Can Jayden Reed's Fantasy Football ADP Fall a Bit, Please?

The Green Bay Packers crushed their 2023 draft at both the WR and TE positions. And the biggest hit so far has been Jayden Reed. After going in the 14th round in best ball drafts last year, Reed is now priced up to the fifth round. And for how much I like Reed, that price is just a bit too high for my taste.

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Jayden Reed’s Rookie Season

Reed was drafted in the second round with the 50th overall pick in the 2023 draft. And that was higher than the consensus expectation at the time. Players like Josh Downs and Jalin Hyatt had some late first-round buzz but ultimately fell to Round 3. The projection for Reed going into his rookie season was mixed. He received a 5.98 scouting grade by NFL Next Gen Stats, which is an average backup score. But he looked better in the statistics that I see. As shown in the graph below, Reed was a solid prospect all around, with a particular strength in earning targets on a per-route basis.

Reed joined a team in the Packers with a lot of youth but question marks at receiver, yet he was able to exceed expectations straight away. What I found when looking at The Most Predictable Wide Receiver Stats was we’d like our WRs to have an open score of at least 60, with elite outcomes coming from WRs with 80+ open scores. Reed hit an above-average 52 open score in 2023, which was good, but failed to meet either benchmark. In the WR clustering graph below, he falls into the above-average grouping with a focus on both making the catch and yards after the catch. However, he looked better in Reception Perception’s Jayden Reed Player Profile. The main takeaway was he was at least a 71st percentile player against man-, zone-, and press-coverage.

From an efficiency standpoint, Reed cleared the 2.0 yards per route run (YPRR) benchmark we care about. However, as shown in the table below, he was one of only five players with over 2.0 YPPR that failed to reach a 9.0% first downs per route run (1DRR) mark. That isn’t good news for his future efficiency expectations. More specifically, 85% of players that had significantly better YPRR vs 1DRR were less efficient the following season, according to Fantasy Points’ Statistically Significant: First Downs Per Route Run article.

From a volume standpoint, Reed’s 49.6 yards per game finished right in the middle of the benchmarks we care about. And he finished 2023 with an excellent eight touchdowns. Unfortunately, that 12.5% TD rate is far above the NFL average and is likely to regress in 2024. Additionally, how he earned those yards was interesting. He had a below-average target depth mostly due to designed looks. Twenty-two of his 94 targets, or about a quarter of his total, came at or behind the line of scrimmage according to SIS. Those 22 targets were tied for the 10th-most in the NFL. And 76% of his routes came from the slot, which is only a problem because of his low usage in 2-WR sets.

Packers’ Crowded Receiver Room

In the 11 regular season and playoff games where Christian Watson played, Reed ran a route on 90% of pass plays when the Packers were in a 3-WR set, according to a tweet by Adam Levitan. Unfortunately, that route rate plummeted to 3% when the Packers switched to a 2-WR set. This is an obvious point but one that is worth mentioning: we need our WRs to be on the field as much as possible to maximize their fantasy points.

With that in mind, PFF’s article Studying Wide Receiver Utilization looked at fantasy production by a WR’s role. Reed most appropriately fits as the lead slot WR in 3-WR sets but the primary backup to the X receiver in 2-WR sets. That role averaged only 8.0 PPR fantasy points per game, or 4.6 fewer points per game compared to WRs that were the lead X-WR in 2-WR sets.

What’s unfortunate for Reed is that his role is unlikely to change in 2024. The Packers have Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks, who are all more likely to be on the field in 2-WR sets. Additionally, Reed’s output wasn’t great when playing at the X in 2023. According to a tweet by Jacob Gibbs, Reed had the lowest YPRR while playing from the X relative to his total YPRR of any WR in the league. It’s a small sample, but 0.64 YPRR as the X-WR is unlikely to increase Reed’s 3-WR set usage.

The Price is (Slightly) Wrong

With all of that in mind, I think the market is over-confident in the pecking order of the Packers’ WR room. Reed goes a full round ahead of Watson and five rounds before Wicks. Wicks actually had better peripherals than Reed but on a much smaller sample size. Just like Reed, Wicks cleared our 2.0 YPRR benchmark and had an above-average open score. On top of that, Wicks earned a first down on 10.2% of his routes. The average ADP on Underdog among WRs with an elite 9.5%+ 1DRR is in the middle of the third round. Meanwhile, we can take Wicks in the 10th round.

And looking at players beyond the Packers, Reed is drafted right near Keenan Allen and before Diontae Johnson. Both of those players more cleanly hit the talent, efficiency, and volume benchmarks that I found to be predictable year-over-year. I would feel a lot more comfortable taking Reed closer to WR40 than his current WR34 price tag, which would move him to Round 5 rather than the fifth.

Bottom Line

• From a talent perspective, Reed hit an above-average open score and was a good player against man-, zone-, and press coverage during his rookie year.

• Reed cleared the 2.0 YPRR benchmark we care about, but his 1DRR indicates he’s likely to be less efficient in his sophomore season.

• While his yards per game mark was good, they came from a lot of designed looks and his 12.5% TD rate is likely to regress.

• His 3% route rate in 2-WR sets is concerning for future volume and is unlikely to change given the talent in the Packers’ receiver room.

• I prefer taking Keenan Allen at Reed’s cost or Diontae Johnson a few picks later. Additionally, I think the market is over-confident on the pecking order of the Packers’ receiving room as the gap in ADP between Reed and Wicks is too large.

• I’m hoping to target Reed if his ADP falls into the sixth round on Underdog.