O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 4

Sep 25, 2024

Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWOR

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 4 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	PHI	TB	26	24
3	BUF	BAL	27	24
13	CIN	CAR	28	15
1	DET	SEA	12	11
19	HOU	JAX	30	11
14	CLE	LVR	24	10
15	NO	ATL	25	10
10	LAC	KC	19	9
23	ARI	WAS	32	9
6	MIN	GB	14	8
18	PIT	IND	22	4
25	JAX	HOU	29	4
4	IND	PIT	7	3
5	KC	LAC	8	3
16	MIA	TEN	18	2
31	CHI	LAR	31	0
8	NYJ	DEN	6	-2
11	BAL	BUF	9	-2
9	DAL	NYG	5	-4
17	SF	NE	13	-4
21	LVR	CLE	17	-4
27	WAS	ARI	23	-4
7	GB	MIN	2	-5
26	CAR	CIN	20	-6
28	NYG	DAL	21	-7
12	ATL	NO	3	-9
24	SEA	DET	15	-9
20	DEN	NYJ	10	-10
22	TB	PHI	11	-11
32	NE	SF	16	-16
30	LAR	CHI	4	-26
29	TEN	MIA	1	-28

Bills @ Ravens

The Bills’ tackle tandem of Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins has been nearly perfect through three weeks of action, allowing a combined five pressures and zero QB hits. The rest of the line has been almost just as fantastic, with a league-leading 2.7% adjusted sack rate and a league-low 0.842% blown block rate.

We should be in for some good football in this matchup as the stout line heads into Baltimore to take on Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy, who will look to test the edge and try to ruin Brown and Dawkins’ nearly perfect season. If they fail to do so, we should be in for another huge fantasy performance out of Josh Allen, who leads the league in adjusted yards per attempt (10.9) when there is no defensive pressure.

While Allen has been spreading the ball out pretty thinly, Khalil Shakir has been thriving in an increased role out of the slot, notching a 14-168-2 stat line in the team’s three wins. Even if the Ravens get more pressure than we expect, Shakir can operate as a quick-hitting option and pad our fantasy boxscores as an underneath option. Dalton Kincaid also fits the bill here, and although he found the end zone last week, we might see his first truly great performance of the season here, as we look for him to finally top the 50-yard mark.

Bengals @ Panthers

The Bengals took a bit of a drop in our rankings with right tackle Trent Brown announced out for the season due to a ruptured knee tendon during the team’s Monday Night Football loss to the Commanders. It’s a blow to the team’s long-term aspirations (including an ever-fading glimpse at the playoffs), but the team drafted Georgia’s Amarius Mims with the 18th-overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, and their hand is now forced to get him on the field sooner rather than later.

Some hiccups are to be expected, but they’ll have a chance to ease him into a matchup against a Panthers team that is allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses, including their 28th rank against QB, 25th to WR, and 30th to TE. Much of that has to do with a pass rush that ranks 28th in pressure rate (25.8%), despite seeing run-heavy approaches through the first two weeks of the year.

The key to an effective showing from Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and even Mike Gesicki will likely come down to how Mims performs against pressure specialist Jadeveon Clowney. If the rookie has issues, Burrow will have to get the ball out quickly, and it might mean Gesicki loses some snaps to a blocking tight end, such as Drew Sample. Keep them all in your fantasy lineups but know that there’s a chance Gesicki takes a step back from his 138 yards over the last two games.

Eagles @ Buccaneers

After right tackle Lane Johnson was spotted vomiting on the sideline in the first half of the Eagles’ Week 3 win over the Saints, he was ruled out with a concussion and the Eagles O-line had their worst showing of the young season. After allowing 19 pressures through the first two games of the year, they allowed 18 last week, including four sacks to Jalen Hurts, who still managed to eclipse 300 yards passing.

There’s nothing concrete on Johnson (or right guard Mekhi Becton) at this point in the week, but if they have some guys getting back-up duty, they’ll at least have an easier matchup against the Buccaneers pass rush than they had with the Saints. The Bucs have the league’s lowest adjusted sack rate (2.0%) and have allowed the fourth-highest EPA per dropback (0.19) when they are not able to get pressure on the quarterback. Not great marks, but keep in mind that they’ve also played two rookie quarterbacks (Jaylen Daniels, Bo Nix) in their first three games, so those numbers could look even worse.

DeVonta Smith took a massive hit that knocked him out of Week 3, but get him in lineups if he’s cleared on time. A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert, and Hurts are all obvious jams anywhere they’re rostered.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Dolphins vs. Titans

Bill Callahan’s magic isn’t working quite yet, and with Will Levis playing like an absolute spaz, things are getting compounded. While the Titans' offensive line has allowed the league’s worst adjusted sack rate (13.9%), Levis has an ungodly 50% pressure-to-sack ratio. Due, in part, to some of the silliest turnovers you’ll ever see, the QB is also tied for the league lead in giveaways (eight).

All of these factors combined have helped the team allow 14.6 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing fantasy D/STs. To put that in context, there are 14 teams that are allowing fewer schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the quarterback position.

Saints @ Falcons

The Falcons have done a great job of building up their offensive line over the last few seasons, but they were just hit with two significant injuries that will likely keep them understaffed in this matchup and potentially one or two more. In a span of five plays, they lost right tackle Kaleb McGary and center Drew Dalman, subsequently scoring three points in the following seven drives.

One thing this team can’t afford is pressure in their immobile quarterback’s face, but that could very well be what is on the menu in Week 4. Kirk Cousins has 36 dropbacks that have been considered “under pressure” through three games; in those situations, he ranks 29th in turnover-worthy play rate (9.5%), 20th in adjusted completion percentage (66.7%), and 28th in QB rating (47.6).

The Saints have 11 sacks through three games and are a great streamer anywhere they’re still available.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
2	PHI	TB	20	18
14	CLE	LVR	31	17
3	BUF	BAL	16	13
5	KC	LAC	18	13
8	NYJ	DEN	21	13
11	BAL	BUF	23	12
13	CIN	CAR	24	11
1	DET	SEA	11	10
6	MIN	GB	15	9
16	MIA	TEN	25	9
18	PIT	IND	27	9
19	HOU	JAX	28	9
23	ARI	WAS	30	7
9	DAL	NYG	14	5
28	NYG	DAL	32	4
7	GB	MIN	9	2
4	IND	PIT	5	1
21	LVR	CLE	22	1
30	LAR	CHI	29	-1
29	TEN	MIA	26	-3
12	ATL	NO	8	-4
26	CAR	CIN	19	-7
10	LAC	KC	2	-8
17	SF	NE	7	-10
20	DEN	NYJ	10	-10
15	NO	ATL	3	-12
25	JAX	HOU	13	-12
31	CHI	LAR	17	-14
22	TB	PHI	6	-16
32	NE	SF	12	-20
24	SEA	DET	1	-23
27	WAS	ARI	4	-23

Browns @ Raiders

In a week where offensive line injuries are popping up all over the league, the Browns got hit with a big one as right guard Wyatt Teller is now purportedly out for multiple weeks due to a knee injury. Cleveland spent the entire game shuffling linemen, as left tackle Jedrick Wills also went down and didn’t return. The team went on to accrue a miserable 217 total yards while they couldn’t get anything going.

It was all pretty miserable, but if Wills can return in time for Week 4, they have a chance to return to their ground game against a Raiders defense that ranks dead last in running back yards per carry (5.53) and FTN’s open field metric (1.75). If a cobbled-together line can get any movement at all, Jerome Ford will be back in the RB2 conversation after the team essentially benched D’Onta Foreman following his two rushes for five yards in Week 3.

Chiefs @ Chargers

Isiah Pacheco missed his first of multiple games in Week 3, but the Chiefs offensive line did their job to clear lanes for fullback-turned-fantasy-star Carson Steele, as the rookie racked up 72 yards on 17 attempts. He also earned those 72 yards in the process, accruing 3.06 yards created after contact, even if his obvious lack of burst prevented him from hitting ten yards on any one carry.

The Chiefs now rank fifth in the league in adjusted line yards (5.0), and while Kareem Hunt has been activated from the practice squad, there’s still a very good possibility that Steele holds onto the majority role for at least one more week. This makes him more than viable in an intra-division where Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: