2023 NFL MVP Odds, Predictions, and Bets

Sep 03, 2023

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The NFL MVP award market is always a fun one to bet into. Longshots have won this award on multiple occasions, including Lamar Jackson in 2019, Patrick Mahomes in 2018, and Aaron Rodgers in 2020, who were all longer than 25/1 before the season. Last year’s MVP went to Patrick Mahomes, and he was one of the top options heading into the season.

Since 2010, quarterbacks have won MVP in 12-of-13 years. The only other player to win in that time frame was Adrian Peterson in 2012, who nearly broke the single-season rushing record and carried his team to the playoffs. Of the quarterbacks who have won MVP, all of their teams won 11 or more games. Historical trends aren’t an end-all, be-all, but they can help guide you in the right direction. Even if a quarterback is expected to take another step forward, it won’t translate to cashing an MVP ticket if they don’t win games.

Multiple players have won the MVP in back-to-back seasons, including Joe Montana, Brett Favre, and most recently, Aaron Rodgers.

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2023 NFL MVP Odds

2023 NFL MVP Bets and Notes

Patrick Mahomes

Odds: +600 at BetMGM

Mahomes is coming off an MVP season, and as I noted, repeats do happen. I personally don’t like betting on the top-end guys in a large-field market like this, but that’s mostly my personal preference. As long as he is healthy he will certainly be in the conversation.

Joe Burrow

Odds: +750 at DraftKings

Burrow has a tough path to securing a divisional win with the Ravens getting Lamar Jackson back and stacking his cupboard while expectations for Deshaun Watson and the Browns are high. Burrow would have to take his game to another level to win MVP here, along with 13-to-14 wins.

Josh Allen

Odds: +850 at DraftKings

Like the Bengals, the Bills will be facing much stiffer competition in the division, with Aaron Rodgers entering the picture and Tua Tagovailoa healthy. Allen’s MVP price isn’t necessarily overpriced, but not one I’m jumping to make especially with any uncertainty surrounding Stefon Diggs.

Jalen Hurts

Odds: +1200 at FanDuel

Hurts' MVP Odds were higher than 50/1 in some spots entering last year, and was the MVP favorite just two weeks before getting injured with two weeks left in the season. With the Eagles set to face a tougher set of opposing offenses that will actually push them this year, Hurts’ ceiling is hard to conceptualize.

Justin Herbert

Odds: +1200 at DraftKings

Herbert is widely available at 9 or 10 to 1, so Caesars is offering a really good price. With Kellen Moore taking over as OC and Quentin Johnston adding another weapon, the Chargers' offense is in a good spot to take another step forward. If they can overtake the Chiefs for the top of the NFC West, Herbert could win MVP.

Trevor Lawrence

Odds: +1800 at Caesars

The former No. 1 overall pick flashed team-carrying upside at times last season despite a mediocre supporting cast. With Calvin Ridley entering the picture and another year under his belt, the arrow is pointing up for Lawrence.

Lamar Jackson

Odds: +1600 at FanDuel

I’m buying the Ravens' resurgence after adding Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr, and a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. Similarly to the Chargers, if the Ravens win the division and usurp the Bengals, Lamar Jackson will be squarely in the MVP conversation.

Aaron Rodgers

Odds: +1600 at DraftKings

Rodgers has significantly better weapons around him now than in Green Bay and has a stronger defense that will help him win games. His coaching staff is a major question mark, but that hasn’t mattered for him in the past.

Tua Tagovailoa

Odds: +2200 at DraftKings

Tua quietly finished third in passing EPA per play behind only Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes last year. Given his excellent surroundings, he may not be in a position to win MVP barring an outrageous season, but I think there is a good chance we see another excellent year from the Dolphins' offense.

Tua Tagovailoa started and played 70%+ of the snaps in 12 games last year for the Dolphins. In those games:

• 8-4 record

• 26.4 points per game

• 3rd in EPA/Play

• 1st in explosive pass rate

• 5th in success rate

— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) May 10, 2023

Justin Fields

Odds: +2500 at Caesars

Fields showed he is a more than capable runner but had nothing around him to help the passing game. With DJ Moore and an improved offensive line, Fields is in a major prove-it year. The upside is there but I would have guessed this would be closer to 40/1.

Deshaun Watson

Odds: +4000 at Caesars

The Browns have the pieces to be a good team if Deshaun Watson shows us why he was paid a fully guaranteed contract. That wasn’t on display in his six games last year, but we know the talent exists. Yet given this is a media award even in an amazing season it's unlikely he gets enough votes to win.

Brock Purdy

Odds: +5000 at DraftKings

Purdy was announced as the 49ers starter very early in the offseason and his recovery has been encouraging. Purdy stepped onto the scene last season and played incredibly compared to expectations for Mr. Irrelevant.

Daniel Jones

Odds: +7500 at FanDuel

Danny Dimes took a big step forward last year despite minimally talented surroundings. He would need to take another massive step to be in MVP consideration.

Justin Jefferson

Odds: +10000 at Caesars

Jefferson was a few yards away from breaking the single-season receiving record and his team made it to the playoffs (think Adrian Peterson’s MVP recipe), yet still didn’t get a single first-place vote. Please, please do not waste any money betting on a non-quarterback to win MVP.