DraftKings Week 1 GPP Strategy and Picks

Sep 10, 2020

Billie Weiss/Getty Images

This is a free sample of premium weekly content contained in the 4for4 DFS subscription. Not a subscriber? Sign up now!

Below you'll find my DraftKings GPP Strategy and Picks for Week 1. This article will highlight my favorite tournament options. It should be used in conjunction with my cash game article. A good tournament lineup has a mix of players at various ownership percentages, which also includes cash game viable options. The following are players who I will likely be overweight on compared to the field—not my entire player pool.

Onslaught - Instead of stacking a popular quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, add a second pass-catcher, and maybe even the team running back to the mix.
Game Stack - In addition to your two- or three-man stack, add a player—usually the primary pass-catcher—from the opposing team. This is obvious in shootouts but is often ignored (erroneously) in games expected to be lopsided.
An off-the-board play - Rostering a pass-catcher that’s being ignored in a popular passing offense can be an effective strategy for getting exposure to a chalky team while remaining unique.

For guidance on how to formulate exposures in your personal tournament portfolio, use 4for4’s ownership projections and this guide to leverage scores. All players mentioned as cash game options are worthy of consideration as core GPP plays.

For up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

Other GPP Tools: Leverage Scores | Stack Value Reports | Ceiling Projections

Running Backs to Target

Austin Ekeler ($7,000) at Cincinnati - Ekeler ranks as our top play in the 4for4 lineup generator. He may cede some carries especially at the goalline to either Joshua Kelley or Justin Jackson. With that being said it's a perfect leverage spot to use Ekeler in place of Alvin Kamara to lower the total combined ownership of some of your rosters. There is still a chance the Chargers plan to use him as they did the first few weeks of the season last year when Melvin Gordon held out. In those games, Ekeler absolutely dominated, scoring nearly 27 fantasy points per game. Against an improved, but still below-average, Bengals defense, Ekeler will be in my lineups as a high-end pivot.
Josh Jacobs ($6,800) vs. Carolina - Will Jacobs be the receiving back? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised to see his targets per game increase a bit. These are the situations I like to target in tournaments, the unknown. Most DFS players will gravitate towards running backs with clearly defined roles. Jacobs maybe be semi-popular, but in tournaments, I'm going to attempt to be overweight on him. Not only does he face a Luke Kuechly-less Panthers run game, but now he has the added proposition of potentially more targets. The most beneficial part of using Jacobs is the natural leverage he creates. There are going to be a slew of Panthers game stacks because Teddy Bridgewater is very cheap and everyone loves rostering Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. Using Jacobs as a one-off without Panthers' players creates is where the leverage is created. If the Raiders really grind out a win on the ground you avoided the landmine Panthers' stack and took advantage of a big Jacobs game on the other end.
NOTE: My running back player pool for GPPs will be primarily made up of my cash game running backs and the two tournament options above. Given the nature of the predictability of the position, pivoting at other positions in tournaments makes more sense.

