DFS Core Four and Value Stacks: Week 15

This Week 15 NFL DFS article consists of two parts, the "Core Four" and value stacks. The Core Four are my four favorite plays on the main slate for any game format, regardless of price or projected percent rostered. All four will almost assuredly be in my cash lineup and be an integral part of my GPP core plays (though they probably won't all be in the same GPP lineup).

For the value stacks, I’ll be using 4for4's Stack Value Reports to find stacks that can take down a tournament. I like building contrarian stacks around my chalkier core of players because you only have to get one instance correct for it to hit. Though there may be a chalkier player or two within the value stack, I will usually add a piece from the game that makes the stack a bit contrarian.

For example, if we hit on a contrarian quarterback play while having a pass-catcher or two from that same game, the positive correlation of those stacks is technically getting one contrarian play correct despite filling multiple roster slots. I feel this is easier than having a chalkier stack while trying to hit multiple individual low-rostered plays throughout the rest of your lineup. Keep in mind that these are contrarian stacks, so you don’t have to use these stacks in a large percentage of lineups to be overweight on the field. They should be used in tandem with a chalkier core of players.

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Core Four Plays

Diontae Johnson and Michael Carter

With the Rams game moved to Tuesday, I'll pivot to Diontae Johnson against the 2nd worst defense v. wide receivers in the Titans. Also, Saleh was not blowing smoke with Carter getting a significant role as Ty Johnson is now inactive.

RB Sony Michel ($6,800 FD/$5,800 DK)

Darrell Henderson looks as though he won't be playing in this game against the Seahawks. With not many stud running backs on this slate, Michel owning the Rams' backfield for a third straight week seems like it's about the safest play we can make on this slate for the price. In two weeks with the lead role, Michel has 49 opportunities, made up of 44 carries and five targets. The Seahawks are allowing the second-most raw points to running backs and nearly 120 yards per game on the ground. It's clear Sean McVay has the utmost confidence in Michel as he is letting him pound the ball even more so than he let Darrell Henderson when he was in the lineup. Being that there isn't much behind Michel, he should be set to push for 25 opportunities for a third straight week.

RB James Robinson ($6,300 FD/$5,400 DK)

The recommendation for Robinson to be a core four play is obviously a bit thin, however, it's based on the narrative that he'll return to the full-time role with Urban Meyer on the street. Darrell Bevell, the interim coach, said something to the tune of James Robinson is our starting running back and he'll be treated as such this week. Robinson is simply too cheap across the industry if he returns to a full workload as has been indicated, especially against a Texans' defense that ranks 23rd in aFPA to running backs.

WR Cooper Kupp ($9,000 FD/$9,000 DK)

Despite the Rams dealing with COVID issues, it would be pretty difficult for Kupp to be any more a part of the offense than he already is. His 33% target and air yards shares put him in the upper echelon of receiver usage through 14 weeks. However, with a few key defensive pieces missing for the Rams, it's conceivable that the Rams get pushed here by the Seahawks requiring the Rams to keep their foot on the gas. In addition to key defensive pieces, Odell Beckham won't be available either. This could potentially result in an extra end zone target or two for Kupp. Last week, the Rams designed some touchdown plays for Beckham on the goal line which he converted. Against the Seahawks, it's like Kupp is the go-to end zone threat along with every other part of the field. There aren't great studs to pay up for at running back this week, which makes it easier to get Kupp in your lineup.

WR Devante Parker ($5,800 FD/$4,300 DK)

With Jaylen Waddle and his massive target share out for the week, Parker is just a supreme value at this price. This is a completely different situation than a random player filling in for Waddle and we are hoping and praying he gets the piece of the passing game. Parker is already an established receiver in this offense and has averaged eight targets per game on the season. With virtually every healthy running back on the roster possibly unavailable for this game, Parker should push for 10 targets. A perfect storm is brewing here for Parker with Waddle's target share up for grabs and the Dolphins possibly being incapable of running the ball against the hapless Jets defense.

Value Stacks to Target

QB Aaron Rodgers, Buccaneers ($7,600 FD/$7,500DK)

WR Davante Adams, Buccaneers ($8,500 FD/$8,900 DK)

TE Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Buccaneers ($5,500 FD/$5,000DK)

WR Marquise Brown, Ravens ($6,700 FD/$5,800 DK)

This game has sneaky shootout potential even with Lamar Jackson on a bum ankle—in fact, that's why I like running it back with Marquise Brown a bit more in this situation. Brown has an expected touchdown rate of 0.29 per game over the last month, yet hasn't scored in that time period. We can buy low on Brown's 28% air yard share in this game and hope that Lamar gets the start and has to remain in the pocket a bit more than usual given his ankle injury.

The entire Green Bay passing offense is running through Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling at the moment. Adams and Valdes-Scantling account for 50% of Aaron Rodgers' targets and almost 65% of air yards. The Ravens have been a pass-funnel for much of the season allowing the fewest yards per game on the ground, but the second most yards through the air. This double stack with a low-rostered bring back is going to provide a lot of leverage if you use some of the chalkier options at running back in Week 15