2024 NFL Mock Draft: Connor Allen's 3.0

Apr 14, 2024

Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

We are less than two weeks away from the draft, and groupthink is at an all-time high. Before my final mock drops the night before the draft, I wanted to squeeze one more in!

We added Vegas Refund to our draft betting team this year and he has already released multiple bets in our discord. If you want all of our official NFL Draft bets and join our NFL Draft Betting discord, you can get a subscription for as low as $5 with one of our partners. You can also get VR’s exclusive discount on the regular plan, here.

To be transparent, I value information significantly more than my own player takes and analysis. I watch tape of top prospects to understand how they play and their fit within teams but at the end of the day, I don’t work for an NFL team and am not in each team’s front office. When penciling in picks for mock drafts I try and put myself as a fly on the wall in the Draft Room and imagine what each GM is most likely to do, not what I would do.

2024 NFL Mock Draft

1. Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams (QB, USC)

This has been locked in for a while now as the Bears will draft their new franchise quarterback.

2. Washington Commanders - Drake Maye (QB, UNC)

I have gone back and forth on this pick and am tentatively slotting in Maye. The overconfidence in the betting market based on bigger media members' speculation has been impressive. Adam Schefter did 5 to 6 guest spots this week on podcasts and mentioned that the Commanders are leaning toward Jayden Daniels. He explained further, though, “It’s not like the Commanders told me who they are leaning toward.” All of his sourcing has been other teams telling Adam what they think the Commanders will do.

Schefter is the best of the best in the industry but has been very clear that he does not know the pick and has not even talked to anyone who works with the Commanders about it. I don’t think anyone truly knows at this point, and I am operating as such.

Yahoo's Charles Robinson also added recently that J.J. McCarthy is very much in play at 2. My thoughts are not in line with the betting markets at all right now, which all have Jayden Daniels north of -200 to be the second overall pick, but I would put the odds of 2nd overall at:

3. New England Patriots - Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)

The Patriots have already been relatively vocal about wanting to take a quarterback. New HC Jerod Mayo essentially said they are going to take the best player, at the most important position. Owner Robert Kraft said recently they are open to doing whatever, but “One way or another I’d like to see us get a top-rate, young quarterback.”

With Eliot Wolf as the “acting GM” I can’t imagine them doing anything other than taking a quarterback here barring an offer of 3+ first-round picks to make them even consider otherwise. I think J.J. McCarthy is in play here as well based on some rumors behind the scenes.

4. Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr.(WR, Ohio State)

By all accounts, the Cardinals love Marvin Harrison Jr. and if they don’t trade back, they will select him here.

The Vikings could still trade to 4, but reports came out this week that the Houston Texans approached them about swapping picks, not the other way around, which is what was initially assumed. The Cardinals may simply be asking too much because they value MHJ so highly.

5. Minnesota Vikings (Trade) - J.J. McCarthy (QB, Michigan)

All of the latest rumors about the Chargers are that they want an offensive lineman or defensive player. It doesn’t really make sense to draft Joe Alt, a LT, when they already have Rashawn Slater. Slater did play right tackle in college for a year but that was 5 years at this point. If they did stay and take an offensive lineman we could see them reach for someone with experience on the right side.

With the top 3 quarterbacks and Marvin Harrison Jr.off the board, the Chargers would likely love to trade down. The Vikings also have an extra 1st round pick at their disposal to trade up, making them a perfect match.

The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins this offseason, signing Sam Darnold. Some bigger media members have mentioned that most NFL teams don’t buy that the Vikings will head into the season with Darnold at the helm as their only option. This has caused them to lose leverage in trade-up negotiations.

In the last week we have since a bunch of reports suggesting the Vikings may not even trade up to 4 or 5 but maybe 7-9 instead. This seems like the Vikings trying to re-gain leverage and not have to massively overpay to land a new QB.

Plus, the reality is the Giants could still take a QB at 6 and also could be vying for a trade-up at 4 or 5. ESPN’s Jordan Ranaan mentioned in a recent article that Giants ownership has given Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll his blessing to trade up or draft a QB if they want.

All of this adds up to the Vikings trying their best to trade up for a QB ahead of New York (Pick 4 or 5).

6. New York Giants - Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)

With the top 4 quarterbacks off the board, the Giants would likely take one of Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze.

7. Tennessee Titans - Joe Alt (OT, Notre Dame)

The Titans could go EDGE here with Ran Carthon’s history of focusing on building the whole house out of pass-rushers, but after releasing LT Andre Dillard, they need a replacement badly. Alt continues to gain steam here as the pick and I tend to agree with the sentiment.

