Wild Card Saturday Single-Game NFL DFS: Dolphins and Chiefs Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 12, 2024

Wild Card Saturday Single-Game DFS: Dolphins at Chiefs

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for a fantastic AFC Wild Card Saturday Night Football clash between the Dolphins and Chiefs. Both teams finished the year with an 11-6 record, but each had their share of ups and downs this season. The Dolphins, having lost three of their last five games, are heading into the playoffs with questions about their ability to hold it together defensively, and whether they can get back early-season form on offense. Similarly, the Chiefs, after a strong start, have shown more vulnerability than years past. Let’s dig into the top plays and key strategies for this single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Dolphins (19.75) @ Chiefs (24.25); Over/Under 44

The wind chill in this game is expected to drop to -10 degrees or lower, causing challenges to both teams, particularly in their passing games. This will be the coldest game quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has started, either in college or the pros. It's an environment that could test both teams' adaptability and resilience, potentially altering usual game scripts and strategies.

The Dolphins come in as the 6-seed in the AFC, a bit of a disappointment as they lost the AFC East crown to Buffalo in Week 18. Their season was a tale of two halves, with an incredibly strong start followed by several significant late-season stumbles. The Dolphins were exactly league-average this season in pass rate and pace during neutral scripts, but overall, ranked 24th in pace of play. This tendency was influenced by their fifth-best average scoring differential, indicating that, when in control, they prefer or a more methodical offensive approach.

Their offense is always capable of quick strikes, but averaged just 3.6 deep attempts per game, slightly below the league average. They average 4.6 red zone pass attempts per game, right at the NFL average. They scored 3.4 offensive touchdowns per game this season, but that number has dropped to 1.7 over their last three contests, a major point of concern for this team’s Super Bowl aspirations. Miami's offense is getting a boost with the return of Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert. However, their defense is significantly hampered, with their linebacking corps particularly affected by injuries.

Kansas City secured the 3 seed in the AFC playoffs despite a bumpy road to the postseason themselves. They tend to play faster and more uptempo than most, even when considering their top-10 average score differential. Similar to Miami, they slow down when in control. Mahomes throws more in the red zone more than any other quarterback, which makes up for his slightly below-average deep passing numbers this season.

Averaging 2.2 offensive touchdowns per game, the Chiefs' production on a per-game basis has been again, statistically average, but their potential for explosive plays remains so long as Mahomes is at the helm. The Chiefs are relatively healthy, and likely get back wide receiver Kadarius Toney back in the lineup, a stark contrast from the beat-up Dolphins on the other side.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

The narrative around Tagovailoa's 2023 is a bit complex. His late-season numbers cast a shadow over what was, in most metrics, his most impressive season as a pro. He ranked in the top 10 among quarterbacks in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), true drive success rate, and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game.

The Miami running backs' remarkable 34 touchdowns naturally deflated Tagovailoa's overall production, but Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards and ranked fifth in passing touchdowns. He was top five in true passer rating, true completion percentage, and PlayerProfiler’s accuracy rating. Without adding any significant rushing production, Tagovailoa finished the season ranked 16th in fantasy points per game at his position.

Patrick Mahomes enters this playoff game following a rest week, as the Chiefs were able to rest their starters in Week 18. This season can be characterized as Mahomes' most challenging to date. He dealt with a ton of upheaval and unforced errors, especially in the passing game. Still, Mahomes managed to produce above-average metrics almost across the board.

His completion percentage was significantly impacted by drops, and costly turnovers (many of them not attributable to Mahomes) negatively affected his EPA per game. Nevertheless, his true drive success rate remained among the top-ten quarterbacks this season. Mahomes ranked eighth in touchdown passes and sixth in passing yards. He ranked eighth in QBR and first in true completion percentage. Despite a departure from his typical fantasy scoring heights (he finished 10th in fantasy points per game this year), Mahomes remains an elite quarterback at the helm of an offense that, while inconsistent, retains the potential for explosiveness in a one-game sample.