Rashid Shaheed is 2024's Wide Receiver Breakout

In what amounted to a disappointing season for the New Orleans Saints, sophomore wide receiver Rashid Shaheed would emerge as a bright spot. With Michael Thomas continuing to miss time and fading out of the target share when on the field, Shaheed would more than double his year-to-year targets (34-to-71) en route to a WR49 finish in half-PPR points per game (8.4).

Below, we’ll take a look at how Thomas’ departure and the installation of a new offensive coordinator might affect Shaheed in 2024.

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Rashid Shaheed’s Career

Coming out of small-school Weber State as an undrafted rookie, Rashid Shaheed had trouble seeing the field much in his first year. A healthy inactive through the first five weeks of 2022, he was used as a special-teamer from Weeks 6-10 more than an offensive threat. Two explosive plays in the middle of that season earned up more playing time in the back end: a 44-yard touchdown run and a 53-yard receiving score. The UDFA would eventually get the starting nod for the Saints’ final five games, accruing a 20-324-1 stat line on 23 targets and setting the table for his sophomore outing.

Yards per route run numbers that push up against 3.0 are typically reserved for the Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and the CeeDee Lambs of the world, so we could have assumed that Shaheed’s monstrous 2.78 mark as a rookie would drop. While a 1.74 mark is by no means bad, we saw what can happen to his fantasy outlook if his quarterback is unwilling to uncork the ball.

Derek Carr (first) injured his shoulder in Week 3 of the ‘23 season, returning the next week to begin a brutal run of checkdowns. From Weeks 4-7, Saints running backs accounted for 48 targets, or, a 28% target share. Per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, that would have easily led the league if prorated for the entire season, with Russell Wilson (26%) the only QB who targeted running backs at a rate even close to that stretch from Carr.

I mention this run in reference to Shaheed because it sapped the deep game, where the receiver thrives. Carr still technically attempted the deep ball during this span —36 times, to be exact— but it wasn’t pretty. According to Sports Info Solutions’ numbers, Carr had an on-target rate of 45.7% on throws with at least 15 air yards, ranking 27th out of 31 qualifiers. He clearly wasn’t himself, which makes sense as to why he was checking the ball down so much, but it begs the question of whether or not Jameis Winston would have performed better.

Regardless, Shaheed still went on to have a much better second half of the season, producing a 26-393-3 line in eight healthy games while scoring 14+ half-PPR points on three occasions. Though his speedy, slender frame profiles him as a boom-or-bust fantasy option, a healthy Carr and some changes to the offense could result in more of the former and less of the latter.

The Saints Offense in 2024

The turnover inside the Saints offense was minimal this offseason, though there are two changeups that have a direct impact on Shaheed. The first, and likely less impactful, was the free agent departure of Michael Thomas. The veteran wide receiver has seen his play fall off precipitously since his hugely productive heydays and publicly called out his new quarterback on more than one occasion, which likely didn’t ingratiate him with Carr. His 68th-ranked 71.4% on-target catch rate on deep balls (15+ air yards) probably didn’t help, either. In contrast, Shaheed caught 100% of his 28 on-target deep balls.

The removal of Thomas is one thing, but installing OC Klint Kubiak should be an even more significant boon to Shaheed’s bottom line. In what had become a rather stale offense, the Saints finished 2023 with the least amount of dropbacks (157) that included any manner of motion. Comparing that to the league’s top-scoring offenses, the Cowboys (11th), Dolphins (1st), and 49ers (5th), we can surmise that incorporating motion into your passing offense is likely a good thing. Those three teams finished first-second-third in EPA gained on passing plays with motion.

This is where Kubiak comes in.

Son of famed offensive mind Gary Kubiak, the younger Kubiak comes from San Francisco after operating as the team’s passing-game coordinator and leading Brock Purdy to a 5,000-yard, 9.2 YPA 2023 season. His motion-centric passing game should create a wrinkle for the defense to deal with, benefitting both Carr and Shaheed in ‘24. Per Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception write-up on the receiver,

“Luckily, we’ve seen coaches off the Shanahan tree elect to use these speedy receivers effectively to stretch the field horizontally just as much as vertically and give them heavy deployment on layup routes following pre-snap/at-the-snap motion. Shaheed is a perfect candidate for that type of work. ”

So, this “dink-and-dunk” mantra we saw from Carr through so much of last season could presumably continue, but just a few more yards down the field, giving Shaheed more opportunities to flash his incredible speed. It would be unfair to compare the third-year receiver to Deebo Samuel, but it’s worth pointing out that he was one of only two players in the league (Rashee Rice) with an aDOT lower than 8.0 who earned more than 800 yards receiving.

We could see a better mix of these “layup” routes and Shaheed’s deep-ball prowess in 2024.

Projecting the Saints Pass-Catchers in Fantasy

One glaring advantage Chris Olave and Shaheed have over their fantasy counterparts is an utter lack of target competition. Alvin Kamara is admittedly a “target hog” relative to his position. However, even with his substantial target games in ‘23, his 18.1% target share when on the field is lower than 40 wide receivers. With a more robust scheme under Kubiak, we can assume that his days of 14 target performances are behind us.

The tight end room “behind” do-it-all hybrid Taysom Hill is also not projected to cause much of an issue. Juwan Johnson is currently “out indefinitely” after foot surgery, and Foster Moreau was only targeted 25 times in his first year with the team despite logging 549 offensive snaps.

Olave and Shaheed should (deservedly) account for a massive chunk of Carr’s passing production, and they each win in ways that should prevent too much overlap. The emergence of Shaheed as a full-time starter doesn’t mean Olave isn’t still a top-15 fantasy option. Conversely, Shaheed’s ability to win downfield should negate our worries about games where Olave takes a considerable piece of the pie. Heading into Year 3, Shaheed presents one of 2024’s breakout players to keep an eye on, with huge performances incoming.

Bottom Line

• Rashid Shaheed had a promising sophomore season but was often hampered by a lack of consistent, accurate downfield passing.
• Derek Carr’s return to health and a new passing offense under OC Klint Kubiak will positively impact the receiver’s floor/ceiling combination.
• The continued ascension of Chris Olave shouldn’t block his teammate’s breakout, as the two operate as complements to each other.
• According to current Underdog ADP, Shaheed is coming off of draft boards as the WR53 (104.1), behind options like Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Joshua Palmer. Understandably, drafters would prefer to aim for options that can turn into their team’s WR1 —which Shaheed cannot— but his prospective explosive weeks make for a perfect target in that range.