8. Atlanta Falcons - Laiatu Latu (EDGE, UCLA)

The Falcons also could be in play to trade down for a team looking to snag one of Rome Odunze or Malik Nabers.

Dallas Turner is a popular pick here, but there have been some rumblings that the Falcons may actually prefer Latu. Infamous NFL Twitter Insider Clemson Jeff mentioned this, and I have heard Latu is very much in consideration at 8 through other channels. On top of the speculation, the Falcons current DC, Jimmy Lake, was Latu’s coach in college for multiple years. The obvious concern is the medicals but if the Falcons staff doesn’t believe that’s a massive concern I think Latu will be the pick.

9. Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)

The Bears would be pairing their new QB, Caleb Williams, with Odunze here. Adding Odunze to a pass-catching group that already includes D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet would instantly change the Bears passing game. Odunze could go a bit higher than this, but neither the Titans or Falcons are likely in play for a wideout.

If Odunze is off the board, I have heard the Bears would make a slightly surprising pick here. I released both Odunze and that other player as official bets in our subscriber discord.

If you want all of our official NFL Draft bets and join our NFL Draft Betting discord, you can get a subscription for as low as $5 with one of our partners. You can also get VR’s exclusive discount on the regular plan, here.

10. New York Jets - Troy Fautanu (OT, Washington)

Bowers is another popular pick here, but I don’t think they go in that direction. Bowers didn’t test at the Combine or his Pro Day, and despite the addition of multiple offensive linemen in free agency, they still want to add more.

Meanwhile, Fautanu can play on the interior and fill any of the gaps that the line has throughout the year. There are rumblings the Jets really like Fautanu as well.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade) - Dallas Turner (EDGE, Alabama)

The Chargers have only had two offensive linemen in for a 30-visit so far Brandon Coleman and Kingsley Suamatai. Neither are top-15 picks. As far as I know, they have not had any of the biggest offensive line prospects in for an official 30 visit. They met with a few at the Combine or during Pro Days but it’s interesting that none of them have visited officially.

I know the Chargers recently re-signed Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, but Harbaugh has emphasized the importance of defense. If the Chargers trade down and still land a player like Dallas Turner, they would be ecstatic.

12. Denver Broncos - Jared Verse (EDGE, Florida State)

The Broncos are likely in play to trade up for a quarterback, but they don’t have a ton of ammunition without a second-round pick or additional first like the Vikings. They would have to trade their first-rounder this year and next year to even contend to move into striking distance for a QB. If they aren’t able to, there are rumors of them drafting Bo Nix here. I can’t quite get there, so I’ll have them standing pat and taking a potentially dominant pass-rusher in Verse. Broncos Insider Benjamin Allbright has mentioned he doesn’t believe the Broncos will draft Nix in the first round.

13. Las Vegas Raiders - Taliese Fuaga (OT, Oregon State)

The Raiders need help in a lot of spots, including OL and cornerback. They could opt to take Arnold but I think Fuaga makes a lot of sense playing right tackle or even potentially guard.

GM Tom Telesco was with the Raiders previously and has focused on drafting athletic players for the last six years. Six of seven draft picks have an RAS (relative athletic score) of 9.3 or higher, with Quentin Johnston being the only non-qualifier at 8.69. Fuaga has a 9.44 RAS and is rumored to be a top-3 OL in the class, according to NFL teams.

14. New Orleans Saints - Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT, Penn State)

The Saints need help badly on the offensive line, especially with the latest reports that LT Ryan Ramczyk has a degenerative knee and may not be healthy again. They continue to bulk up their offensive line here with Fashanu. Loomis also only drafts athletes early. He hasn’t drafted a single player below an RAS of 8.6 and only one player below a 9. Fashanu is another great athlete with a 9.49 RAS.

15. Indianapolis Colts - Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)

This is probably Mitchell’s floor after annihilating the NFL Scouting Combine. Chris Ballard has taken four players in the first round of his career. The players who did all the testing have an RAS of 10, 9.67, and 9.34. Mitchell’s RAS is 9.75.

16. Buffalo Bills (Trade) - Brian Thomas Jr.(WR, LSU)

The Buffalo Bills recently traded away Stefon Diggs and now land a new wideout in Brian Thomas Jr. They are very likely to take a wideout in the first round, and I could see them being aggressive with a trade-up to grab one. I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade even higher if the right wideout is available.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)

The Jags have been vocal about wanting to add cornerback talent in the draft so Arnold would be an absolute steal here for the Jaguars. They need to add good players to their defense, especially in the secondary.

18. Cincinnati Bengals - Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)

The Bengals will probably go OL here, but if Bowers is available, it’s tough to see them passing on him. They don’t have much in the way of tight end and lost Tyler Boyd in FA who did a lot of his damage over the middle of the field. There are rumblings of Bowers falling if the Jets don’t take him at 10.

