The Fantasy Football Impact of DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee

Hopkins’ 2022 Season

Let’s start with how much Hopkins has left in the tank. While the age is concerning, when he returned from his suspension last season, the talent remained on display. Out of nine games played, he had eight games with double-digit half-PPR fantasy points. In fact, he was a solid fantasy WR1 while he was active and would’ve been the WR7 on the season if you extrapolate his numbers over a full season.

*Data found using the Stat App at 4for4.com

The extrapolated touchdowns are the only low part of the above equation, but he remained a target hog. The low touchdown total on a struggling Cardinals’ offense only punctuates his impressive ability to remain a top fantasy option without leaning on finding the end zone. While his ADP will surely rise now that he’s officially signed somewhere, the kind of talent and production he showed he’s still capable of would be a bargain in the late fifth round, where he’s currently going according to our Multi-Site ADP tool.

The Cardinals weren’t exactly in great shape while Hopkins was starting, either. He was vying for looks with Marquise Brown, who saw the same amount of high snap count Hopkins did while he was active. Brown was the WR6 in half-PPR fantasy points heading into Week 7 when Hopkins returned. During Hopkins’ nine active games, he proceeded to outscore Brown 13.3 to 6.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game. And in four of those games – plus most of a fifth game – quarterback Kyler Murray was sidelined by injury.

Based on what Hopkins did in 2022, there’s no reason to suspect there’s been any kind of talent drop-off heading into his age-31 season.

Hopkins’ Fit on the Titans

I’ll admit it. I was disappointed at first glance when I saw this tweet from Adam Schefter:

Titans are giving WR DeAndre Hopkins a two-year contract. pic.twitter.com/4pctOGvkYf

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 16, 2023

“Not the Titans,” I said out loud, as my four-year-old looked inquisitively at me. The concern on her face was palpable. I’m not certain whether she has strong feelings about DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans, or her dad’s noticeable change in demeanor while spinning her on the twirly whirl at a large park in Redmond, Oregon.

“I’m okay honey, just sports,” I said, reassuringly. This seemed to satisfy her, as she bellowed “faster!” at the top of her lungs and all was right again in the world – if not in my fatigued shoulder.

As I spun her around with her soon-to-be-seven-year-old sister, I started thinking more and more about the fit and why it wasn’t necessarily the death knell of Hopkins’ time as a fantasy star. Sure, the Titans aren’t exactly bursting with fantasy potential. Of course, I’m concerned about a lame-duck quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, coming off a disappointing season and clearly on the downside of his career. Obviously, the offense focusing on the powerful legs of Derrick Henry is something to be aware of when assessing Hopkins’ value. “Why would Hopkins choose Tennessee?” was the question continuing to echo in my mind.

Then I remembered: the Titans really need Hopkins.

As I mentioned earlier, Robert Woods led the team in receiving yards last year. He did this while being available on waivers in most fantasy leagues. They have last year’s first-round pick Treylon Burks on the roster, but outside of him, they’re banking on guys like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Phillips, and Chris Moore as they still try to recover from trading A.J. Brown a year ago.

Burks might fit better as a large slot receiver, capable of using his tremendous after-the-catch ability to move the chains. Adding Hopkins outside may actually help Burks reach his full potential, taking defensive pressure off him and allowing him a couple of extra seasons to grow as an NFL receiver.

The Titans also signed Hopkins for significant money. We know NFL contracts can often be smoke and mirrors, but a two-year deal at $26 million is definitely more encouraging than some of the other deals we’ve seen for receivers. Odell Beckham signed with the Ravens for only one year and D.J. Chark was only able to get one year and $5 million from the Panthers. Free agency wasn’t kind to wide receivers in 2023. The Titans didn’t sign Hopkins to that deal to have him stand on the sidelines, and he didn’t sign there expecting to block for Derrick Henry every down. I suspect they’ll use him.

The Titans have a concerning quarterback situation. Tannehill was limited to 12 games last year and threw just 13 touchdown passes, his lowest total since his rookie year. He’s entering his age-35 season, and his game has long been predicated on his athleticism as a former wide receiver in college. Backing up Tannehill is rookie Will Levis, a second-round pick with a big arm and big upside. But as our own John Daigle explains, he has some serious question marks in his profile:

However, Hopkins has long been the type of player who makes quarterbacks better.

*Table taken from Pro Football Reference

He’s had successful fantasy seasons with the likes of T.J. Yates and Brock Osweiler at the helm, and while Watson and Murray dominate the above list, it’s impressive to see 11 quarterbacks on the list of players who he’s caught a touchdown pass from. I’m not saying Hopkins is quarterback-proof, but he can certainly still produce with subpar play. You can argue Tannehill and Levis have at least as much upside as T.J. Yates and Ryan Fitzpatrick, no disrespect to the bearded magician, of course.

While I worry about fewer targets to go around in Tennessee than in Arizona, I think the quality of targets should be there, and I think Hopkins will be featured as the primary receiving option. Tannehill was able to produce WR1 numbers often with A.J. Brown, so there is precedent for Hopkins to produce.

Bottom Line

• Hopkins’ fifth-round ADP is likely to fluctuate now that he’s found a home, but he’s currently a value given his potential to put up WR1 numbers.
• The Titans have a large void in their passing offense, which Hopkins should fit well.
• Hopkins proved after his suspension last year that he still has elite talent.
• Hopkins has been able to produce despite poor quarterback play at multiple points throughout his career.