Don't Neglect Christian Kirk in Fantasy Football for 2023
It is easy for people to forget about something when there is a flashy, more exciting thing replacing it. This seems to be what is happening with the Jacksonville Jaguars receiving room in 2023. While newcomer Calvin Ridley will surely be a top-notch addition to the Jags, it is vital that we do not neglect Christian Kirk, who was the WR1 on the team last year. Here’s a look at why Kirk is a value at his ADP of WR25.
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Career In Review
After spending the first four seasons of his career with the Cardinals, Kirk signed a much-criticized 4-year, 72 million dollar contract with the Jaguars last off-season. Although the contract was initially billed as an overpay, Kirk proved he was well worth the price tag. He racked up 1,108 receiving yards on 84 receptions last year en route to an overall WR11 finish in fantasy football.
Kirk primarily operated from the slot in 2022 (75.5% of the time per PFF) and established himself as Trevor Lawrence’s go-to guy. He ranked 11th among all players in receiving first downs and had a 104.7 passer rating when targeted. Kirk did not have many eye-popping performances—he was a top-5 receiver in only two weeks—but was incredibly consistent and offered stability at the receiver position.
Christian Kirk in the Jaguars’ Offense
Kirk will definitely see more competition for targets this season. Calvin Ridley had 143 targets in 2020 and 52 targets through five games in 2021. The ancillary options—Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and running back Travis Etienne—will also receive a fair share of the target pie. However, there should still be enough opportunities for all mouths to be fed in this offense. Trevor Lawrence had the seventh most pass attempts in 2022 and supported Engram as the TE6, Etienne as the RB17, and Jones as the WR26 alongside Kirk. The entire Jaguars supporting cast should also see an inherent boost because this offense projects to be a top-10 unit. This means that Kirk, who led the Jags with eight receiving touchdowns last season, should have plenty of scoring opportunities in 2023.
To be honest, I feel like the Ridley-Kirk competition will shake out a lot closer to a 1A / 1B situation than with Ridley as the clear-cut top option. After all, Ridley hasn’t played an NFL game in over a year and a half, so he might struggle to get back in the swing of things. Even if Ridley is great immediately, Kirk will benefit from his presence as defenses will have to divert their attention from Kirk. Considering Ridley is an outside threat, Kirk will be given more room to operate underneath. I’m not sure why Ridley is going significantly further ahead of Kirk in drafts (WR18), as both of them are basically in the same situation.
Assessing Christian Kirk’s Floor and Ceiling
I think Kirk will have a rather high floor in fantasy despite the addition of Ridley. The Jaguars are still paying a pretty penny for Kirk, so he will not just be forgotten about as an option. He should easily offer WR3 production based on pure volume and receives a bump in half-PPR and PPR formats.
Pretty much every season, there are a pair of receivers on the same team that both finish as WR1s. In 2023, there’s no reason to believe Ridley and Kirk—who each already have seasons as a top-12 option—can’t do that.
| Season | Team | Teammates | Fantasy Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Eagles | A.J. Brown & DeVonta Smith | WR5 and WR9 |
| 2022 | Dolphins | Tyreek Hill & Jaylen Waddle | WR2 and WR7 |
| 2021 | Buccaneers | Mike Evans & Chris Godwin | WR9 and WR12 |
| 2020 | Vikings | Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen | WR6 and WR8 |
| 2019 | Buccaneers | Chris Godwin & Mike Evans | WR2 and WR12 |
| 2018 | Vikings | Adam Thielen & Stefon Diggs | WR7 and WR11 |
| 2018 | Steelers | Antonio Brown & JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR4 and WR9 |
Almost all of these duos were in high-flying offenses led by a great QB, which is exactly what the Jaguars have. This is obviously a best-case scenario—Kirk’s realistic ceiling is probably a little lower because he is less of a big play threat, but this is already built into his ADP. I would much rather have Kirk than some of the WR1s on bad teams going ahead of him, like Christian Watson, D.J. Moore, and Terry McLaurin. In the sixth round of drafts, Kirk would be a great WR3 or FLEX option for your team. Looking at other second-option receivers, I believe Kirk is a lot closer to guys like Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, and Tee Higgins than to more questionable number twos like Tyler Lockett and Mike Williams.
The Bottom Line
- Kirk is a great player who is coming off a career year with the Jaguars where he was a fantasy WR1.
- The arrival of Calvin Ridley means Kirk has a cloudier path to volume this year, but the Jaguars offense should be good enough to support the two of them.
- Kirk has a high floor because of his role as the possession receiver in the Jaguars' offense. There is also a scenario where Kirk and Ridley continue the trend of elite WR duos and each has great seasons.
- Kirk is a value at his ADP of WR25. He will see enough volume to consistently be a low-end WR2 / high-end WR3 and has the potential to far outperform that.
