected last week but ran a route on just 42% of dropbacks prior to his ejection. The week prior he only ran a route on 53% of dropbacks. He suffered an injury in Week 8 and only played 20% of the snaps in that game. Week 7 was when he started to see a decrease in playing time as Samuel ran a route on a season-low (at the time) 53% of dropbacks. So this isn't just a 1-2 week trend, Samuel is seeing significantly less playing time than he did early in the season (71% route rate in Weeks 1-6). Week 6 was also the last time Curtis Samuel cleared 25 receiving yards in a game.

On top of diminishing usage, his average depth of target (ADOT) is only 6.4 and his average yards per reception is 9. So there is significantly less risk of one deep ball sinking us here. Now they face the Cowboys' suffocating defense that figures to give the Commanders' passing offense a tough time.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

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