O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 7

Oct 16, 2024

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 7 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Quarterback Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
4	BAL	TB	29	25
11	ATL	SEA	31	20
5	GB	HOU	24	19
3	KC	SF	21	18
13	WAS	CAR	30	17
15	MIA	IND	26	11
12	LAC	ARI	22	10
2	BUF	TEN	12	10
9	PHI	NYG	18	9
17	CIN	CLE	25	8
21	TB	BAL	27	6
1	DET	MIN	6	5
14	CAR	WAS	19	5
24	LAR	LVR	28	4
20	CHI	BYE	20	0
18	DAL	BYE	18	0
32	NE	JAX	32	0
7	NYJ	PIT	7	0
10	MIN	DET	9	-1
19	HOU	GB	16	-3
16	SF	KC	13	-3
8	DEN	NO	5	-3
25	LVR	LAR	20	-5
6	IND	MIA	1	-5
23	SEA	ATL	17	-6
22	ARI	LAC	11	-11
27	NYG	PHI	14	-13
31	TEN	BUF	10	-21
29	JAX	NE	8	-21
26	CLE	CIN	2	-24
28	NO	DEN	3	-25
30	PIT	NYJ	4	-26

Commanders vs. Panthers

The Washington Commanders offense has been one of the most exciting storylines of the NFL season to this point, and much of that has to do with an O-line unit that has coalesced better than we imagined heading into the year. In my preseason ranks, I had the Commanders as a bottom-five unit, as I was worried about the massive amount of turnover they had in the offseason, which typically points toward a team needing time to gel through the beginning portions of the year. I was wrong.

The Commanders rank in the top half of the league in nearly every metric, including 12th in QB pressure rate allowed (30.7%) and 10th in blown block rate (2.07%). This has allowed Jayden Daniels to operate relatively unscathed, and he has delivered the second-highest completion percentage (80.3%) and 10th-highest on-target rate (81.5%) from a clean pocket.

Daniels is a slam-dunk play in this matchup (and honestly, any matchup), while Terry McLaurin is operating as a legitimate WR1 for what feels like the first time in his career. In addition to those two, Zach Ertz is once again a streaming option with a nice floor and a ceiling that may be realized if he finds the end zone in Week 7.

Packers vs. Texans

It’s not often that you associate offensive line success with a team employing a rotation. The Ravens did a pretty good job of it —at left tackle, no less— with Patrick Mekari and a banged-up Ronnie Stanley last season, and the Packers have been doing the same at right guard, with 2022 third-rounder Sean Rhyan and rookie Jordan Morgan.

Rhyan and Morgan split time in the first two weeks of the season and once again in Week 6 (Morgan missed Weeks 3-5). Over those three games, the tandem has allowed five pressures and zero sacks across 105 pass-blocking snaps while playing next to right tackle Zach Tom, who is well on his way to having a career year. The left side has been just as strong, leading to a league-low blown block rate (1.27%) and the third-best adjusted sack rate (4.6%).

While the obvious passing-game plays (Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft) should be jammed into lineups this week, Christian Watson should also be in strong consideration against a Texans defense that ranks 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

Falcons vs. Seahawks

Right tackle Kaleb McGary’s second game back from a brief 1.5-game absence produced a clean sheet (zero sacks, hurries, or pressures), and the rest of the line performed just as well. The Panthers produced a 20% pressure rate and didn’t notch a single sack on Kirk Cousins, as he threw for a breezy 223 yards on 7.4 yards per attempt. Sure, the Panthers' defense is an easy matchup for most anybody, but the Seahawks haven’t exactly fared well against opposing fantasy pieces either, ranking 28th in schedule-adjusted points allowed, including 31st in QB aFPA.

One reason for the Seahawks’ giving nature is their blazing speed on offense, where they average the third-fastest seconds per snap (25.6) while throwing at a league-high 63.7% of their plays in neutral game script. In those same metrics, the Falcons rank first (24.8) and fifth (61.2%), which points toward a shootout and is likely a good reason why this game has the second-highest total of the week (51.0).

