FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Wild Card Sunday Slate Breakdown

Jan 13, 2024

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

On a short slate, it’s usually wise to favor GPPs and avoid or limit cash games. With so few players on the slate, there is more overlap between lineups than on the main slate, which leads to much more variance—exactly what we are trying to avoid when grinding cash games.

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For those used to playing full slates, consider these potential adjustments or listen to this DFS MVP theory segment on playing short slates:

Short slates are not all about value - With so few players in the pool, there will inevitably be a ton of overlap in lineups which naturally leads to a high variance slate. For this reason, it makes sense to focus on GPPs. (Putting your tournament lineups in small 50/50s or multipliers, however, can be a nice way to give your lineups a floor). Rather than building lineups with all of the best point-per-dollar plays, consider game flow scenarios and build lineups that follow a logical narrative relative to those scripts—strategies such as full onslaughts are very much in play.
Consider non-traditional lineup builds - On short slates, there are some lineup construction strategies to consider that would never make sense on a full slate. Some examples are playing more than one running back from the same game or same team in a lineup, rostering one or two players against your defense, and leaving salary on the table. It’s going to be tough to find contrarian stand-alone players—look for other ways to be unique.
There is leverage to be had at the “onesies” - Full slates will rarely have any quarterback, tight end, or defense in more than 15%–20% of lineups in large-field GPPs. On slates such as this one, players at those positions could approach 50% ownership in even the largest fields. This presents a rare opportunity to be contrarian at positions where ownership is usually quite flat.
Stick to a (relatively) small player pool - It’s tempting to try to cover all of your bases when the player pool is so small but that will only dilute your good reads. Narrow in on a small core with your favorite off-the-board plays and be way overweight on those players. Coupled with strong correlation plays, this is how to build a profitable portfolio on a short slate.
Don’t forget about late swaps - With no overlap between games, this slate may offer the biggest edge of the year when it comes to late swap. Teams that are contrarian early have an especially big edge with the ability to swap off of popular players in late games if they are doing poorly or stay on chalky players if their early contrarian plays hit. For more information on late swap theory, listen to this DFS MVP segment.

Sunday Showdown Slates: Packers at Cowboys | Rams at Lions

Monday Showdown Slates: Steelers at Bills | Eagles at Buccaneers

Steelers at Bills (-10.0); O/U 37.0

UPDATE: This game has been moved to Monday but will still be included in both main slates

Game Notes

Despite being 10-point favorites, three teams on the slate have a higher team total than the Bills—Pittsburgh has a team total below 14.
Over the final six weeks of the season, the Bills threw at the 10th-lowest rate relative to expectation but had the seventh-highest EPA per play—in that span, Josh Allen leads all players in rushing touchdowns.
In Mason Rudolph’s three starts, Pittsburgh ranks 28th in passing rate over expectation but 14th in pass EPA per play—they rank seventh in rush EPA per play in that span.
With Rudolph at quarterback. The Steelers’ target-per-game leaders are George Pickens (5.0), Jaylen Warren (5.0), Diontae Johnson (4.7), and Pat Freiermuth (2.0).