Week 9 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props

Nov 07, 2020

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Week 8 Recap: Not going to lie, after the early games last week, I thought it could be my worst Sunday in years. We were 3-8 heading into the afternoon slate of games and I considered packing my bags, leaving the country and moving to the mountains in South America where you’d never hear from me again. Both players I doubled down on (A.J. Brown and Jonathan Taylor) were four quick losses. Darren Waller finished with exactly five receptions in the wind bowl, falling one catch short of the over. Denzel Mims had two catches for 42 yards in the first quarter and inexplicably saw one target the rest of the game. I was beyond frustrated. But instead of giving up, we clawed our way back. We went on a heater to close out Week 8, hitting 7-of-8 bets to finish with win 10 wins and 9 losses, down just 0.27 units. Looks like I’m staying in America for at least another week.

I’ll say it pretty much every week but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my plays on island games. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. This week we already got down on nine plays, most of which have a lot of closing line value, including Christian McCaffrey over 12.5 carries. On to Week 9…

Week 9 DraftKings Player Prop Bets

D.J. Moore Under 4.5 Receptions (+125)

I’m pretty surprised we're catching plus money on this. Moore has caught four or fewer receptions in 6-of-8 games this season and Christian McCaffrey is returning—McCaffrey should play a bigger role in the passing game than Mike Davis. We have Moore projected for 4.1 receptions—four receptions is his most likely outcome here.

Risk: 1 unit to win 1.25 units