Week 9 at Ravens
Adam Thielen has gotten it going in the last two weeks, combining for 17 receptions, 204 yards, and two touchdowns. This was after he had put up 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. He looks like a rock-solid WR2 with upside in this potential shootout against the Ravens. The veteran wideout now has a 22.52% target share, which isn't too far from Justin Jefferson (24.04%).
Thielen is a beast in the red zone and this game could see a lot of points, so there's a good chance that the veteran finds pay dirt given his touchdown equity. While I think that it'll be Justin Jefferson who really goes off out of the Vikings wideouts in this matchup, Thielen has a high floor with good upside.
Week 8 vs. Cowboys
Thielen got back on track in the Panthers game before the bye week, catching 11-of-13 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. It was great to see him bounce back after putting up 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. Thielen has been able to get in full practices all week, so it's all systems go for Week 8.
Thielen looks like a rock-solid WR2 with upside in this projected shootout. In a game that should see several scoring opportunities, there's a good chance that Thielen will find the endzone given his touchdown equity.
Week 6 at Panthers
Thielen has been most affected by the Vikings' recent struggles on offense, limited to only five receptions for 86 yards in the last two games. The veteran wideout has now posted 50 yards or fewer in four consecutive games. He's starting to look like a touchdown-dependent player on the WR2/3 fringe.
Thielen will likely need to find the end zone to provide solid production in this tough spot. While it's concerning to see this drop-off in production for a wideout on the wrong side of 30, we still need to consider Thielen in the Top-30 wide receivers due to his terrific rapport with quarterback Kirk Cousins. Hopefully, he can get back on track here.
Week 5 vs. Lions
Thielen has finished as WR4, WR31, WR18, and WR65 this season. While he's become a bit more touchdown-dependent since Jefferson has eclipsed him in target share, the veteran continues to be a beast in the red zone, totaling four touchdowns this season. He's got a fantastic rapport with Kirk Cousins, so we need to consider him as a weekly WR2.
Thielen has a decent chance at approaching his ceiling in this smash spot against a Lions defense with one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. The risk here is that the Vikings are so effective at running the ball in this spot, making it difficult to support two wideouts with strong production, but we need to fire up Thielen as an upside WR2.
Week 4 vs. Browns
Thielen continues to be a touchdown machine, scoring four times already this season. He's tied for the team lead with four red-zone targets, establishing himself as Cousins' most trusted target between the 20s. While Jefferson is clearly the alpha in this offense, Thielen is showing no signs of slowing down. The Vikings' target share is so consolidated between Jefferson and Thielen, so we need to consider the veteran as an every-week WR2.
There's a decent chance that Thielen finds the endzone yet again in this spot, as this game has one of the highest totals on the slate. The Browns' run defense is better than their pass defense, so we don't need to worry about volume for Thielen, especially with Cousins attempting 40 passes per game. The veteran has high upside in this spot.
Week 3 vs. Seahawks
Thielen has picked up right where he left off last season, catching 15-of-17 targets for 131 yards and three touchdowns. This type of efficiency reflects the terrific rapport that exists between Thielen and Kirk Cousins. Thielen continues to be the preferred target in the red-zone, leading the team with two red-zone targets. Even in his age-31 season, the veteran wideout is showing no signs of slowing down.
Thielen needs to be considered a high-to-mid-tier WR2 on a weekly basis, especially when he's in a terrific matchup like this one against the Seahawks. Points should come flying in this one, as we the 55.5-point total is one of the highest on the slate. While Thielen doesn't run the deep routes that Jefferson does, the efficiency plus touchdown equity makes the veteran an excellent wideout this week.
Week 2 @ Cardinals
Thielen had a big game against the Bengals, catching 9-of-10 targets for 92 yards and two touchdowns. He led the Vikings in target share (21.28%) and red-zone targets (1). We can safely project the veteran wideout to remain Cousins' preferred target in the red zone, giving him a decent chance at double-digit touchdowns once again. While Thielen has lower upside than Jefferson, the veteran remains a steady WR2 going forward.
Thielen can similarly take advantage of these mediocre Cardinals' corners just like Jefferson. The Vikings will likely have to air it out to keep pace with this high-octane Cardinals offense, so we can expect another uptick in passing volume for the entire offense in this game. You'll want to make sure that Thielen is in your lineup this week because there's a decent chance that this is one of the highest-scoring games on the slate.
Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals
Adam Thielen has become a bit of a forgotten man in this offense with the emergence of Justin Jefferson and elite play of Dalvin Cook, but the veteran should still remain a steady contributor in fantasy football. While he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Jefferson, Thielen should still have a chance to provide WR2 production against this vulnerable Bengals’ secondary. Trae Waynes will be a big loss for the Bengals here.
Thielen is now the clear-cut second option in this offense, but he’s still a major threat in the red-zone, posting a 38.3% red-zone target share last season (2nd in NFL). If this type of usage continues, we won’t see significant touchdown regression (14 touchdowns in 2020), so he could remain a solid WR2. The risk of a run-heavy game-script against the Bengals affects Thielen more than Jefferson because the veteran is not as big of a downfield threat as the sophomore superstar. Having said that, Thielen looks like an upside WR2 this week in an exploitable matchup.
Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen caught 74-of-108 targets for 925 yards (12.5 Y/R) and 14 touchdowns, finishing as WR7 in half-PPR points per game. It was a strong bounce-back season after he was limited to 30 receptions and 418 yards in 10 games in an injury-plagued 2019 year. Thielen has developed phenomenal chemistry with Cousins, becoming the top option in the red zone, as evidenced by his gaudy touchdown output from this past season. He has the upside to finish as a high-end WR2, especially if the Vikings' defensive struggles continue, forcing them into more shootouts. If Justin Jefferson were forced to miss time to injury, Thielen would jump onto the WR1 radar.
Fantasy Downside
Thielen is now entering his age-31 season. He failed to eclipse 1,000 yards last year and his fantasy value was primarily due to an inflated touchdown output that is an outlier that is highly unlikely to be repeated. Jefferson has surpassed Thielen as the top target in this offense. From Weeks 10-17, Jefferson put up a 28.52% target share, much higher than Thielen’s total of 20.75%. This is bad news for a wide receiver who is now on the wrong side of 30, playing in a run-heavy offense. The Vikings need to maintain last season’s passing volume in order for Thielen to provide value. If the improved defense results in more rush attempts, this does not bode well for Thielen.
Bottom Line
While Thielen has been among the more consistent wide receivers when healthy over the past three seasons, it feels like he carries more risk than usual this season. When Stefon Diggs was in Minnesota, it was a 1A/1B target distribution among the two, while Jefferson looks like the clear-cut top option heading into the 2021 season. Currently being drafted as WR23 (47.5 ADP), it seems that Thielen’s increased risk has been baked into his cost. While Thielen isn’t a player who I’m prioritizing this season, he should be able to provide value on the WR2/3 fringe. He has too much chemistry with Cousins to completely fall off in his age-31 season.
Week 17 at Detroit
Thielen had a strong game last week against the New Orleans Saints as he caught 8-of-9 targets for 97 yards and one touchdown. It was the rookie Justin Jefferson who was targeted by Marshon Lattimore all game, which resulted in Thielen cooking the rest of the Saints secondary. He was impressive as usual and even had a highlight TD grab towards the end of the game.
Thielen will take on the Detroit Lions this week who rank 30th in aFPA to WRs this season. Last time out against the Lions, Thielen only caught two balls for 38 yards, but we expect much more from him this week. With Dalvin Cook set to miss this game, Minnesota will look to throw more. Thielen is a solid WR1 this week.
