Week 3 vs. Tennessee
After a stellar Week 1 performance, Thielen was bottled in Week 2 as he only caught three of his eight targets for 31 yards. The defense was all over Thielen in Week 2, but his performance can be greatly blamed on Kirk Cousin’s horrendous game that featured three interceptions and only eleven completions. There will be better days for Thielen as he is the only receiver worth throwing to on this Minnesota offense, and his Week 3 matchup against Tennessee can see that happen right away.
The Titans have faced a Courtland Sutton-less Denver Broncos and a Jacksonville Jaguars offense with a hobbled DJ Chark this season, so Thielen will be the first true alpha WR they will face this season. Once again a target hog, Theilen will see enough work to keep as a low-end WR1 in Week 3.
Week 2 at Indianapolis
Thielen’s 6-110-2 receiving line was pretty much business as usual for the now fully healthy WR1. Those who have owned him in the past typically expect big numbers from him and delivered Week 1 on the team-high eight targets. As it should go all season long, Thielen will continue to be a target hog in his Week 2 matchup against the Colts, keeping him squarely in the WR1 picture.
Week 1 vs. Green Bay
Adam Thielen’s 2019 was off to a promising start before getting derailed with injuries. Now fully healthy, Thielen will see a greater target share with the departure of Stefon Diggs and a shallow receiving group. Even though Minnesota will continue to be a run-first team, Thielen will benefit from having a very efficient Kirk Cousins almost exclusively throw him the ball. Fire up Thielen as a low-end WR1 for the season opener.
Fantasy Upside
Through the first six weeks of the 2019 season, Adam Thielen was the WR8 in fantasy football as he had five touchdowns and almost 400 receiving yards. However, a Week 7 hamstring injury cost Thielen to miss five games and derailed what appeared to be another promising season. Prior to last season, Thielen finished as the WR9 in 2017 and the WR7 in 2018, his first season with QB Kirk Cousins when he amassed career-highs in targets (153), receptions ( 113), yards(1,373) and touchdowns(9). With Minnesota trading away Thielen’s primary competition for targets in WR Stefon Diggs, Thielen is poised to be yet another target hog on a team that does not have much behind their primary WR.
Fantasy Downside
As seemingly the lone receiver for the Vikings, Thielen should command most targets for the team, however the amount of those targets can be exceedingly small. Minnesota’s heavy run scheme meant the team only passed the ball 444 times in contrast to their top-five, 476 rushing attempts. Even though there should be some positive regression in passing attempts, the 30-year-old Thielen will have to be mighty efficient with volume he gets to make a difference on fantasy rosters.
2020 Bottom Line
Prior to last season, Thielen was consistently one of the best receivers in the NFL and was a weekly WR1 in all leagues. Barring another injury, Thielen should once again be one of the league’s top producers at the position a lack of target competition coupled with a consolidated target distribution in a run-first team give Thielen serious potential for yet another 100-reception season. We have Thielen ranked 14th amongst wide receivers and his current ADP in 12-team leagues has him going in the middle of the 4th round. A true primary WR with the targets all to himself in Minnesota, Thielen has tremendous value as he has legitimate low-end WR1 potential in 2020.
Week 17 vs. Chicago Bears
Adam Thielen looks healthier as he's no longer on the injury report, and played 93% of the offensive snaps last week. But he didn't do much, finishing with no receptions on four targets. Even though he played a lot, he's probably still recovering from his injury, and it'd make too much sense for Minnesota to bench him entirely this week with nothing to play for. Thielen would be a poor fantasy option in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Green Bay Packers
Adam Thielen didn't do much in his return, finishing 3-27 off three targets. He was limited, playing on just 51% of Minnesota's offensive snaps. He should see more playing time this week as he's not even listed on the injury report anymore. Minnesota could also lean more on the passing attack this week with its first two running backs likely out with injury. Thielen carries some risk based on his performance last week, but we like him as a solid WR2 play against the Packers.
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Adam Thielen may return from injury this week as he's trending in the right direction. But he could be limited as hamstring injuries are no joke. He also gets a tough matchup against the Chargers who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. Thielen would carry a lot of risk this week if he's even active. Monitor his health, and view him skeptically as a WR3 in Week 15.
Week 9 at Kansas City Chiefs
Adam Thielen sat out last week with a hamstring injury, but has had a long time to recover now since Minnesota played on Thursday. He's been limited in practice so far this week, so his health is worth monitoring. If he is able to play, he should perform just fine, even in a tough matchup against the Chiefs. We like him as a strong WR2.
Week 7 at Detroit Lions
Minnesota's offense has been discussed heavily this season, but Adam Thielen has remained a solid receiving threat throughout. He's scored a touchdown in four of his six games and has maintained a steady level of production outside of one bad six-yard performance. He gets a solid matchup against Detroit this week and should put up similar production as he has all season. We like him as a strong WR2 option against the Lions in Week 7.
Week 6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Adam Thielen accepted Kirk Cousins' apology after Week 4 and turned it into his best game of the season. Thielen finished 7-130-2 in Week 5 off of eight targets as he finally looked like what we saw in early 2018. While exciting, we need to remember Thielen's game came in a favorable matchup. Good news for him, though, is he gets another favorable matchup this week against the Eagles as Philly is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers. Thielen is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 choice against Philly in Week 6.