19. Los Angeles Rams - Byron Murphy (DL, Texas)

The Rams' defense truly had one of the worst “on-paper” units heading into the season, littered with mid-round picks all getting their first lick at professional ball. They greatly outperformed expectations with minimal talent outside of Aaron Donald, and he has since retired. This makes a ton of sense, given their gaps.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Graham Barton (IOL, Duke)

The Steelers are very likely to pick an offensive lineman here with a focus on the interior. With Arthur Smith at OC and trading away Diontae Johnson, their run-first approach will be extremely clear. Bulking up the trenches makes a ton of sense.

21. Miami Dolphins - JC Latham (OL, Alabama)

The Dolphins' offense was among the best in the league without a good offensive line. If the Dolphins can find a way to consistently buy Tua Tagovailoa time, they will be in a much better position to continue growing the running game and expanding their passing-game repertoire. Latham has experience at guard as well as Tackle, so he could develop into a long-term starter wherever the Dolphins need him.

22. Philadelphia Eagles - Tyler Guyton (OL, Oklahoma)

The Eagles drafting a versatile offensive lineman with upside makes a ton of sense as they look to continue dominating through the trenches. Corner is a popular pick here, but Eagles beat writer Jimmy Kempski mentioned that they are likely going to be very interested in an offensive lineman.

23. Los Angeles Chargers (Trade) - Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia)

The Chargers snagged Dallas Turner with their first pick in the trade down, and with their second, they land Mims. He is raw but has a massive ceiling.

24. Dallas Cowboys - Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)

Former Cowboys LB Leighton Vander-Esch medically retired, and Cooper went on a 30-visit with the Cowboys. They have historically only drafted players with whom they have had a 30 visit. Cooper is apparently on their short list of players they are interested in.

25. Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean (CB, Iowa)

The Packers' defense continues to look good on paper and then underperform. Jaire Alexander has played well, but the Packers haven’t been able to find another corner to pair with him in base packages.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)

The Bucs could go in a variety of directions here but created pressures at the 8th-lowest rate last season. Chop ranks as one of the best pass-rushers in this class and could go much, much higher than this if a team in the teens likes him over some of the corners or offensive linemen.

27. Arizona Cardinals - Adonai Mitchell (WR, Texas)

The Cardinals double down at wideout here with Mitchell after adding Marvin Harrison Jr. at 4th overall. They would likely opt for an offensive lineman in this spot, but in this mock draft, 8 have already come off the board.

28. Seattle Seahawks (Trade) - Darius Robinson (DL, Missouri)

Some plugged-in media members have recently labeled Darius Robinson a “lock” to be a first-round pick. The Seahawks need help at DL and could have opted for Byron Murphy instead of trading down from 16.

29. Detroit Lions - Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)

The Lions need help in the secondary, and Wiggins has dropped a bit in this scenario. The uber-athletic corner would be an instant contributor for the Lions.

30. Baltimore Ravens - Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)

Like Latu, Kool-Aid is talented but has some questionable medicals. He recently ran a sub 4.5 40-yard dash at his Pro Day despite having a Jones fracture that he is undergoing surgery for shortly. He should be ready for the upcoming season, and the Ravens are known for ignoring minor red flags and just taking the best players.

31. San Francisco 49ers - Roger Rosengarten (OL, Washington)

I’m not going to say that the script is out on how to beat Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense, but the Chiefs dared the 49ers to throw by playing a ton of man, cover-0, and blitzing a lot. Purdy couldn’t hang under the pressure consistently, and part of that was due to the offensive line. I'm not taking anything away from Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive game plan, but the Niners' offensive line was not as dominant as they had been in previous years. Outside of Trent Williams, this Niners OL could use upgrades.

Rosengarten is a great zone blocker, and his high school coach was Ed McCaffrey, who helped with zone blocking in the Shanahan system. The 49ers have also shown interest in Rosengarten, with John Lynch staying after his Pro Day to talk to him. He also was working out with Joe Staley, a former 49ers OT.

32. Kansas City Chiefs - Ladd McConkey (WR, Georgia)

With Rashee Rice’s legal situation in flux the Chiefs could be looking to add a wideout here at the end of the first round. McConkey isn’t getting a ton of first-round buzz but tested extremely well and was very productive in college. I also think he is a better fit for the Chiefs over someone like Xavier Worthy considering the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown in free agency.

Honorable mentions: Jer’Zhan Newton (DL, Illinois), Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon), Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State), Bo Nix (QB, Oregon), Ennis Rakestraw (CB, Missouri).