2022 Fantasy Upside
Josh Jacobs is pretty underappreciated considering he he’s opened his career with at least 1,220 scrimmage yards in each of his first three seasons. He’s also scored 28 touchdowns and caught 107 balls during that span, including a career-high 54 on 64 targets last year. Jacobs has been a steady bell cow for the Raiders and is tough as nails. He plays through pain and is gunning for a new contract after the Raiders declined his fifth-year option.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Jacobs may see fewer targets with the addition of DaVante Adams to the offense, and Kenyon Drake is still around as well. Drake had 40 targets in 12 games in 2021. The Raiders also added Zamir White in the fourth round, another tough runner who projects to play a two-down role and may be groomed to replace Jacobs next year. Most concerning is the addition of Josh McDaniels as the head coach. McDaniels has spent the bulk of his time in New England, where fantasy managers have long struggled with picking the right running back in a given week. Even if we look at McDaniels’ short stint in Denver, with a young Knowshon Moreno leading the backfield, he gave Correll Buckhalter 27% of the carries in 2009 and the combination of Buckhalter and Lance Ball 25% of the carries in 2010. Jacobs is also a bruising runner and has been nagged by a myriad of injuries throughout his career. It’s possible durability will come into play, despite his propensity to play through pain.
2022 Bottom Line
Jacobs is going right in that running back dead zone – fifth round – so there’s some upside in drafting him at cost. He’s finished as the RB14, RB8, and RB18 over his last three seasons, respectively. Even if he stays on that trajectory, he should provide value. Look for Jacobs to try to maximize his value for one more year in Las Vegas before testing the free agency waters in 2023.