Passing Games to Target

Lions vs. Bears - This game enticed me from the minute pricing dropped on DraftKings a few weeks ago. This can be a game stack in both directions. I've been incredibly high on Matthew Stafford ($6,200) and getting him in a potential low-owned spot against the Bears will be a great leverage spot. DraftKings Sportsbook has this game at a 43.5 total, but I think that's a bit too low. The Bears have one of the better defenses in the league, which is why this is a GPP game stack. Khalil Mack will need to be neutralized and Eddie Jackson has made a name for himself at corner. The Lions have so many passing game weapons for Stafford that he'll be able to pick on the best matchup. Kenny Golladay ($6,200) and Marvin Jones ($5,500) are the obvious choices buttight end T.J. Hockenson and slot receiver Danny Amendola can be sprinkled in as well. With Adrian Peterson getting signed this week and rumored to be the lead back, I would bet we see the passing game relied on in this game. One thing I would suggest if you are creating multiple game stacks from this game is to not use Golladay and Jones together in more than one. Many of their big games come in different weeks. The same goes for the Bears side of the ball. I'm not in love with their skills players, but the matchup and game script lends me to having them in my player pool as well. Mitch Trubisky ($5,400) provides the rushing upside and we've seen him have a blow-up game on occasion. The Lions don't possess a defensive back that can shut Allen Robinson down, so he's my favorite bring back, but I also like Anthony Miller ($5,000) and of course Tarik Cohen ($4,900) as he may be in for an uptick in work with few serviceable running backs on the roster.
Falcons at Seahawks - This is another game stack that I'll be adding to my player pool. You'll most likely need to get a bit different around this game stack as it will be popular. We're waiting for Russell Wilson ($7,000) to be unleashed and perhaps this is the season it happens. One thing I like about the Seahawks passing attack is the fact that it's fairly condensed. Tyler Lockett ($6,500) can really pile on the fantasy points when he and Russ are feeling it. He eclipsed 29 DraftKings points in four contests last year. DK Metcalf ($5,800) will undoubtedly be popular as it seems he is a favorite around the industry this week. I like adding Chris Carson to these stacks as well. He flashed in the passing game last year in a few games and could fall into the end zone against this Falcons' defense. Much like the Lions' tandem, I won't tell you NOT to play Metcalf and Lockett together, but it could be a bit difficult for them both to hit their absolute ceiling in the same game. On the other side of the ball, I'm excited to see Matt Ryan dealing this year with all the weapons he has at his disposal. If this game turns into a shootout, Julio Jones ($7,700), Calvin Ridley ($6,100), Hayden Hurst ($4,300) and Todd Gurley ($6,100) are all in play for me. I will be crafting multiple game stack combinations of this game. An example of this would be something like Wilson/Carson/Lockett/Ridley/Hurst. Rotating one of the quarterbacks with three or four skill players will be a heavy part of my tournament allocation in Week 1

Other Pass Catchers to Target

Adam Thielen ($6,700) vs. Packers - Thielen just has no competition for targets in Minnesota. One of the reasons I like Thielen this year in general, but also for Week 1 is the rebuilding Vikings defense. Their identity over the last few seasons has been a run-heavy offense and tough defense. The Vikings have pretty much completely rebuilt their secondary. If the Vikings get behind, which they very well may, the targets are going to pile up for Thielen. Jaire Alexander is a tough matchup, but the Vikings will move Thielen around the formation. In years past, Thielen has had success against the Packers, this week should be no different. I like to use a mini correlation of Davante Adams and Thielen in lineups.
Miles Boykin ($4,100) vs. Browns - This is purely a Marquise Brown pivot. Brown is going to be super chalk this week and sure he can catch two bombs like he did last year Week 1 and absolutely smash, but Boykin has beat reporters and coaches clamoring about the noise he's made in camp. Boykin is an attacker of the football. He goes up and plucks balls out of the air. Usually, you find small slot receivers in the low $4,000, but not someone with the potential for multiple touchdowns like Boykin.
Zach Ertz ($5,800)/Dallas Goedert ($4,100) at Washington - The Eagles are another team with a concentrated target share that we can target here. Goedert will be very low-owned and he makes a great addition to a lineup that seems a bit chalky, especially when pivoting from Hayden Hurst or Jack Doyle, among other popular tight ends. On the flip side, in lineups where you've taken shots on some cheap wide receiver dart throws, a chalkier, more expensive Ertz would be best slotted in. With Miles Sanders banged up and potentially limited, the Eagles' entire offense could go through the tight ends and DeSean Jackson.

Defenses to Target

Colts ($3,000) at Jaguars - The Jaguars have an unstable stable of running backs heading into Week 1 which should cause them to throw the ball a bit more. Gardner Minshew is a gunslinger and could definitely be forced into multiple turnovers and sacks behind the Jaguars offensive line which rates out 24th in our offensive line rankings. Minshew has a tendency to try to make something out of nothing as well. He won't take a "safe" sack, he's going to squirm and scramble to try to get positive yardage which is probably why lost seven fumbles last year.
Ravens ($3,100) vs. Cleveland - Baker Mayfield turned the ball over 23 times last season. He can get a bit loose with the football, be it in the pocket or throwing the football. Calais Campbell can cause all kinds of disruptions up front and should prove to be a key addition for the Ravens. If the Ravens run their uber-efficient offense and score in a hurry early in the game, it's going to result in a slew of dropbacks for Mayfield and we all know how that could turn out.