Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 14
Week 13 Recap: Last week was not our finest—our biggest mistake was betting against the volume from the Rams. The 38-28 barnburner from the Rams and Cardinals led to increased play volume for both sides. Our Tyler Higbee and Robert Woods Less Thans were swiftly busted due to Jared Goff’s 47 pass attempts. Alvin Kamara continued to see marginal usage in the passing game but Emmanuel Sanders took a step forward with five receptions. Taysom Hill seems to be most interested in either throwing the ball to a wide receiver or running the ball himself. Otherwise, there weren't too many bad process mistakes.
For those reading this column for the first time, we scrape Monkey Knife Fight’s contests against our projections. I'll go through 10 plays we feel confident in exceeding (More Than) or failing to reach (Less Than) MKF's projections by the percent likelihood we give the outcome. The percentage you see in parentheses next to each player's name is the chance we believe the More Than or Less Than hits, according to our projections.
Most of our recommendations will be to side with the Less Than on MKF, as they know the majority of fantasy players like to root for more of everything—more points, more yards, more receptions, etc.—and set their numbers higher than a normal median projection. Be sure to check out our Discord server and the #mkf channel where I’ll post the full list of how our projections stack up against those of Monkey Knife Fight.
Before we dive in, a quick More or Less refresher:
More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.
Top Week 14 MKF More or Less Plays
Nyheim Hines, RB – Colts (75.6%)
- MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 3.4 receptions
Nyheim Hines’s usage in the Colts' receiving game has been scattershot. He is undoubtedly their best pass-catching back but has only caught 5+ passes four times this season. I'm not sure it's wise to count the game Jonathan Taylor didn't play two weeks ago, so that leaves Hines going over 4.5 receptions in just 3-of-10 applicable games. I’ll gladly take a Less Than in a game where the Colts aren’t expected to be in negative game script.
Aaron Jones, RB – Packers (75.6%)
- MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 3.4 receptions
Aaron Jones has only posted 5+ receptions in a game three times this season. The Packers are also touchdown favorites against the Lions, suggesting they probably won’t be forced to air it out beyond what they desire.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR – Cardinals (75.4%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 2.4 receptions
Larry Fitzgerald’s return to the lineup comes with a massive asterisk that we aren’t really sure how much he plays. This is also a relatively tough matchup against a tough Giants defense.
Tom Brady, QB – Buccaneers (74.3%)
- MKF Line: 305.5 passing yards
- 4for4 Projection: 271.8 passing yards
Although the matchup against the Vikings is good, this is a bit of an aggressive number. Tom Brady has only gone over 300 yards in 4-of-12 games this season. Minnesota's run defense has also been leaky the past five weeks, ranking 28th in run defense EPA during that time frame. While that can’t be counted against Brady in particular, the Bucs may skew a bit run-heavier than normal if they are having success on the ground.
Trey Burton, TE – Colts (72.1%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 2.6 receptions
I have no idea how Monkey Knife Fight came up with 3.5 receptions for this line. Trey Burton hasn’t caught more than 3.5 receptions in a game since Week 6. Burton has 4+ receptions in just 2-of-9 games this season—one of those games was without Mo Alie-Cox.
Curtis Samuel, WR – Panthers (70.3%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 5.3 receptions
Curtis Samuel was marked as a “high-risk close contact” player for fellow wide receiver D.J. Moore, who tested positive for COVID-19. As long as Samuel continues to test negative he should play. This puts him in a great position to act as the Panthers' No. 2 pass-catcher behind Robby Anderson. Without even looking at Moore’s expected absence, this is a bad number as Samuel has 4+ receptions in 8-of-11 games this season.
CeeDee Lamb, WR – Cowboys (66.2%)
- MKF Line: 3.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 5.3 receptions
Outside of Andy Dalton getting knocked out mid-game against Washington, CeeDee Lamb has 4+ receptions in every game this season. His target totals with Dalton under center the past few weeks: 9, 7, and 6. Based on Lamb’s production, this line is at least one reception off.
Tyler Lockett, WR – Seahawks (64.3%)
- MKF Line: 4.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 6.1 receptions
Tyler Lockett’s line is fairly accurate, but he draws a plum matchup against the Jets. He has gone over 4.5 receptions in 7-of-12 games this season and has more than five targets in 10-of-12 games. Lockett should be able to hit 5+ receptions in this one fairly easily given the matchup.
Stefon Diggs, WR – Bills (57.9%)
- MKF Line: 5.5 receptions
- 4for4 Projection: 6.8 receptions
With John Brown out of the lineup, Stefon Diggs is averaging 8.25 receptions on 11.75 targets. I get that the matchup against Pittsburgh is tough, but for someone with that type of target volume, he can afford to be slightly more inefficient.
Jonathan Taylor, RB – Colts (54.4%)
- MKF Line: 58.5 rushing yards
- 4for4 Projection: 69.5 rushing yards
It took a while but Jonathan Taylor finally looks like the explosive running back he was drafted to be. He still split time with Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins last week, but he led the team in carries (13). The Colts are now road favorites against a Raiders' swiss cheese run defense ranked 30th in run DVOA and 31st in run defense EPA, over the last five weeks.
Editor's Note: The More or Less plays and projections were available at the time of this article being published. Please refer to MKF for the most up-to-date offerings.
