Can Cole Kmet Produce Another Top-10 Season?

A model of consistency who hasn’t missed a game in his three-year career, Cole Kmet is coming out of his third season with question marks about his fantasy viability. Though 2022 offered up new career highs in yards per reception (10.9) and catch% (72.5%), his 50 receptions for 544 yards were both well-below his 2021 marks, thanks in large part to one of the lowest pass rates we’ve seen from a team in recent history.

Through all this, Kmet still finished the season as fantasy’s TE7 on the back of his seven touchdowns. Let’s take a look at the plausibility of a 2023 duplicate top-10 TE performance and whether or not he can become a more consistent week-to-week option in his fourth NFL season.

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A Historically High Rush Rate

Not only did the Bears lead the league in rushing yards last season (3,014), they set a new franchise record, averaging over 175 yards on the ground per contest. Not only did Justin Fields finish first among quarterbacks with his 1,143 rushing yards, but he also easily led the league in scrambles, accruing 79 of them throughout the year, far more than second-place Josh Allen’s 59. This is great news for fantasy managers with Fields on their squad, but not as exciting for teams with a Chicago pass catcher on their roster.

Despite earning 24 fewer targets in the exact same amount of games played, Cole Kmet’s target share grew from 2021 to 2022, from 15.2% to 19.3%. That 2022 mark was the eighth-highest in the league and second only to Travis Kelce among tight ends who played in all 17 games. According to Sports Info Solutions’ numbers, the 2022 Chicago Bears had the least pass attempts (377) and the fifth-least dropbacks (506) since at least the 2015 season. Note that five of those seasons were of the sixteen-game variety.

Through this rushing-heavy attack, the Bears were consistently efficient while keeping the ball on the ground. They finished 2022 ranked first in yards per game, third in rushing EPA per play, and second in explosive rush%. The issue with taking such a lopsided approach in this millennium of football is; it’s just not all that effective. Despite being arguably the best rushing team in the league, they finished 20th in offensive EPA per play, 23rd in points per game, 26th in play success%, and, ultimately, 3-14 on the year.

Moving the ball through the air at a higher clip this season should improve the team’s outlook as a whole and, in turn, increase the floor of their TE1.

A More Measured Approach for 2023?

Any sort of change in approach to the offensive play-calling will likely need to correspond with Justin Fields feeling more comfortable in the pocket heading into his third professional season. No one would argue that Fields is one of the most dangerous rushers in the entire league, but in order to elevate the offense as a whole, he needs to get the ball out of his hands more often. His 3.45 seconds per throw was by far the longest out of 40 qualifying QBs. This is trending in the wrong direction, as his rookie-year number was a more manageable but not incredible 3.08.

One reason for this worrisome trend is the lack of pass-catching talent to distribute the ball to. Outside of Cole Kmet, the crew included Darnell Mooney acting as a de facto WR1, Dante Pettis, Equanimeous St. Brown, Velus Jones, and seven games of a thoroughly disinterested Chase Claypool.

This offseason offers a little more juice in the offense, including first-round right tackle Darnell Wright, free agent right guard Nate Davis, speedster deep-threat Tyler Scott, and D.J. Moore, who should add a stable WR1 option for the quarterback.

Not only that, it will be Fields’ second year with this coaching regime, which should offer him a sense of comfort and reduce his skittishness in the pocket. When asked about working in back-to-back seasons with offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, Fields said,

“It’s the first season I’m going into where it’s my second year knowing the offense, so I definitely feel more comfortable in it, just with my reads … just seeing what the defense is doing,” he said. “It’s truly amazing when you have that feeling going in, knowing where your guys are going to be, more comfortable with the footwork stuff. It’s been great.”

The Bears’ passing offense has nowhere to go but up, but with an influx of pass-catchers (including former Packers TE Robert Tonyan), it’s difficult to see Kmet carving out a larger role than he has already had.

The Bottom Line

• Cole Kmet operates as the TE1 on a team with a dangerously low pass rate over expected for fantasy purposes.
• Though the team is expected to move through the air more often in 2023, they have added multiple pass catchers, including D.J. Moore, who could easily become a target hog.
• The addition of Robert Tonyan not only puts a squeeze on Cole Kmet’s end zone targets, but he also compromises receptions at or behind the line of scrimmage, where both tight ends have operated extensively.
• Kmet is currently coming off of Underdog draft boards as the TE15 in the 12th round. If you’re going by 4for4’s rankings, he is entirely undraftable at that price, as we have him as the TE23 in best ball rankings.