Fantasy Upside
Justin Fields became a fantasy stud in his sophomore season, ultimately finishing with the fifth-most fantasy points among all quarterbacks. His production was led by his legs, as he fell just 63 yards shy of the NFL record for rushing yards for a quarterback in a season. Fields finished with 1,143 rushing yards, which is just the fourth time a QB has ever topped 1,000 yards on the ground in a season. His rushing success should continue in 2023, and we should also see an improvement in his passing stats. The Bears traded for WR D.J. Moore, and Chase Claypool could improve with a full offseason to learn the playbook.
Fantasy Downside
While Fields dominated on the ground last season, his passing stats were consistently lackluster. He only threw for more than 200 yards twice last season with a season high of 254. He also had a poor interception ratio, throwing 11 picks on 318 attempts. His INT% of 3.5 was second-highest among qualified QBs in 2022. He also finished 36th out of 41 eligible passers in PFF’s passing grade. It’s also worth noting that Fields missed a pair of games last season due to injury, and played a few games through injuries.
2023 Bottom Line
Fields may not put up the most impressive passing stats, but he really doesn’t have to. He was one of the most dominant fantasy players at his position last season, purely because of his rushing ability. We’re projecting another 1,100-yard season for Fields on the ground, and it seems like a safe bet that he should top 1,000 if he stays healthy. That kind of production provides a nice floor, which means Fields should at least finish as a top-10 QB in fantasy. If he’s able to improve at all as a passer, which he might with the addition of Moore, then he could finish as a top-five QB again.