Best Week 10 Prophet Exchange Bets: Colts Underwhelm Again

Most teams have shown you who they are by Week 10 and their specific weaknesses should be believed. Looking for smoke from tire fires was a guiding principle in this week’s Prophet Exchange picks. Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice. You can read here for more on the benefits of using a betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let’s see where the value lies in Week 10…

Week 10 Prophet Exchange Picks

Cowboys -4.5 @ Packers

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -105 to +100.

At what point does everyone have to look themselves in the mirror and just admit that the Packers are not a good football team? If it has not happened yet, it likely will after the Cowboys come to Lambeau.

In the Packers' current five-game losing streak, they have scored fewer than 13 points as many times as they have scored more than 20. The low point was last week in Detroit where Green Bay could only manage nine points against a defense that begs you to move the ball on them. There is blame all around. The much-discussed outside weapons cannot get open, the offensive line has not given Aaron Rodgers enough time, and Rodgers has been making bad decisions. With all that said, they are still the 15th-rated offense per DVOA on the season but the Cowboys have the top defense by a fair margin.

The injury report is not kind to the Packers either with three starting offensive linemen limited both days this week. Plus, one of the few receivers Aaron Rodgers does trust, Romeo Doubs, has not practiced this week with an ankle injury. Defensively, Rashaun Gary is out for the year and De’Vondre Campbell has not practiced this week.

On the Dallas side, they are coming off their bye and the defense has been ferocious. They lead the NFL in sacks when they have played one fewer game than the rest of the teams in the top five. Considering their banged-up offensive line, Aaron Rodgers could be running for his life.

With the state of Green Bay’s offense, there is likely room for error for the Cowboys' offense to not be close to running on all cylinders and still be able to cover the number. The Cowboys' offense only had tight end Jake Ferguson not practice on Thursday, while Ezekiel Elliott and Noah Brown were limited. Tony Pollard showed against the Bears that he is more than capable of producing out of the backfield and with Michael Gallup back in the fold, the need for Noah Brown is minimized. Even with Cooper Rush under center, the Cowboys are 10th in offensive DVOA and have the third-best rushing game. Considering the losses in the front seven and the extra rest for Dallas, the Cowboys' offense should be able to score enough, even at a cold Lambeau, to cover this number.

Colts @ Raiders Under 41 Points

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -107 to +100.

After winning last week on a Colts game under, was there any chance it would not show up again after what has happened in Indianapolis this week? Not a prayer.

Jeff Saturday was brought in to be the head coach of the Colts with no experience higher than the high school level and without a bye week to get acclimated to implement many changes. One change that did happen was *checks notes* Parks Frazier, the Assistant quarterbacks coach being named the offensive play caller. The bar is extremely low for the Colts' offense but this combo platter of question marks likely just solidifies Indianapolis as the offense with the lowest upside in the NFL.

In the two games Sam Ehlinger has started, the Colts have combined for 19 points. On the season, they are the worst offense per DVOA—31st-ranked in the pass game and 32nd in the run game. On the positive for the offense, Jonathan Taylor looks to be back this week. That is fine for the under considering more carries for Taylor means the game gets slowed and the clock bleeds out. The Raiders' defense is scary to bet on for any under, especially one with a low total but they rank 17th against the run versus dead last against the pass. There are just not many easy ways to squint and see an offensive output from the Colts even getting into the neighborhood of 20 points.

The Colts' incompetence could absolutely lead to a blowout but the Raiders are not in a great position either to maximize their offense. Two of the biggest offensive weapons for Derek Carr went on IR this week—Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Josh Jacobs has been great and Davante Adams is still there on the outside, but not having the explosive secondary options lowers the ceiling of this unit. To Indianapolis’ credit, the defense has been respectable while the offense has not. They are 11th in DVOA and fifth against the run, so there is no guarantee of smooth sailing for Josh Jacobs, even with Shaq Leonard being limited on Thursday.

There are too many obstacles in the way to see many outcomes where this game goes over this total.

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