DFS Tight End Strategy: DraftKings 2015 Year in Review

There aren't many expensive TEs to choose from each week, but that doesn't mean you should pay up for the security of an expensive one (read: Gronk). I will explain why in a few moments, but first I will break down the methodology I used to reach that conclusion.

I compiled some data on the performance of TEs relative to their DraftKings salary in 2015 to see what lessons we can learn going forward.

Salaries were broken down into $500 increments, then I calculated points scored per $1,000 of salary, percentage of time hitting cash game value, and percentage of time hitting tournament value. I also took a look at how each individual TE performed.

I ended up with a sample of 370 TE games from 2015 (every game where a TE had a salary and was projected for 7.0 DraftKings points or more by 4for4). The TE data will be compared across salary ranges and across positions.

The data will be laid out below and followed with some key points, and then I'll sum up the actionable takeaways at the end of the article.

Note: The sample sizes for each salary tier can be found in the appendix at the end of the article.

Salary vs. Performance

• The sample size for TEs $5,500 and above was small (just 44 total), but the sweet spot for TE value relative to other positions was in the $4,000-$4,900 salary range.

Cash Game Value

Scores needed to cash will vary weekly, but generally, if your lineup scores three points per $1,000, you'll score 150 points, which is usually good enough to place in a 50/50 league or win just over half of your head-to-heads.

• In terms of the salary tiers with significant sample sizes, you can see TEs generally hit 3x value less than the other skill positions, save for the $4,000-$4,400 range, where they are safer than WRs. Given that TE is the most volatile fantasy skill position, it makes sense to limit spending on the position in cash games.
• There were 142 TEs who hit 3x value in 2015, or 8.4 per week.

Of the 142 TEs who hit 3x value:

• the average spread was -0.50, the average over/under was 45.7, and the average team total was 23.1.
• 57.0 percent were at home, 55.6 percent were favorites, and 38.7 percent had team totals of 24 and above.
• the average receiving line was 5.9 receptions, 68.7 yards, and 0.8 TDs.
• 73.2 percent had at least five catches, 18.3 percent reached 100 yards (and the three-point bonus), and 64.7 percent scored at least one TD. While over half of WRs needed 100 yards to reach 3x value, TEs needed 100 yards to do so at less than a one-in-five clip.

Tournament Value

You're generally looking to score 200-plus points to place highly in a tournament, and you'll usually need around 250 points to take home the top prize. If your lineup scores four points per $1,000, you'll have a score of 200, which is the value point I will use to examine tournament performance:

• The data above shows that TEs generally have less upside than the other skill positions. It makes sense to be more flexible when it comes spending on TEs in GPPs versus in cash games, but there wasn't any particular advantage to doing so in 2015.
• There were 75 TEs who hit 4x value in 2015, or 4.4 per week.

Of the 75 TEs who hit 4x value:

• the average spread was -1.16, the average over/under was 45.8, and the average team total was 23.5.
• 62.7 percent were at home, 62.7 percent were favorites, and 41.3 percent had a team total of 24 or more.
• the average receiving line was 6.5 receptions, 77.7 yards, and 1.0 TDs.
• 84.0 percent had at least five catches, 26.7 percent reached 100 yards (and the three-point bonus), 77.3 percent had at least one TD, and 21.3 percent had multiple TDs.

Individual TE Value

• Value at TE came from surprise breakouts who had low preseason ADPs. TEs who had success the previous year (and thus high ADPs) such as Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Jimmy Graham, and Travis Kelce, to name a few, all find themselves on the bottom half of the list. Meanwhile, new entrants into the top-12 TE mix such as Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, Gary Barnidge, and Zach Ertz al find themselves in the top-seven.

Final Takeaways

TE is a volatile fantasy position. There aren't many expensive TEs each week, and most of the time it doesn't make sense to risk paying up for one, especially in cash games. Vegas odds and home field also played a huge role in TE production, especially compared to WR production, so both of those factors should be strong guiding forces when making selections at TE. Beyond that, look to the staples such as targets and red zone involvement to identify the the top plays at the position each week.

Appendix

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