Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints (London)
Adam Thielen is playing a ton of snaps (95% share) and running a ton of routes (15th amongst WRs at 116). The only problem is all that playing time has led to little actual production through three weeks. Thielen's 17% target share is simply too low to bring consistent fantasy production, and he is currently sporting an ugly mark of 1.28 yards per route run (70th at the position). Perhaps the only saving grace for Thielen so far is the fact that he's ninth in red zone targets amongst WRs with five. Thielen found the end zone in Week 3, but it is not a good sign that his fantasy performances look like they will depend heavily on touchdowns this season. Thielen gets the mediocre Saints defense in Week 4, but he makes for no more than a shaky flex play given recent performances.
Week 3 vs. Detroit Lions
Adam Thielen continued to place a distant second in the Vikings' WR target hierarchy in Week 2 when he gathered four receptions on seven targets and actually out-gained teammate Justin Jefferson with 52 receiving yards. The modest yardage totals for both Jefferson and Thielen tell the story of a game where the Vikings were dominated by the Eagles defense and Kirk Cousins struggled with accuracy under pressure. Week 3 should bring more production for all of the Vikings as the Lions pose a far easier matchup than the Eagles and Thielen's limited involvement thus far has been skewed to a certain extent by the extreme game scripts faced by Minnesota in both games. In a soft home matchup, Thielen is worth another shot as a flex this week.
Week 2 at Philadelphia Eagles
While the Vikings passing game trampled the Packers in Week 1, Adam Thielen did not get to participate much as teammate Justin Jefferson dominated the targets and air yards from Kirk Cousins. In fact, Cousins only threw for 95 yards that were not credited to Jefferson, leaving very little opportunity for Thielen to produce on four targets. While Jefferson is going to command a huge target share all season, things should balance out at least a bit from where they stand now, meaning Thielen is likely in store for some better days ahead. Week 2 could be one of them as the Eagles are coming off a defensive performance where they allowed 35 points to the Lions and gave up good fantasy days to D'Andre Swift, Amon Ra St. Brown, and D.J. Chark. Thielen still appears to be second in line for targets in Kevin O'Connell's new scheme, making him worthy of consideration as a flex play against Philly in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Green Bay Packers
Drafters who took Adam Thielen will be hoping he has at least one more season of highly-efficient red zone play in the tank at age 32. Coming off season-ending ankle surgery, Thielen will do battle with the familiar Packers secondary in Week 1, a unit that was tough on opposing pass catchers last season. Thielen is surely behind superstar teammate Justin Jefferson in the pecking order at this point in his career, but he still has Kirk Cousins' trust near the end zone and remains a savvy player in terms of route running and gaining separation in tight spaces. Thielen might end up being a bit touchdown-dependent this season, but he is still playable as a flex in fantasy until we see some signs that his play is dropping off for good.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen finished as a WR1 in 2020 when he caught 14 touchdowns as Kirk Cousins' go-to red zone target even as rookie phenom Justin Jefferson emerged on the same depth chart. While Thielen took a step back in 2021 (in part due to injury), he still managed 10 touchdowns in only 13 games. While Thielen will turn 32 in August and his efficiency has predictably declined as he ages, he continues to maintain fantasy relevance due to his chemistry with Cousins, particularly near the end zone. The Vikings offense is expected to play a more aggressive style this season with Mike Zimmer out of the picture and Kevin O'Connell installed as Head Coach. More trips to the red zone could balance out any loss of yardage or efficiency in Thielen's fantasy profile as he enters the late stages of his career. Thielen may not be an exciting pick, but he still brings double-digit touchdown upside and has limited target competition aside from Jefferson.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Thielen's downside begins with his age. At 32, Thielen is well past the prime age of production for WRs, and he did end up missing the final four games last season due to an ankle injury that required surgery. The Vikings may not have many established pass catching options outside of Jefferson and Thielen, but K.J. Osborn showed he could play after Thielen got hurt last year and Irv Smith Jr. is a talented prospect at tight end. Should Thielen hit an age-related cliff, Osborn and Smith look poised to absorb chunks of his target share.
2022 Bottom Line
Thielen should be useful in fantasy as a borderline WR2 due to his touchdown potential and established rapport with Cousins. Thielen is not getting any hype as a 32-year-old veteran, but at a certain point he becomes a value, especially if O'Connell follows through on his pledge to make the Minnesota offense more aggressive.
Week 16 vs. Rams
Adam Thielen looks ready to return to the lineup just in time for a shootout against the Rams. We all know about Thielen's high touchdown equity and he has a great chance at finding the endzone given the projected uptick in passing volume. I wouldn't expect a limited role considering he almost returned this past week against the Bears. You can fire him up as a WR2 with upside in this spot.
Week 13 at Lions
Adam Thielen continues to laugh at the idea of touchdown regression, finding the endzone six times in his last six games, including two against the 49ers last week. The veteran wideout is now up to 63 receptions, 686 yards, and 10 touchdowns on the season. While the yardage output isn't that great, it's clear that the touchdowns aren't going away because Cousins likes to feed him in the red zone.
The Vikings should be able to move the ball at will against this Lions defense, which should give Thielen plenty of opportunities to hit pay dirt once again. While he's the clear-cut number-two option in this offense, you still have to like him as a rock-solid WR2 with upside, especially in terrific matchups like this one.
Week 12 at 49ers
Adam Thielen continues to provide WR2 production despite average yardage output because of his insane touchdown rate. However, we can't really expect regression here since it's clear that Thielen has fantastic chemistry with Kirk Cousins. He's Cousins' favorite target between-the-20s.
However, in games like this one, where we could see a limited amount of plays, Thielen becomes riskier. He'll likely need to find the endzone in order to return WR2 value in this spot. While he's tough to bench on any given week due to his touchdown equity, I wouldn't be too excited about playing him in this game.
Week 11 vs. Packers
Adam Thielen is more at risk in this tough matchup. We've seen how low his floor can be this year, just take a look at his matchup against the Ravens where he caught 2-of-6 targets for six yards and a touchdown. Thielen has been held to 50 yards or fewer in five of nine games this year, but he's caught seven touchdowns already. This looks like it could be another floor week with inefficient production, so we might need Thielen to find the endzone in order to provide WR2 value in this spot.
Week 10 at Chargers
Adam Thielen had a dud game last week, catching 2-of-7 targets for six yards, but he did salvage a bit of production with a late touchdown. Thielen continues to get peppered in the red zone, leading the team with 10 red-zone targets. The veteran has posted two Top-12 finishes in his last three games.
Thielen is a bit more vulnerable to this tough matchup than Jefferson because the veteran runs shorter routes (9.2 aDOT). This makes Thielen depend on more volume to provide strong production. Still, we need to consider him as a WR2 because this game has a chance to turn into an absolute shootout.
