C.J. Stroud has Overall QB1 Upside in 2024

C.J. Stroud is poised to build on his breakout rookie year in the 2024-25 fantasy football season. Stroud has quickly become a favorite among fantasy managers after a sensational rookie campaign where he threw for over 4,100 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Houston Texans have significantly bolstered their offense by trading for elite receiver Stefon Diggs and signing versatile running back Joe Mixon.

With these playmakers added to young talents like Tank Dell and Nico Collins, the sky is the limit for Stroud. He is expected to ascend into the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks, making him a coveted asset in drafts this season. The pressing question, as with most breakout stars, is whether his increased price tag has become too steep for the upcoming season.

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Strong Rookie Campaign

C.J. Stroud had a low bar to clear last year, with his ADP consistently placing him outside the top 20 quarterbacks. Stroud was selected after the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Jimmy Garoppolo throughout most, if not all, of the fantasy draft season. As those two quarterbacks struggled, Stroud's star rose. In 15 games last season, Stroud averaged over 22 fantasy points per game. One of the most impressive aspects of his fantasy output was his consistency. He never scored fewer than 15 points in a game he started and finished. Stroud also demonstrated the spike week potential that fantasy managers crave, delivering nine QB1 performances, including four games with over 20 points.

Sophomore Year: Rising ADP

Fantasy managers can no longer snag Stroud at the end of drafts, as his ADP has risen to the sixth round. Can he pay that price tag off? Our projections signal that it’s a reasonable price. He slots in at QB5 with a healthy projection of 300+ fantasy points.

He has only an eight-point gap to close to reach the top three at his position. The only knock against him from a fantasy perspective is his lack of rushing upside. In theory, that does potentially lower his floor but we didn’t see that harm him much in his rookie year. If he can deliver 14 games with 16 or more fantasy points again this year, along with a few 30-point blow-ups, he’ll be well on his way to justifying his ADP.

New Look Texans

The difference between preseason expectations last summer and this summer is staggering. A lot of that is thanks to the young quarterback who turned this team from one of the odds-on favorites to have the worst record, to hosting a playoff game. Much of that change has to do with the splashy acquisitions of Diggs and Mixon. However, existing receivers like Collins and Dell are just as exciting—if not more so—at least compared to Mixon.

Collins gained over 80 yards in eight of his 15 active games last season, including five 100-yard performances. He also earned five or more targets in all but three games. Dell’s season was derailed by injury but he cracked the 100-yard mark three times in 10 games while earning 4+ targets in all but one of those contests. Looking ahead, the addition of Diggs is expected to elevate the passing game to new heights.

The Texans boast three wide receivers in the top 30 of our current PPR projections, including two in the top 24. While there will certainly be competition for targets, as Stroud managers, we don’t mind who catches the ball as long as someone does.

How High is Stroud’s Ceiling

One of my favorite ways to explore a player’s range of outcomes is to see how much we need to alter stats to change a player’s ranking in the projections. Obviously, our projections lean towards a median outcome. On the aggregate, we’d expect Jalen Hurts to outscore Stroud by about 30 fantasy points if the season was played 100s or 1,000s of times.

From a fantasy scoring perspective, 30 points for a quarterback isn’t an insurmountable gap. Raising Stroud's projection to 30 touchdowns isn't much of a stretch from his current projection of 27. There have been 28 instances of a quarterback throwing for 30 or more touchdowns since the start of the 2019 season. That’s 12 points already. Adding a few rushing touchdowns and a slight uptick in efficiency could elevate him to the overall QB1 by season's end.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst-case scenario for his managers is the team leaning heavily on Mixon, causing Stroud's touchdown totals to dwindle. Passing touchdowns are relatively consistent year over year, with about 42% of the variation in totals explained by the previous year's total. The unexplained variation often results from injuries, personnel changes, or shifts in team philosophy.

If Stroud were to miss time, it would hurt the fantasy managers who drafted him. Outside of that, there's always a chance that some unlucky tackles of wide receivers inside the five-yard line turn into Mixon scores. If Stroud doesn’t improve upon his passing touchdown total from last year, he could slip to the QB10 or QB11 spot.

Bottom Line

• After a breakout rookie season, C.J. Stroud is expected to rise into the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks in the 2024-25 season due to his performance and the Houston Texans' improved offense.
• Stroud consistently exceeded expectations last season by averaging over 22 fantasy points per game, with nine QB1 performances and four games over 20 points.
• Stroud's ADP has climbed to the sixth round on Underdog and fifth according to 4for4's aggregate ADP, reflecting his increased value. He is projected as the QB5 with over 300 fantasy points, with only a narrow gap between him and the top quarterbacks.
• The Texans' acquisitions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, along with young talents like Tank Dell and Nico Collins, are expected to boost Stroud's performance further.
• Stroud has QB1 overall upside with very little non-injury-related downside. If you’re thinking of taking a quarterback early in redraft, he has a clear path to paying off his ADP.