Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Adam Thielen has come back to earth a bit the past couple of weeks. He hasn’t found the end zone in three straight games and has been held to single-digit half-PPR points in each of his last two. He wound up with just 42 yards on six receptions against the Bears last week. That said, Thielen has double-digit targets in five games this year, including 10 last week. He’s been by far the most consistent player in the Carolina offense.
This week, Thielen has a tough matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 9th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. We still have Thielen ranked as a low-end WR2, but temper expectations in a tough matchup. The Panthers are really struggling offensively, and it’s hard to predict a huge performance from anyone on their roster.
Week 10 at Chicago Bears
Adam Thielen had his worst games since the opener last week against the Colts. Despite what should’ve been a pretty good matchup, he was held to just 29 yards in a lopsided loss. Thielen was targeted six times, however, and still caught five passes, slightly salvaging his fantasy value in PPR formats.
This week, Thielen faces a Chicago defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Despite how bad the Bears have looked on defense at times this season, their secondary hasn’t been terrible. Thielen should still see a heavy dose of targets, however, making him a high-floor fantasy option. We have him ranked as a low-end WR1 this week.
Week 9 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Adam Thielen has been a great addition for the Panthers this season. He had 72 yards on eight catches against the Texans last week, and he now has double-digit targets in four of his last five outings. Thielen is easily the most trusted receiver in Carolina and is looked to early and often in every game.
Thielen is a must-start again this week in a fantastic matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis ranks 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, and Thielen should have no trouble getting consistent volume again. Look for another high probability at the end zone and another WR1 performance from the veteran. Start him.
Week 8 vs. Houston Texans
Adam Thielen continued his resurgent season against the Dolphins before the bye last week, catching 11 balls for 115 yards and his fourth touchdown of the season. He’s clearly the primary target in this offense and has developed a nice rapport with Bryce Young. Thielen has at least eight targets in every game since Week 1, including double-digit targets in three of his past four games.
This week, Thielen faces a Houston defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Thielen has been getting so many targets in this offense, it’s hard to ignore him, regardless of the matchup. Start him as a fringe-WR1 option in all league formats.
Week 6 at Miami Dolphins
Adam Thielen has been one of the few bright spots for the Panthers so far this season. He caught 11 balls for 107 yards and a touchdown in a blowout loss to the Lions - granted, his score was in garbage time - and he now has scored in three out five games as a Panther.
This week, Thielen faces a Miami defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. The Dolphins should keep running the score up, however, so there’s more potential for garbage-time fantasy stats, which did well for Thielen last week. Consider Thielen a high-floor, WR2 option this week.
Week 5 at Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen had seven catches for 76 yards last week and he’s putting together a quality fantasy season considering his low pre-season draft cost and the state of the Carolina offense. He has 27 receptions and two touchdowns in four games and has double-digit half-PPR points in three of his four outings.
Thielen has a nice and familiar matchup this week against a Detroit defense that ranks 25th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Expect the Panthers to need to throw the ball to keep up with the dynamic Detroit offense, making Thielen a sneaky WR2 option in fantasy leagues. He’s still finding ways to get open and has developed a strong rapport with rookie Bryce Young so far this season.
Week 4 vs. Minnesota Vikings
After just two catches and 12 yards in Week 1, Adam Thielen is back to doing Adam Thielen-like things. He has 20 targets and two touchdowns over the last two games combined, and he caught 11 balls for 145 yards last week in a loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers desperately need a wide receiver to step up in this offense, and it looks like Thielen could be that guy.
Thielen has a great matchup this week against a Vikings defense that ranks 30th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Thielen has been growing in this offense and his veteran savvy seems to work well with Andy Dalton’s veteran keen, giving him upside. We have him ranked as a solid WR3 option this week.
Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks
Adam Thielen caught seven of his nine targets last week and scored his first touchdown as a Panther. Thielen has a nice matchup this week against a struggling Seattle defense that has given up 61 points already in just two games, but he’s a risky bet in most fantasy leagues. The Panthers may be without Bryce Young and they look like they’re still trying to learn the offense. Thielen has some deep league upside, but is ultimately too risky to start in most fantasy formats. We have him ranked outside starter territory.
Week 17 at Green Bay Packers
Adam Thielen is now competing for targets with an All-Pro teammate in Justin Jefferson, an effective receiving tight end in T.J. Hockenson, and even a solid third receiver in K.J. Osborn. As a result, Thielen is seeing a decline in target share and only managed a 1-6-0 line on five targets last week against the Giants. Thielen's fantasy viability is largely dependent on touchdowns at this point in his career, and that almost always means the player will struggle with a low weekly floor. Thielen gets a familiar division foe this week in the Packers and their mediocre defense, but Thielen is not seeing the requisite target share to use as a starting option in a fantasy championship matchup.
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
Adam Thielen had a low-volume outing in Week 15 despite being part of a massive comeback win where the Vikings erased a 33-point deficit before winning in overtime. Thielen's four targets were well behind both Justin Jefferson (16) and T.J. Hockenson (9), but the veteran managed to find the end zone on only three catches for 41 yards and scraped out a WR3-worthy box score for fantasy. Thielen's fantasy utility is heavily dependent on touchdowns these days with Hockenson supplanting him for the second-fiddle role to Jefferson in the team's target hierarchy, but he will have a good shot at finding the end zone this week against a mediocre Giants secondary that will have their hands full with Minnesota's skill players. Thielen remains a decent fantasy WR3 heading into Week 16.
