Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Ravens at Dolphins

Nov 11, 2021

Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Intrigue awaits as the Baltimore Ravens travel to South Beach after on overtime win to face the Miami Dolphins, who have quarterback issues.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

Vegas Total and Spread

Baltimore is 7.5-point road favorites with an Over/Under of 47 points. The Ravens have an implied team total of 27.25 points, while the Dolphins have an implied team total of 19.75 points.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Tua Tagovailoa ($27) or Jacoby Brissett ($22)? Tua’s finger fracture on his throwing hand is an issue if he does play after being limited on a short week and missing Week 9. If Tua does play how effective will his throws be? Brissett may be the safer option but he offers little in the way of splash plays in the passing game. Brissett is last in the NFL in yards per attempt (5.58, min. Four starts), 1.04 behind Tagovailoa.

The Dolphins are also without DeVante Parker (hamstring) for the foreseeable future, a trusted pass-catcher. That leaves the heavy lifting to Mike Gesicki ($20) and Jaylen Waddle ($17). Only Mack Hollins ($10) has a higher average depth of target (aDOT) than Gesicki among active Dolphins, but with Brissett under center, his aDOT dipped nearly a full yard from 10.3 to 9.4. Waddle’s aDOT is cut in half with Brissett (6.5 to 3.4). The Ravens can run a Cover 2 shell and not be as concerned about Brissett uncorking a deep ball.

With the passing game limited no matter the starter, Myles Gaskin ($18) will have to hope for a workhorse back reprisal similar to Week 9 when he had 26 total touches. His role in tonight’s game will establish whether the Dolphins have a chance to keep the game close. The Ravens defense ($14) is just as susceptible to good running back play as they are quarterbacks (18th in aFPA to both). Despite a low yardage total Week 9 Gaskin was a difference-maker in Miami securing their second win. Baltimore is fourth in pressure rate, so Gaskin has to find seams in the defense.

The Ravens face one of the worst defenses in offensive points allowed to opposing offenses. Miami’s defense ($11) is 21st or worse to every scoring position except tight end. Does that change the outlook of Mark Andrews ($22)? No, because even in his worst games Andrews is used as an option to get first downs like in Week 9 against Minnesota. Lamar Jackson ($39) can also rely on Marquise Brown ($28), Rashod Bateman ($21), or himself to get chunk yard plays.

Baltimore’s pace is one of the best in the NFL, but it also is higher because they ran 89 plays Week 9 in their overtime win. With the Dolphins #NotGood on defense, a steady diet of Devonta Freeman ($17), Le'Veon Bell ($14), and Ty'Son Williams ($13) could be in store early to see if they can limit the times Jackson is exposed to hits after a long game four days ago.

In the instance the Ravens are down, Jackson has plenty of options to get back in the game: six receivers/tight ends average at least one reception and have an aDOT of 10.4 or deeper. When the passing offense wants to move the ball through the air, the attempts are there.

Close, low-scoring game

Lamar Jackson
Devonta Freeman
Le,Veon Bell
Ravens defense
Myles Gaskin
Jaylen Waddle
Dolphins defense

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Myles Gaskin ($18), Mike Gesicki ($20), and Ravens Defense ($14)

The Ravens defense should have success tonight at collecting sacks and turnovers, but is still putrid against opposing tight ends. Gaskin sticks out as a play even more if Tua is in the lineup because the Ravens will have to respect that he will take more chances than Jacoby Brissett, opening more opportunities for Gaskin near the line of scrimmage. Gaskin has 19 total red zone touches, while Gesicki has four targets inside the 20.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Ty'Son Williams ($13)

All three backs will get usage for Baltimore. Williams has the most talent among the trio despite getting fewer opportunities.

Patrick Ricard ($10)

The fullback saw five targets in Week 9, turning them into three catches, 35 yards, and a touchdown. In a high-scoring game, Ricard could have a similar stat line.

Nick Boyle ($10)

The blocking tight end could make his season debut tonight. Boyle had four red zone targets in 2020, leading to two touchdowns.

Preston Williams ($10)

Williams has been around the Dolphins for a while and has been a favorite of Brissett. In Weeks 2-5, Williams saw an average of four targets in his two games played with 19% of the team’s air yards and 10% of the team’s targets. Only three pass catchers outscored him for Miami in his two games, and one of them will not play (DeVante Parker).

Superstar Picks

Marquise Brown ($28)

The top receiver in 4for4’s Week 10 Breakout Receiver model is in line for his third consecutive game with double-digit targets.

Lamar Jackson ($39)

Yahoo! is making sure you pay for Jackson, but he is by far the best player in this game and is a threat for 300 passing yards and/or 100 rushing yards.

Myles Gaskin ($18)

Gesicki will be a popular Dolphins Superstar considering his matchup, but if Gaskin’s Week 9 workload is legit going forward, a 20-touch game for him could be the difference on Yahoo! Gaskin also has the highest non-QB ceiling for Miami.

Mark Andrews ($22)

Rashod Bateman is also intriguing as the third-most targeted Ravens pass-catcher since he was activated three games ago, but Andrews has much more touchdown equity even if he is just a ‘move the sticks’ option. The last time we saw Andrews in primetime, he finished with a 11-147-2 line.