FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Thanksgiving Slate Cash Game Breakdown

Nov 23, 2022

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In this space each week will be the top cash plays on DraftKings and FanDuel with strategies on how to build a profitable cash lineup. The backbone of 4for4’s cash game approach is our proprietary value metric, which goes beyond simple point-per-dollar projections. That value calculation extends to a player’s odds of hitting cash game value based on their implied volatility according to their floor, median, and ceiling projections.

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More Thanksgiving Slate Strategy: GPP Breakdown | Daigle’s Top Values and Picks

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($9,500 FD / $8,000 DK) vs Lions

Allen's struggles in the passing game since coming out of the bye have dropped him down to second in fantasy points per game. This is a bounce-back spot for him though as he draws the best possible matchup for quarterbacks. Despite being passed on at the 13th-lowest rate, the Lions are allowing the fourth most passing yards per game.

Dak Prescott ($8,000 FD / $6,200 DK) vs Giants

Since returning in Week 7, Prescott is averaging the ninth-most fantasy points per game. He's had three straight games passing for 250 yards along with throwing for multiple touchdowns.

Daniel Jones ($7,400 FD/$5,600 DK) vs Cowboys

In terms of projections, Jared Goff is actually the preferred floor value play but I'll side with Jones' rushing ability considering both have tougher matchups. Why is that rushing ability important? When Goff played against the Cowboys earlier this season, he passed for 228 yards and yet he scored just one fantasy point. Meanwhile, Jones had a game earlier this season where he passed for just 71 yards but he scored 21 fantasy points. We can even look to his own game against the Cowboys back in Week 3. He scored double-digit points without even finding the end zone.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,800 FD / $8,000 DK) vs Cowboys

Last week Barkley had a home matchup, received 20 opportunities, and had a total of 35 yards. If that seems completely odd and unordinary, that's because it is. Last week was the first time he was held under 50 rushing yards all season. A road matchup against the sixth-toughest defense for running backs isn't encouraging but he dropped 23 fantasy points the last time he played them.

Tony Pollard ($8,500 FD/$6,600 DK) vs Giants

The return of Ezekiel Elliott couldn't deter Pollard from having his fourth straight game with at least 80 rushing yards. Interestingly enough these are the same four games that Dak Prescott has been back for. Expect his big plays to continue up against a Giants defense allowing the fourth-highest percentage of explosive rushing plays.

Dalvin Cook ($7,800 FD/$7,400 DK) has been a man possessed when playing at home this season. When surrounded by the purple people eaters he's averaging 90 rushing yards per game and he even managed to hit 70 rushing yards on 11 attempts last week while the Vikings were getting tap danced on by the Cowboys.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($7,200 FD/$6,400 DK) vs Vikings

Stevenson came out of the bye last week playing 77% of the snaps. Considering Damien Harris was active, Stevenson has officially taken over this backfield. He hasn't received fewer than 15 touches in a game since all the way back in week 2 and he is our top value play on both sites.

It's an easy lean to favor Stevenson over Jamaal Williams ($7,100 FD/$5,900 DK) in this price range. He has received at least five targets in seven of his last eight games while Williams has barely averaged a target per game over his last eight.

Devin Singletary ($6,900 FD/$5,700 DK) vs Lions

People are excited about rookie James Cooks' performance but it overshadows the fact that Singletary continues to be the clear lead back. He received 20 touches last week and it was his fifth straight game playing over 70% of the snaps. The Lions somehow found a way to shut down Saquon Barkley last week but they still rank bottom five in all of our rushing defensive metrics.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs ($9,300 FD/$8,000 DK) vs Lions

Similar to Saquon Barkley, last week Diggs set season lows in production but he salvaged it by finding the end zone. Going into that game, Diggs had topped 90 receiving yards in five straight games. Likely the reason he has the highest odds of hitting cash value for wide receivers.

Justin Jefferson ($8,600 FD / $8,200 DK) vs Patriots

This is an interesting matchup for the Vikings offense as their top-10 passing offense goes up against a Patriots defense that ranks top five in passing EPA per play and passing yards per game. Even in a tougher matchup, Jefferson is still a good option on FanDuel if you can't get up to Diggs. He's top five in red zone targets, target share, and air yards share, and leads the league in receiving yards per game.

CeeDee Lamb ($7,900 FD / $7,100 DK) vs Giants

Besides the blowup game against the Packers, things statistically don't look all that different for Lamb since Dak Prescott returned. His target share has dipped down from 33% to 26% but his yards per game are from 68 to 85. The major difference that may go unnoticed is how his upside may be unlocked with Prescott. Over these four games his average depth of target has jumped up two points and his yards per route run is up over three. We are working with a small sample but that is elite. Of players with at least 50 targets, only Tyreek Hill has a yards per route run over three.

Another option in this range is the target vacuum, Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,600 FD/$6,600 DK). Focusing only on the games he played at least 70% of the snaps, St. Brown would lead the league with 32% of his team's targets.

Jakobi Meyers ($6,700 FD / $5,100 DK) vs Vikings

The Patriots have faced four straight defenses that ranked inside the top ten against wide receivers. In those games, Meyers averaged seven targets and just 47 receiving yards per game. Despite the poor production, that's solid volume. This week things are much easier up against a Vikings defense being passed on at the seventh-highest rate and allowing the third most passing yards per game. That's noteworthy because in the three matchups he's had against defenses that ranked inside the bottom ten against wide receivers, he's averaged nine targets and 87 receiving yards per game.

Other Cheap Options:

Darius Slayton ($6,400 FD/$5,000 DK)

Richie James ($5,400 FD/ $3,400 DK)

Tight End

T.J. Hockenson ($6,300 FD/$5,000 DK) vs Patriots

Since being traded to the Vikings back in Week 9, Hockenson ranks top three in targets and receptions per game. That hasn't amounted to a ton of yards but we're talking about a player that just joined the team three weeks ago. He's also faced three straight opponents that rank inside the top 10 in aFPA to tight ends. The Patriots defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends and if they key in on Jefferson, this could be a smash spot for Hockenson.

Dalton Schultz ($5,800 FD / $3,800 DK) vs Giants

Schultz is the preferred value play on DraftKings. With Dak Prescott under center, he has averaged roughly 50 receiving yards per game. He's also received at least five targets in all four games.

Another way to play it in this range as a move off of the likely popular Schultz is Dawson Knox ($5,500 FD/$3,500 DK). Knox isn't exactly a high-floor play but his usage is starting to ramp up. He's received at least six targets in back-to-back games and has a great matchup against the Lions. They rank bottom five in all of our defensive metrics against the pass and are allowing the third most fantasy points to tight ends.