Week 9 PrizePicks Props
Each week during the NFL season I scour through the PrizePicks Over/Under projections and compare them to 4for4's projections to highlight a few value plays. If you're not familiar with PrizePicks, they offer pick’em situations involving player stats and fantasy points. To complete an entry, select two or more options for your chance to win money up to triple your entry cost.
Do not forget to check out the 4for4 PrizePicks tool! See what I see and make picks beyond what I list each week.
Week 8 Record: 3-4
Season Record: 35-25
A brutal Week 8 that saw Derrick Henry’s rushing yard under hit because of an injury, Mo Alie-Cox goose-egging and Khalil Herbert going for negative receiving yards. Let's move on to Week 9...
Week 9 Picks
Justin Fields Over 169.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 193.4
The rookie has topped this low bar in four of five starts, including the game where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shellacked the Bears. The Steelers have allowed 170 passing yards every game this season. Again, low bar. Pittsburgh is favored by six points and should be leading enough to force Justin Fields to throw the ball.
Note: This column is meant to target Sunday’s main slate of games, but with so few options worth targeting, I included a Monday night prop that has one of the lowest bars to get over.
Alvin Kamara Under 72.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 57.2
Alvin Kamara has topped 72 rushing yards thrice and has not done so since Week 4. No matter if Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian starts (Siemian is expected to start) at quarterback, the Falcons defense is going to dare them to throw the ball.
The Saints' receiving corps is less than ideal and has had zero 100-yard receiving games. The season high in yardage belongs to Marquez Callaway with 85 yards. This could be a difficult spot for Kamara with long-term injuries casting doubt on the Saints offense.
A.J. Dillon Over 35.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 55.6
Stick tap to Sam Hoppen for pointing this out in the 4for4 NFL Betting Discord. A.J. Dillon has topped 35 yards in three of his last five games, getting double-digit carries in those games. Without Aaron Rodgers playing on Sunday, it is safe to expect the Packers to run the ball despite the Chiefs only allowing 84 rushing yards per game. Kansas City is more susceptible to the pass but a gameplan where the Packers run the ball to open the passing game is expected. The Packers are averaging 99.5 rushing yards per game and will lean on Aaron Jones and Dillon Sunday.
Brandin Cooks Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 74.9
Brandin Cooks has topped 63 yards in five of eight games, including in Week 1 when Tyrod Taylor started. Taylor is back under center and will be looking Cooks's way against a Dolphins defense that has allowed four 100-yard receivers and that allows 195 receiving yards to wideouts per game. Cooks is averaging 73.13 receiving yards per game on 6.38 receptions (11.47 targets). PrizePicks is doing players a favor this week with this prop.
Zay Jones Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 32.9
Zay Jones has six receptions this season and will have to step in and help fill the vacated targets left by Henry Ruggs III. Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow are better receivers, and a recommitment to Darren Waller should be expected after the Raiders' Week 8 bye. If we assume Jones is the third receiver target (and fourth in the pecking order including Waller), it will be difficult for Jones to top 34 yards. No. 3 receivers have topped 34 yards twice against the Giants in 2021, and that does not include tight ends.
Tyler Conklin Over 32.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 45.9
The Baltimore Ravens are one of the worst defenses against tight ends. The Ravens have allowed two 100-yard receiving efforts and a multi-touchdown game while averaging 77.86 yards allowed per game to the position. Tyler Conklin has topped 32 yards in four of seven games and is averaging 42.43 yards per game.
Nick Chubb Over 7.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projection: 16.7
I will bookend this week’s column with another low-bar prop. Believe it or not, Nick Chubb has topped seven yards receiving three times! Sure, two of them were by a combined three yards but the over is the over. Chubb is one more week back from injury and will be leaned on heavily against the Cincinnati Bengals. If the Browns are smart, they will attack the Bengals with their backs on the ground and through the air. Cincy allows 68 yards per game on the ground, as well as 63 through the air to running backs.
