Best Week 5 Prophet Exchange Bets: Offenses Rock in Cleveland
Week 5 brings just enough of a sample to size to start trusting the numbers being shown by teams but the depth of those numbers is where some of the edges lie in the plays this week on Prophet Exchange. Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice. You can read here for more on the benefits of using a sports betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let's see where the value lies in Week 5...
Week 5 Prophet Exchange Picks
Dolphins -3.5 @ Jets
*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -105 to +100.
The perception of both these teams from one week ago to now is very interesting and it is reflected in the number, which provides value on the Dolphins.
The biggest news is Teddy Bridgewater starting for Miami, but there may be too much of a downgrade being factored in. Considering all the discourse on Tua Tagovailoa's arm, Bridgewater is not going to hit a lot of deep balls either but showed last week he is still capable of hitting an explosive play. Bridgewater did not play great (14-23, 195 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT), but he was able to play well enough to let the rest of the talent on the roster shine. With extra rest and prep time to build a game plan around Bridgewater’s strengths, it is fair to expect Miami's offense to look more fluid than when Bridgewater came in in relief. The big caveat is with Tyreek Hill popping up on the injury report Thursday and his status.
The Jets are viewed positively after getting a win in Pittsburgh last week in Zach Wilson’s return. In that game, the Steelers had to change their quarterback and their defense continues to get beat up so a win against and scoring 24 points in Pittsburgh should not carry the weight we thought it may have a few weeks ago. It took two touchdowns in the final half of the fourth quarter just to get to 24 points.
Opponent context is critical when looking at both of these teams. The Dolphins' defensive numbers are not good but they have played Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow in the first four weeks. Positive regression, a bottom-third offense led by a signal-caller who is probably not as much of an upgrade in rating from Joe Flacco as the fan base would like it to be was the other quarterback. While the explosives may not be as consistent for the Dolphins, the offense should be steady enough to make this a value bet against a young Jets team.
Chargers @ Browns Over 47.5 Points
*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -105 to +100.
There is plenty to like in this matchup that lends itself to an over and a total that ends in the low-50s. The weather in Cleveland should always be a consideration but it is expected to be balmy for October—63 degrees with no rain and wind around 15 MPH. That's not enough wind to bother either of the strong-armed passers in this game.
On the Cleveland side, they are going to want to run the ball. While that is generally not conducive to many overs, this matchup is an exception. The Chargers are giving up the second-most yards per carry this season (5.4), which trails only the impressively-terrible Lions outfit. When Cleveland is able to get the run game going, it does open up the passing game because the Chargers will have to sell out for the run. Even if Cleveland just runs it, the fireworks should come, as they have the most 20+ yard runs in the league this season and are averaging 5.0 yards per rush, seventh in the league.
For the Chargers, they will rely on throwing, as they have the sixth-best passing DVOA in the league and Justin Herbert continues to play well after the injury against the Chiefs. There are injury concerns around the weapons for the Chargers with Keenan Allen not seeing the practice field this week so far and Gerald Everett and Josh Palmer being limited. The Browns have been a below-average pass defense by DVOA this season and they are still dealing with injuries to the defensive line that has hurt the pass rush. With that said, if there was ever a game for the Chargers to discover any semblance of a running game, this would be it. The Browns are 30th in run defense DVOA.
There are far more factors that give this game avenues to go over this total than under.
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