Week 15 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Adam Thielen benefitted from the Vikings' negative game script and resulting aerial attack in Week 14. He saw eight targets, catching seven of them for 65 yards and a touchdown against a porous Lions secondary. The matchup does get a bit worse this week against the Colts, but Thielen has shown some signs of life in recent weeks with weekly WR1 finishes in two out of the last three games. The addition of T.J. Hockenson has complicated the target shares in Minnesota, but their pass-happy tendencies have left room for everyone to produce in recent games. Thielen still has a low floor but is worthy of WR3 consideration in Week 15.
Week 14 at Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen had a difficult matchup against the Jets in Week 13 and returned to his pedestrian ways with 27 scoreless yards on two receptions. Thielen's overall fantasy performance has left much to be desired this season, but there are reasons to believe he could produce this week. He, and the entire Vikings offense, get a great matchup taking on a bad Lions defense in a dome. He also could benefit from the Lions selling out to slow Justin Jefferson, who they double teamed and shut down in the teams' first meeting in Week 3. Even with these factors in play, Thielen cannot be trusted as anything more than a middling flex play this week being behind Jefferson, and possibly tight end T.J. Hockenson, for targets.
Week 13 vs. New York Jets
Adam Thielen had a nice game on the Thanksgiving slate against the Patriots. Thielen saw a season-high 10 targets from Kirk Cousins and caught nine of them for 61 yards and a touchdown. Thielen's WR9 finish on the week was his best by far this season, which does cause some concern as to whether Week 12 will simply be a small blip on the radar of a down fantasy season for Thielen. He will face off with a strong Jets defense this week, although New York's rookie sensation Sauce Gardner will probably be deployed against Thielen's All-Pro teammate Justin Jefferson. Thielen is back on the flex radar after a strong performance last week coming off the Week 11 disaster against Dallas.
Week 12 vs. New England Patriots
Adam Thielen's fantasy stock took a hit with the Vikings trading for tight end T.J. Hockenson prior to Week 9, who has quickly assumed the title of Kirk Cousins' second favorite target behind Justin Jefferson. Thielen, along with all of the Vikings, had a miserable Week 11 where he didn't even finish out the game with Head Coach Kevin O'Connell pulling his starters in the blowout to avoid injury. Thielen's prospects of a bounce back in Week 12 against New England likely hinge on the Patriots selling out to take away Jefferson, leaving Thielen in single coverage. Either way, this is another difficult matchup for the Vikings and their injury-depleted offensive line. Thielen is best left on fantasy benches this week.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Adam Thielen caught five balls on seven targets for 49 scoreless yards in the Vikings' Week 10 win against the Bills. Thielen is still playing virtually all of Minnesota's offensive snaps, but he is more of an ancillary option these days as the offense is built around Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, not to mention T.J. Hockenson (who has 19 targets in his first two games as a Viking) now being in the fold. Thielen's calling card in recent seasons has been the red zone but he only has two touchdowns on the season in 2022. Without more involvement in the red zone, Thielen is not seeing the type of usage that leads to anything more than borderline WR3 numbers, and his role is at risk of dwindling given the recent changes in Minnesota's offense.
Week 10 at Buffalo Bills
Adam Thielen logged a 3-67-0 line in Week 9 to finish as a WR3 for fantasy, but he is now competing with T.J. Hockenson and Justin Jefferson for targets. Hockenson arrived in Minnesota and instantly saw nine targets to Thielen's seven in Week 9. Thielen is still playing a ton of snaps, but his target share is in jeopardy following Hockenson's arrival via trade. Thielen will also have to do battle with the Bills' formidable defense in Week 10, but he still projects as a decent flex play in what could be a high-scoring affair (assuming Josh Allen is active for Buffalo).
Week 9 at Washington Commanders
Adam Thielen has only really been a fantasy asset this season in games where he manages to find the end zone. Thielen's season-high for yardage remains the 72 receiving yards he had back in Week 4. Thielen is now 32 years old and lacks the sort of explosiveness that leads to massive yardage games as he is much more of a low-aDOT technician than a big-play threat. Another concern for Thielen is the arrival of T.J. Hockenson via trade. While it is not yet clear exactly what role Hockenson will have in Minnesota, but he is a more established player than Irv Smith Jr. and could draw additional targets to the tight end position. Any bump for Hockenson would likely come from Thielen's share rather than that of superstar WR1 Justin Jefferson. Thielen is worth a look as a WR3, but keep in mind he will likely need a touchdown to pay off as a starter.
Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Adam Thielen managed a useable fantasy day before the bye week by catching a touchdown to go along with his four catches for 36 yards. Thielen has always been good in the red zone but he is more reliant on touchdowns than ever before having maxed out at 72 yards receiving through six games. The Vikings passing game gets a great matchup this week against Arizona, making Thielen worth considering as a flex play for fantasy purposes.
Week 6 at Miami Dolphins
Adam Thielen still plays on nearly every snap for the Vikings offense (95.6% share) but his production has predictably declined as he becomes less efficient with age. Thielen's yards per route run sits at a lowly 1.26 and his 8.5 aDOT is low with virtually nothing to offer after the catch. Thielen only has one touchdown on the season as he falls further and further behind Justin Jefferson in Kirk Cousins' target distribution. Thielen may still be usable in PPR leagues with bye weeks coming, but he is tough to trust as a fantasy starter right now, even with a nondescript matchup against an average Dolphins defense on deck.
Week 5 vs. Chicago Bears
After a slow Week 1 where he only saw four targets, Adam Thielen's target count has increased to seven, eight, and now nine in subsequent games. Thielen also has 18 catches over the past three weeks and has now finished as a fantasy WR2 in consecutive games. It should be noted that Thielen is still on the field a ton; he ranks fourth among wide receivers in snap share and eighth in routes run. He's also seen six red zone targets already, good for a top-10 finish at the position. If someone in your league is still down on Thielen, it might be time to buy as he is clearly still a big part of this Minnesota offense. In the short term, Thielen makes for a good WR2/Flex option facing off against a mediocre Bears defense in Week 5.
