Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Cognizant Recap

Last week will be one to forget… Davis Thompson had his worst short-game tournament since last Spring and disgustingly missed the cut. Kitayama, again, was one of the worst putters in the field. Poor putting is expected when rostering Kitayama, but his ball striking is supposed to outweigh his flaws on the greens. Unfortunately, it's hard to overcome losing 1.83 strokes putting per round. Cauley at 7300 made the cut, which is what you're looking for at his price. Sadly, he didn't make a run over the weekend and finished a mediocre T56. Harman struck the ball incredibly (the best he has since last July), gaining 1.24 strokes on approach per round. Sadly, his second-worst putting performance in the previous 12 months stopped him from really making a run at the top of the leaderboard.

API Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: TOT at Bay Hill Last 5 Years (Course History)
• SG: Ball-striking (Gaining on Approach and Off-the-tee, Difficult and Very Difficult)
• Total Driving - Last 12 months; difficult/very difficult OTT
• P5 BoB % - Last 18 months; gain ott/app diff/very diff
• SG: Putting with four different filters; Bermuda, Fast greens, Last 24 rounds & 3-putt avoidance on large greens

Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Shane Lowry $8.2K, +50/1 FD, 5th in model

Key Stats:

4th in the field SG:BS (Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)
2nd in SG:APP (Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
11th in Overall 200+ (Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)

25th in SG:ARG (Rough Length: Long)

Lowry has some of the best iron play on tour and is fresh off of a T11 finish at a relatively similar course (PGA National). Lowry is also one of the most accurate drivers of the ball, and at a course where accuracy is in demand off the tee, Lowry should shine.

JJ Spaun, $7.0K, +100/1 BOL, 27th in model

Key Stats:

23rd in SG:P (Last 3 Years on Bermuda)
5th in Overall 200+ (Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring Conditions)

13th in TOT Driving (Missed Fairway Penalty High)

3rd in SG:APP (Last 24 Rounds)

Spaun is off to the best start of his PGA career, with two Top 3 finishes in seven starts. Spaun has gained strokes on approach in every tournament this year and just logged his best tournament on the greens since last June. Spaun has always been a good ball striker, but his struggles come on the greens. Historically, Spaun seems to elevate his putting game on Bermuda greens, and we saw that last week. Spaun is also one of the best approach players from 200 yards and beyond in the field, and with 32% of approach shots coming from beyond 200 yards, Spaun should have success at Bay Hill this week.

Justin Thomas, $9.4K, +25/1 FD/DK, 10th in model

Key Stats:

1st in SG:T2G (Last 24 Rounds)

1st in SG:APP (Last 24 Rounds)
8th in ARG Prox (Rough Length: Long)

12 in SG:TOT (Last 5 Years at Bay Hill)

JT has been playing his best golf since 2022, with three Top 10 finishes in five starts this season. JT has struggled over the past couple of years with putting, and his ball-striking numbers dipped as well; he was still striking the ball amazingly but not up to his standard. In JT’s last start, he led the field on approach; this was also at a course where gaining strokes on approach is difficult (Torrey Pines). With JT’s rounding form and his recent good play at Bay Hill (T21 in 2023 and T12 in 2024), I think he has a great chance of breaking his winning drought that dates back to the 2022 PGA Championship.

Jacob Bridgeman, $6.1K, +185/1 BOL, 40th in model

Key Stats:

3rd in ARG Prox (Rough Length: Long)
8th in SG:P (Last 75 Rounds Bermuda)

7th in Bogey AVD% (Par 3 & 4 Scoring Difficult)

Bridgeman is coming off of a T2 finish at the Cognizant at PGA National, which demands shots similar to what will be demanded of him at Bay Hill. Bridgeman has one of the best short games in the field, and at a course where the GIR % is 6% lower than the tour average, golfers will be scrambling around the greens. Bridgeman’s ball striking numbers have been historically underwhelming, but last year was his first season on tour, and this year, he has shown flashes that he could be taking his ball striking to the next level; for example, Bridgeman posted his best tournament OTT in his career at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago despite missing the cut. Bridgeman has posted two straight tournaments of positive approach play for the second time in his career and looks to build on that at Bay Hill this week.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Shane Lowry

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.