To add more fuel to the fire, Geno Smith (239.7, first) and Cousins (215.7, fourth) both rank in the top five in passing yards per game from a clean pocket. This is a situation we should probably just be playing any and all fantasy-relevant pieces (on both sides), all the way down to Ray-Ray McCloud, for truly desperate fantasy managers.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Bengals @ Browns

The loss of Amari Cooper certainly doesn’t help matters, but this was going to be a matchup to target regardless. At 1-5, the Browns are about to embark on an entire tear-down project and tackle Jack Conklin and guard Joel Bitonio, who are both likely on the block, as are practically every other veteran.

Conklin returned to action last week and played well enough at RT, but only three snaps into the game, the struggling O-line was hit with yet more bad news. Center Nick Harris, who was receiving his second start of the season (the other coming at LT), went down and was subsequently placed on IR due to an ankle injury. This cleared the way for 2017 UDFA Michael Dunn, who allowed two sacks on the day, to move from right guard, and Zak Zinter, who allowed one more sack, to regain control of RG.

The musical chairs aspect of the unit is putting Deshaun Watson under duress, and the quarterback is responding in poor fashion. While under pressure, Watson ranks 27th (out of 34 qualifying QBs) in on-target rate (56.0%), 30th in adjusted yards per attempt (0.9), and 30th in pressure-to-sack rate (26.1%). If the Bengals are clicking on offense, Cleveland will be forced to take to the air, and D/ST fantasy points will follow.

Chargers @ Cardinals

Sometimes, it’s as easy as following the numbers. The Chargers —now the third-ranked defense in DVOA— have scored 14, 11, 5, 8, and 7 D/ST points through five games, and have done almost all of that without edge rusher Joey Bosa. After a late scratch last week, Bosa may make his return here in Week 7 and could see plenty of time across from RT Kelvin Beachum, who is currently tied for 53rd in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency metric (95.9).

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Running Back Matchups
O-Line Ranking	Team	Opponent	aFPA	Difference
6	IND	MIA	30	24
8	DEN	NO	28	20
13	WAS	CAR	32	19
3	KC	SF	15	12
11	ATL	SEA	22	11
15	MIA	IND	24	9
2	BUF	TEN	9	7
14	CAR	WAS	21	7
24	LAR	LVR	29	5
12	LAC	ARI	16	4
7	NYJ	PIT	11	4
4	BAL	TB	7	3
5	GB	HOU	6	1
1	DET	MIN	2	1
31	TEN	BUF	31	0
20	CHI	BYE	20	0
18	DAL	BYE	18	0
9	PHI	NYG	8	-1
19	HOU	GB	17	-2
25	LVR	LAR	23	-2
17	CIN	CLE	14	-3
29	JAX	NE	25	-4
32	NE	JAX	27	-5
26	CLE	CIN	19	-7
10	MIN	DET	3	-7
28	NO	DEN	20	-8
22	ARI	LAC	12	-10
27	NYG	PHI	13	-14
16	SF	KC	1	-15
21	TB	BAL	4	-17
23	SEA	ATL	5	-18
30	PIT	NYJ	10	-20

Colts vs. Dolphins

While it seems as if Jonathan Taylor is on track to play in Week 7, it’s not crazy to consider Tyler Goodson (and possibly Trey Sermon) options in what lines up as a great spot. While the Colts are averaging the fourth-highest RB yards before contact mark (2.20), the Dolphins rank 24th in EPA/att. (-0.07) and 28th in yards after contact (3.0).

The Indy O-line will likely be without center Ryan Kelly, but fourth-round rookie Tanor Bortolini has held his own when filling in this season and has helped maintain one of the best run-blocking units in all of football. Taylor is an obvious click if he’s cleared by game time, while Goodson is an acceptable spot-start due to his role in the receiving game.

Broncos @ Saints

The general ineptness of the Broncos offense has had more to do with its skill position players and a rookie quarterback learning the ropes than it has to do with its offensive line. But the running back rotation has a chance to uphold its end of the bargain in Week 7, against a Saints defense that ranks 30th in adjusted line yards (5.15), 26th in rushing DVOA, and 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.

Denver would do well to push the ball behind left tackle Garrett Bolles, who has helped RBs average the seventh-highest yards per carry (5.2) and the fourth-lowest stuff rate (12.5%) when running to the left side of the line. It’ll be hard to trust Javonte Williams after his Week 6 debacle (6-23-0, one fumble), but he did just reach a new season-high in snap rate (67.3%) while running 24 routes to Jaleel McLaughlin’s 8. He should be considered a low-end RB2 in this matchup.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: