DFS Optimal Values, Locks and Fades: Week 4

In this article, we walk through the process of constructing an optimal lineup that will dominate your cash games on the main slate of Week 4. We start with the optimal lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings determined by the Lineup Generator. Then, we identify the players that are irreplaceable and should be locked into your lineup. For the remaining players, we discuss the main alternatives that you can swap in to make a winning team that best fits your own style.

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More Cash Game Strategy: FanDuel Breakdown | DraftKings Breakdown | Core Plays | WR/CB Matchups

FanDuel Week 4 Optimal Plays

Locks

• Jonathan Taylor ($6,600) has at least 50 rushing yards in every game and gets the second-best matchup for running backs against the Dolphins. Taylor's usage in the receiving game is a bit concerning but he's due for some touchdown regression and Miami is allowing the fifth-most red zone trips per game.
• Tyreek Hill ($8,200) has had two consecutive disappointing games. However, he's still tied with Travis Kelce with 26% of the Chiefs targets and leads the team in share of air yards. This week he gets a tough matchup against the Eagles who are the second toughest matchup for wide receivers but some of that is because they've had the second-most rushing plays called against them.
• Last week's 18-target game tells you that Davante Adams ($8,100) is back to his 2020 form. He's had back-to-back games with over 100 receiving yards and gets a Steelers defense allowing the eighth-most passing touchdowns per game.

Potential Build

Josh Allen ($8,500) is our top value play at quarterback and is coming off of his best game of the season. This week he gets a juicy matchup against the Texans who rank fourth in aFPA (schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed) to quarterbacks. That said, I'm not opposed to moving down to gain some salary. Jalen Hurts ($7,900) had an ugly outing against the Cowboys on Monday night but he still has more FanDuel fantasy points than Allen on the season. He hasn't scored fewer than 20 FanDuel fantasy points in any game this season and the Chiefs are the second-best possible matchup for opposing quarterbacks.

Paying up for high-end wide receivers obviously means we're looking for value plays at running back and our third receiver. Sony Michel ($5,800) played 74% of the snaps last week and received 23 touches against a stout Buccaneers defense. Most encouraging about his usage was the four targets he received. He gets another tough matchup against the Cardinals but he looks like he'll be a bellcow in a game with a projected 55 point total if Darrell Henderson is out. Another option in this price range is Mike Davis ($5,200). Cordarelle Patterson is stealing the headlines as the Falcons' most productive player but Davis has received a consistent workload. He's had at least 15 touches in every game and is averaging almost six targets per game. The Washington Football team is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season.

At wide receiver, Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) is looking like the alpha in Miami. Waddle has received 25% of the team's targets this season and he's not even seeing optimal usage yet. Waddle is only seeing 13% of the air yards, despite being one of the better deep threats coming out this rookie class. The Colts look like a tough matchup, ranking 10th in aFPA to wide receivers. However, it's noteworthy that they have allowed the fifth-highest yards per passing attempt and they have the sixth-lowest sack percentage when playing on the road.

It goes without saying that Travis Kelce ($8,200) is an every-week lock if you can fit him. Kelce is easily leading all tight ends in yards and fantasy points per game. It's interesting though that he's in a three-way tie in terms of target share with Darren Waller and George Kittle ($6,700). Kittle has back-to-back games playing 100% of the snaps and against the Packers, a team that can get the 49ers to put the ball in the air, he posted 92 receiving yards. Also, the pay down from Kelce to Kittle would allow us to plug in a better value play at wide receiver or running back. The bump down to Hurts at quarterback along with the move at tight end would put us in striking distance to upgrade to Najee Harris ($8,200) or a cheaper option like D'Andre Swift ($7,700), Aaron Jones ($7,400) or Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000). Swift is the highest value play of the three but I prefer the higher snap percentage and offenses for Elliott and Jones.

DraftKings Week 4 Optimal Plays

Locks

• Derrick Henry ($8,800) on DraftKings? Well not only has Henry racked up over 100 rushing yards in consecutive games but he is averaging four targets per game this season. This week he gets the Jets who have allowed the third-most PPR points to running backs this season.
• If four targets per game get you excited, you have to love Najee Harris ($8,400) and his 19 targets last week. It's not a great matchup for Harris on the ground but all of the Steelers wide receivers are on the injury report and they should be playing catch up as they are 6.5-point underdogs. It could very well be another double-digit target game for Harris.
• Cooper Kupp ($7,800) has double-digit targets and at least 96 receiving yards in every single game. The Cardinals have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers and this game has a projected game total of 55 points.

Potential Build

Just like on FanDuel, Josh Allen ($8,000) is our top value play at quarterback. Though there are a few cheaper Konami code options on DraftKings that I'm pretty interested in. Jalen Hurts is our fourth-best value play here but it's Jacoby Brissett ($5,100) who stands out as the best pay-down option. Last week Brissett added 31 rushing yards on the ground and the Colts are the 10th-best matchup for opposing quarterbacks.

Typically I look to lock in three running back options and our best option behind Henry and Harris is D'Andre Swift ($6,200). Swift is leading the Lions in target share, making him much more viable on DraftKings. Going deeper, Cordarrele Patterson ($4,900) is essentially a less reliable version of Swift. Patterson's received seven targets in back-to-back games and he's been the Falcons' best play for the price. That could lead to more work for him.

I mentioned Cooper Kupp as a lock play because he's just been that good to start the season. One way to approach wide receiver is to surround Kupp with cheap value options like the aforementioned Jaylen Waddle and Nick Westbook-Ikhine ($3,200). With Julio Jones leaving the game last week, Westbrook-Ikhine received four targets and posted 54 yards and a touchdown. That's not all that enticing but Jones and A.J. Brown are both battling injuries and are uncertain to play this week.

Another way to approach it is to move off of Kupp and lock in two mid-range options along with Waddle or Westbrook-Ikhine. Our top value plays in this range are Corey Davis ($5,000) and Cole Beasley ($5,400). Things are ugly for the Jets offense but Davis is averaging seven targets per game and Elijah Moore looks doubtful with a concussion. Beasley is averaging 10 targets per game but only 65 receiving yards.

Noah Fant ($4,300) is our second-best value play at tight end. Fant played 86% of the snaps last week but was only targeted three times. Considering the Ravens rank 12th in aFPA to opposing tight ends, I'd probably just look to move down to our fourth best value Dawson Knox ($3,600). Knox is cheaper, he's on a better offense and he has the better matchup. The Texans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.