Week 13 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Nov 30, 2023

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Week 12 Recap: We had a solid Thanksgiving of props, going 5-2 between Ryan Noonan and I. I personally went 3-1 and was feeling good about our prospects heading into the weekend. We picked up a ton of new subscribers during our big black Friday sale, and I was honestly excited to try and secure more lifelong subscribers to add to our already sharp and thriving community. The results didn’t quite come through. It wasn’t the worst-case scenario, losing a unit and a half on the week, but honestly, pretty close.

Tyler Allgeier, under 39 rushing yards, was quite the roller coaster. He had two carries for 7 yards in the first half, and Cordarrelle Patterson was seeing carries over him. Allgeier proceeded to rack up 57 yards on 8 carries in the second half as the Falcons ran the ball an insane 41 times with just 21 pass attempts.

Nearly the same thing happened with Chuba Hubbard under 12.5 carries. He had 5 carries in the first half, and despite losing by 14 points for almost the entire second half, the Panthers decided there was no better time to establish the run and got Chuba Hubbard to 14 carries. The Panthers ran the ball more than they threw it in a game that they never led. Good riddance, Frank Reich.

Don’t even get me started on A.T. Perry. We played his over on 22.5 receiving yards, knowing he was going to run a ton of routes without Michael Thomas. Five pass-catchers, including Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, AND Juwan Johnson, all eclipsed 20 yards. The latter three also got injured in this game, and he STILL didn’t get there. To make matters worse, he only saw two targets. Impressively pathetic stuff from a guy running a route on 80% of dropbacks and totaling two targets on 38 pass attempts.

We stacked losses in the early slate but started inching our way back with wins on Justin Herbert, Josh Allen overs and ladders, and a nice Devin Singletary under. Just when I thought we were in the clear, Alexander Mattison’s under came in for the kill. There was a constant drumbeat that Ty Chandler would see more work, and the team was concerned with Mattison’s fumble the week prior. The Bears' run defense has also largely been stellar this season. In the first half, all of that came true. Mattison had just six rushing yards on two carries. The live over/under for his rushing yards at one point during the game was 26 rushing yards. Mattison proceeded to rip off his longest run in the last 2.5 years of 21 yards, and the Vikings continued to feed him. He finished with 51 rushing yards on just 10 carries.

Alright, now that we got that out of the way, I think it’s important to note that just because we have had a disappointing few weeks, doesn’t mean the whole season has been this way. I am still up over 10 units on the season and I have three documented profitable seasons prior to this. I’m not going to say we win every single week, but in the end, we always come out on top. For any new subscribers who have questions, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord, and feel free to ask away. Our tracking sheet is free and pinned in our NFL betting channel and at the bottom of every article. On to Week 13!

Thursday Night Football Bets

Dak Prescott Under 283.5 passing yards (-110 Bet365)

This is widely available at other shops for a similar price. Most people will probably think I am insane for this, considering the heater Dak is on, but hear me out. Dak has been crushing out of the bye, but that's why we are getting a massively inflated line.

He has absolutely shredded three secondaries who all play a top-7 rate of man coverage and are routinely burned deep. He threw for 331 against Washington (Worst secondary in the league, 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed), 404 yards against the Giants (zero talent, blitz a ton, and play a ton of man), 374 against Philly (comeback mode against a secondary that can be exposed deep and also plays a lot of man).

His one dud in between? 189 yards on 38 pass attempts against the Carolina Panthers, who play the second-highest rate of zone defense in the league at 83.9%. You know who ranks 3rd? The Seattle Seahawks. Digging deeper, there are more similarities; the Seahawks are 4th in Cover-3 rate. The Panthers are first.

Dak's man vs zone splits have been well documented previously, as he historically isn't a good anticipatory thrower. This season, he averages 8.83 YPA against men and 7.7 YPA against zone despite completing a higher rate of his passes.

Dak has only gone over 280 passing yards in four games this season (All of them against man-heavy or bad secondaries), while Seattle has allowed one QB to eclipse 250 passing yards since their secondary got healthy in Week 4. That includes holding QBs like Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson well under this number.

On top of this, the Seattle run defense started strong but has gotten wrecked as of late, allowing 5.3 yards per carry in the past five games. There is a chance Dallas doesn't skew pass-heavy like they have been. On the other side, I don't expect Seattle to push Dallas at all, given Geno's struggles under pressure and still being banged up and now on a short week. This was released in the discord at 280 (-115 which was widely available), which will count on my official record, and has since climbed back up after dipping to 275 in some spots. That is basically zero concern for me here and I would play it to 275.

Risk: 1.10 units to win 1 unit